No deal with U.S. ever final, India should secure its own interests: trade analyst

The lesson India should learn from U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs on Chinese goods is that no deal with the U.S. is final and that India should focus on building self-reliance while continuing to balance its relations with the Western as well as BRICS economies, according to former Director General of Foreign Trade Ajay Srivastava.

Mr. Trump on October 10 announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, 2025, raising the overall tariff rate on Chinese imports to roughly 130%. The U.S. move came in response to Beijing’s October 9 decision to impose new controls on rare earth exports.

Under the new Chinese rules, any product containing more than 0.1% China-origin rare earths or produced using Chinese refining or magnet-making technology would require the Chinese government’s approval before it is exported. China controls more than 70% of the global rare-earth refining capacity.

“For India, the message is clear: no deal with the U.S. is ever final,” Mr. Srivastava, also the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said in a note. “The much-publicised U.S.-China “Phase One” trade deal of 2025, which capped U.S. tariffs at 30% and China’s at 10%, has already been overtaken by the new 100% duty order.”

He added that India must negotiate carefully and on equal terms for its own trade deal with the U.S. 

“Rather than relying on shifting U.S. promises, New Delhi should focus on building self-reliance in critical technologies and minerals, insulating its economy from future trade shocks while leveraging its neutral position to strengthen ties with both Western and BRICS economies,” Mr. Srivastava added.

India’s negotiations with the U.S. have recently gone through considerable upheaval. The latest formal round of negotiations towards a Bilateral Trade Agreement was to have taken place in August. However, it was indefinitely postponed in light of the cumulative 50% tariffs the US that month imposed on Indian imports. 

Since then, attempts to thaw relations have been made, with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal visiting the U.S. in late September to meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. However, the next date of formal negotiations are yet to be announced.