“Ukraine may find itself facing a very difficult choice,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday. “Either loss of dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner,” he added, referring to the 28-point peace plan presented to Kyiv by the Trump administration. U.S. President Donald Trump, whose team drafted the proposal in consultation with Russian officials, says he expects a response from Ukraine by Thanksgiving (Nov. 26). Mr. Zelenskyy remains cautious, at least publicly, saying that he would continue to work “calmly” with the U.S.
The Trump plan addresses both Russia’s security concerns and Ukraine’s demand for security guarantees, but it also acknowledges the facts on the ground which favour Moscow. Russia now controls more than 20% of Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory. Besides Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula which Russia annexed through a referendum in February 2014, Moscow has annexed four more Ukrainian oblasts — Donetsk, Luhansk (which make up the Donbas region), Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Of these four, Russia currently controls more than 80% of Donbas, and more than half of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Ukraine had recently agreed to freeze the war along the current frontline, but Russia always insisted that peace should come with a comprehensive agreement addressing “the root causes” of the conflict. Russia wanted recognition for the territories it has captured, sanctions to be removed and commitment from Ukraine and the West that Kyiv would not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
According to Mr. Trump’s draft plan, which was leaked to the media, Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised “as de facto Russian”. , including by the U.S. Ukraine will have to withdraw troops from the part of Donetsk that it currently controls, which will then be used as a buffer between Russia and Ukraine. The line of contact in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen—which means Russia will keep the territories of these two oblasts that it has captured. Russia will relinquish the territories it has seized other than the five oblasts (in Kharkiv and Ddnipropetrovsk). Ukraine will also have to limit the size of its armed forces to 600,000 personnel (according to some estimates, Ukraine now has some 900,000 active duty personnel).
The most contentious point besides territory was the role of NATO. As of now, Ukraine doesn’t have a pragmatic path towards NATO membership. The Trump administration has already stated, on a number of occasions, that Ukraine was unlikely to be a NATO member. But Ukraine has not officially given up its desire to join the trans-Atlantic security alliance. According to the Trump plan, however, Ukraine should enshrine in its Constitution that it will not join NATO, and the bloc should include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future (but Ukraine can join the EU). “It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further,” reads another point in the plan. Russia and NATO will also initiate dialogue, under the mediation of the U.S., to resolve “all security issues”.
Security guarantees
If peace prevails, the U.S. promises to reintegrate Russia into the global economy. Sanctions on Russia could be lifted and the country could rejoin the G8 grouping (Russia was expelled from the grouping after the annexation of Crimea), and enter a long-term economic cooperation agreement with the U.S. Moscow will have to enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine. “If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked,” reads the document.
While the 28-point proposal says Ukraine will receive “reliable security guarantees”, it doesn’t offer details about the promise. But the Trump administration has circulated another draft agreement dealing only with the security part. The three-point plan, which needs the approval of Ukraine, Russia, the U.S., the EU and NATO, promises NATO-style security assurances to Ukraine for up to 10 years, which can be renewed by mutual agreement. A significant and sustained armed attack by Russia on Ukraine “shall be regarded as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community,” reads the document. Countermeasures “may include armed force, intelligence and logistical assistance, economic and diplomatic actions, and other steps judged appropriate”.
The Kremlin has responded positively to the proposal. Mr. Trump says Ukraine “must accept” it as it offers a chance for peace. An agreement could quickly bring the war to an end and offer the much needed security guarantees for Ukraine against potential future conflicts. But for that, Kyiv will have to cede territories, recognise the Russian control of its eastern region and relinquish its bid for NATO. Is Mr. Zelenskyy ready for it yet?
Published – November 23, 2025 02:56 am IST
