With the remains of one hostage still in Gaza, the first phase of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas is nearly complete, after a two-month process plagued by delays and finger-pointing.
Now, the key players — including Israel, the Palestinian militant Hamas group, the United States and a diverse list of international parties — are to move to a far more complicated second phase that could reshape the Middle East.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan — which was approved by the U.N. Security Council — lays out a vision for ending Hamas’ rule of Gaza. If successful, it would see the rebuilding of a demilitarised Gaza under international supervision, normalised relations between Israel and the Arab world and a possible pathway to Palestinian independence.
But if the deal stalls, Gaza could be trapped in an unstable limbo for years to come, with Hamas remaining in control of parts of the territory, Israel’s army enforcing an open-ended occupation and its residents stuck homeless, unemployed, unable to travel abroad and dependent on international aid to stay alive.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the Prime Minister of Qatar and a key mediator, said over the weekend that the ceasefire is at a critical point, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to travel to the White House this month to discuss the next steps.
Ceasefire’s next phase and possible challenges
Troops for Gaza: Mr. Trump’s plan calls for the formation of an international force — known as International Stabilization Force — to maintain security and train Palestinian police to one day to take over. That force has not yet been formed, and a deployment date has not been announced.
Some countries — including Egypt, Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan and Indonesia — have expressed willingness to participate. But no firm decisions have been made.
A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic talks, says partner countries are holding meetings this month to finalise operations. He predicted “boots on the ground” in early 2026.
The force’s command structure and authorities remain unknown.
Hamas says it will oppose any attempts by the force to disarm it, and contributing nations may not want to risk clashes to take away its weapons. Israel, meanwhile, is hesitant to trust an international body with its security needs.
Board of Peace: Mr. Trump has said he will head an international board to supervise a committee of Palestinian technocrats running Gaza’s day-to-day affairs. The board will oversee reconstruction and an open-ended reform process by the Palestinian authority, with the goal of one day allowing the internationally recognised authority to govern Gaza.
So far, Mr. Trump is the only board member officially named, though former British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s name has been floated as a possibility. Another U.S. official, also speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss closed-door deliberations, says members of the board will be announced in the coming weeks.
The key challenge will be forming a board that can work with Israel, Hamas, the mediators and international aid agencies.
Reconstruction: Mr. Trump’s plan calls for an economic development plan to “rebuild and energise Gaza,” which suffered widespread destruction during the war and where most of the territory’s 2 million people are displaced and unemployed.
Still, no such plan has been announced. Egypt is expected to host a conference this month for donor nations to pledge reconstruction aid.
The United Nations has estimated the cost of rebuilding Gaza would amount to $70 billion. Raising that money will be difficult. Even more difficult would be finding a plan acceptable to the many governments involved, along with their private sector partners.
Disarmament: The ceasefire deal calls for Hamas to surrender all of its weapons under the supervision of international monitors. Militants who disarm will be granted amnesty and the option to leave Gaza.
However, Hamas, whose ideology is based on armed resistance against Israel, says it will not disarm until Israel ends its occupation of Palestinian territories.
Bassem Naim, a senior Hamas official, told The Associated Press that the group is open to “freezing or storing” its weapons while a political process takes place, perhaps over many years. It is unclear whether that is sufficient for Israel.
Failure to disarm Hamas could lead to renewed fighting with Israel, clashes with international troops and block progress on the rest of the peace plan.
A Palestinian government: The Palestinians are to form a “technocratic, apolitical” committee to run daily affairs in Gaza, under the supervision of the Board of Peace.
The committee’s members have not been announced and Israel’s opposition to having any Palestinians connected to Hamas or the Palestinian Authority on it could make choosing them more difficult.
It is also not clear if the committee will give Palestinians any real voice in the government or will exist only to implement decisions by the Board of Peace. If the committee is seen as just a façade, it risks not gaining public support and some figures may balk at joining it.
Israeli withdrawals: Under the ceasefire, Israel is to withdraw from all of Gaza, with the exception of a small buffer zone along the border. At the moment, Israel retains control of just over half of Gaza.
The plan says further withdrawals will be based upon “standards, milestones and timeframes linked to demilitarisation” to be negotiated by Israel, the U.S., the international force and other “guarantors.” There are no firm timelines for further withdrawals, and Israel may refuse to pull back further. Its military chief, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, called the so-called Yellow Line that divides the Israeli-held part of Gaza from the rest a “new border” that would serve as a “forward defensive line for our communities.”
Palestinian Authority: The plan calls for a reform of the Palestinian Authority, which runs the West Bank, and create conditions for a “credible pathway” to Palestinian statehood.
Palestinian officials have met with Mr. Blair and U.S. officials, and have said they have begun reforms in key areas such as corruption, the education system and payments to families of prisoners convicted in attacks on Israelis.
Israel rejects the creation of a Palestinian State, opposes any role for the authority in postwar Gaza and may oppose attempts to bring it in even if some reforms are made. Without a pathway to statehood, any Palestinian support for the new system could crumble. The plan also offers no clear benchmarks or timelines for the reform process.
