INR to stay at its current low of ₹89 to ₹90 till December 25: Experts

The rupee opened the month with a fresh low of ₹89.7 a dollar and is expected to maintain this level till December 2025, according to experts.

This is the fourth consecutive session in which the rupee has depreciated against the dollar. A delayed U.S.-India trade deal, non-intervention from the RBI and a widening trade deficit are the reasons behind the depreciation, according to Dilip Parmar, Senior Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

The rupee has been on a declining trend since May 2025, and it hit a fresh low at the end of August at a little more than ₹88 per dollar. After this, analysts forecast that if the central bank did not step in at ₹89 a dollar, it would go as high as ₹90 a dollar.

In November 2025, the rupee was down 0.8% while the dollar was also depreciating, marking a “puzzling” trend, Aditi Gupta, Economist at BoB research, wrote. “Annualised daily volatility was just 1.4% in the first half but increased to 4.9% in the second half,” Ms. Gupta said.

While the widening trade deficit is cited as a factor, she said that the depreciation this time was more a result of the sentiments of traders in the backdrop of uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-India trade deal. “Receding FPI interest in Indian equities has also added to the depreciating currency,” she added.

If the uncertainty continues, the rupee will stay at ₹89 to ₹90 a dollar, the experts concluded.