What do Trump’s early decrees signal?

U.S. President Donald Trump signed a number of executive orders and actions into force in the early days of his second term in office, which began when he was sworn in on January 20. Following multiple promises made on the campaign trail leading up to the 2024 presidential election, Mr. Trump controversially issued a spree of executive orders in the first week itself.

What are some of the orders issued?

Mr. Trump issued over 1,500 pardons to individuals prosecuted for their role in the riot at the U.S. Capitol in 2021, alongside orders mandating the U.S.’s exit from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization (WHO). He also signed an order ending birthright citizenship, protected under the U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment, for children of undocumented migrants and those on temporary visas. He proposed a 100% conditional tariff on BRICS nations and a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, from February 1, while declaring a national emergency on the U.S.’s southern border with Mexico.

He also reversed 78 executive orders and memoranda of his predecessor, Joe Biden. While each of these decrees will likely impact the governance paradigm of the U.S., some, if not most, of these executive orders will face legal challenges and may ultimately be reversed. The broader Trump political agenda is nevertheless expected to significantly change the status quo in the U.S. over the coming four years, in the realms of domestic and foreign policy.

Why did Trump pardon the rioters?

Speaking at a news conference regarding his “blanket pardon that effectively freed all the rioters and erased the work of the largest criminal investigation in U.S. history”, Mr. Trump said, “These people have already served years in prison, and they have served them viciously. It’s a disgusting prison. It’s been horrible. It’s inhumane. It’s been a terrible, terrible thing.”

The grant of clemency came despite the January 6 Congressional investigation running for two years, between 2021-23, and its committee interviewing over 1,000 people and reviewing more than a million documents. At the end of the enquiry, the courts charged more than 1,500 people associated with the attack on the U.S. Capitol, including former leaders of the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys, convicted of seditious conspiracy and violent acts.

Lawyers for these defendants were themselves said to be “pleasantly surprised” by Mr. Trump’s pardons given that Vice President J.D. Vance had recently said that only non-violent offenders would get relief, and Mr. Trump’s Attorney General pick Pam Bondi noted in Congress earlier that she did not believe that violent rioters ought to be pardoned.

What are the implications of the immigration crackdown?

On the one hand, the attempted reading down of the 14th Amendment has already been challenged in court by 22 States, and is likely to fail, according to legal experts. A federal judge in Seattle, Washington, has already described Mr. Trump’s executive order ending birthright citizenship as “blatantly unconstitutional” and issued a temporary restraining order to block it for at least two weeks while awaiting further briefings on the overall legal challenge.

However, the immigration raids that Mr. Trump promised vociferously during his campaign have begun in earnest. With over 21 actions issued towards overhauling the immigration system, and “mass deportations” and arrests promised, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement has already deported 1,000 individuals and detained 5,000 in the State of Texas, in some cases flying them out on military aircraft with the cooperation of the Department of Defense.

Mr. Trump has said on several occasions that he is in favour of legal migration even if he intends to close the U.S. border to undocumented migrants. While the President and his billionaire supporter Elon Musk have often spoken out in favour of temporary work visas for skilled migrants, including the H-1B visa, which applicants from India are most frequently granted, some members of the more conservative wing of the Republican Party have opposed any expansion in the H-1B quotas and have argued for bringing back jobs for American workers.

What could the impact of the U.S. exit from global pacts be?

Under the first Trump term, from 2016-20, the U.S. exited the Paris Climate Agreement — a move that was reversed by Mr. Biden on his first day in office with the implication that the U.S. had once again committed itself to cutting carbon emissions and pursuing clean energy sources, including by setting limits on pollution by motor vehicle emissions, methane from industrial processes, and coal-fired power plants. On his first day in office, Mr. Trump again exited the Paris pact, describing it as an “unfair, one-sided… rip-off”, and pointing out that “the U.S. will not sabotage our own industries while China pollutes with impunity.”

With the war cry of “Drill, baby, drill!”, Mr. Trump has gone further to declare a “national energy emergency”, which is not only a signal of Mr. Trump’s promise of energy expansion but specifically opens the door to the “federal use of eminent domain and the Defense Production Act,” which would allow the government to take charge of private lands and other resources to produce goods that might be deemed to be a national necessity.

However, not only does this mean that the U.S. will officially halt all contributions towards limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but it also does so at the peril of ever more climatic events with a profound impact on the country. This has already been happening with increasing frequency, including 2024 being the U.S.’s hottest year on record, major wildfires burning in Los Angeles, and hurricanes devastating communities from North Carolina to Florida.

Why do Trump’s early orders matter for bipartisan prospects in the U.S.?

The tenor of the second Trump administration in terms of its early policy agenda appears to be fundamentally hostile to the progressive agenda of the Democrats. To an extent, that is expected, as the two major parties have always diverged considerably on policy subjects such as the economy, immigration and reproductive rights. However, previous Republican governments would regularly seek to build bridges with Democratic lawmakers in Congress and in States to build bipartisan consensus across critical political issues rather than risk stalemates and fruitless conflicts over policy priorities and funding.

What is significant about Mr. Trump’s second victory, however, is the fact that he now enjoys a federal government trifecta and a sympathetic Supreme Court stacked 6-3 in favour of conservatives. This implies that Mr. Trump and his administration need to rely even less on support from across the aisle than they did during their first term. Further, he has clearly been emboldened by the fact that he won such a wide election victory encompassing most demographic cohorts of voters, to the point where even unconventional policy priorities have started to enter the proposed policy agenda. He has announced plans to take over the Panama Canal, de-recognise transgender rights, and Washington has threatened Denmark with its intention to take over Greenland, and the possibility of a ban on travellers from certain countries entering the U.S.