Dangerous turn: On Russia, Ukraine, escalating attacks

Russia’s allegation that Ukraine launched a massive drone attack on President Vladimir Putin’s country residence in the Novgorod region marks a deeply concerning moment in the nearly four-year-long war. Moscow claims that 91 long-range drones targeted the heavily fortified protected residence in northwestern Russia, a site previously used by Soviet leaders Joseph Stalin and Nikita Khrushchev. Russia has released a video of what it says is a downed drone and handed drone data to the U.S. claiming that it “proves” that Ukraine targeted Mr. Putin’s home. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed the allegation as fabricated. American media have reported, citing CIA officials, that Ukraine did not target the residence. But the CIA is an ally of Ukraine in the war and its assessment may not be viewed as entirely impartial. Ukraine has previously carried out sabotage operations within and outside Russia. Take, for example, the bombing of the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022. It was initially blamed on Russia but led to the arrest of Ukrainian nationals in Poland and Italy last year. At the same time, it is Russia’s responsibility to present credible evidence that Ukraine targeted the residence. But regardless of where the truth lies, the damage is already done. The fact that such accusations are being made — and believed by some world leaders — signals that the war has entered an alarmingly volatile phase.

The timing of these allegations is also significant. Russia’s claim came close on the heels of Mr. Zelenskyy’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Florida during which Washington reportedly offered security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a peace agreement. Mr. Trump had initially proposed a 28-point plan to which Ukraine responded with a 20-point plan. There were marathon talks involving U.S., Russian, European and Ukrainian officials. The alleged Ukrainian attack in Novgorod has dealt a blow to the fragile peace effort. Moscow has already said it will harden its negotiating position. Meanwhile, on New Year’s eve, three Ukrainian drones struck a cafe and a hotel in Khorly in the Russian-held Kherson region, killing at least 27 people, including a child, and injuring over 50 others. Russia has intensified its strikes on Ukraine in recent months, leaving the country facing severe power shortages at the peak of winter. Taken together, the escalating attacks and the controversy surrounding Mr. Putin’s residence should serve as urgent reminders to all parties that de-escalation cannot be delayed. If the war spirals, it poses grave risks to Europe and the world given the involvement of nuclear powers on both sides. The U.S., which is driving the peace talks, must redouble diplomatic efforts while maintaining pressure on Moscow and Kyiv to step back.