Will the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip hold? | Explained

Smoke rises inside the Gaza Strip, before a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas goes into effect, as seen from southern Israel, January 18, 2025.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The story so far: After 15 months of fighting, which was triggered by Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack in which about 1,200 people were killed, Israel and Hamas have accepted a ceasefire in Gaza. On Saturday, Israel’s 24-member cabinet gave approval to the agreement, which is expected to be implemented in three phases. The deal, which came into force on Sunday, was reached in talks mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the U.S. If it holds, it would provide a desperately needed relief for Gaza, the tiny strip along the Mediterranean Sea which was relentlessly bombed by Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) over the past 15 months in which over 46,000 Palestinians were killed and almost the entire population of the enclave displaced.

What are the terms?

The deal is to be implemented in three phases. In the 42-day first phase, Hamas will release 33 hostages, most of those alive, and Israel will free roughly 1,000 Palestinian security prisoners. Israel will also partially withdraw the IDF from Gaza, and allow the entry of about 600 trucks of humanitarian aid into the enclave every day. The IDF is expected to withdraw from the Netzarim Corridor, which separates northern Gaza, which has seen massive Israeli bombardment from Day one of the war, from the south, where most of the enclave’s population have been pushed into. If the Israeli troops withdraw from Netzarim, it would allow some of the displaced Gazans to move from the south and centre to the north.

But in the first phase, Israeli troops will remain in the Philadelphi Corridor on the Rafah crossing — which means Israel will continue to monitor Gaza’s border with Egypt. On the 16th day of the first phase, discussions are expected to begin on the second phase. If the first phase is implemented as per plan, 65 hostages will still be in Hamas’s captivity and Israeli troops will still be there at Philadelphi and some buffer zones in Gaza. In the second stage, Hamas will be required to release most of the remaining living hostages and both sides should declare a permanent end to the hostilities. The third phase will involve discussions on the ‘day after’.

Why did both parties accept a ceasefire now?

The deal accepted by both parties is not essentially different from the deal offered eight months ago. Hamas had announced earlier that it would accept a deal, provided the war is brought to a permanent end.

In May, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed the agreement, saying Israel would continue its military offensive in Gaza until it meets its objectives.

But a lot has changed in the region since.

Israel now believes its regional standing has become stronger. Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia organisation, has lost most of its top leadership in Israeli attacks. The IDF has killed most of the leaders of Hamas, including Yahya Sinwar. Israel carried out a massive air strike in Iran in October, targeting the Islamic Republic’s air defences and other military facilities (to which Iran hasn’t responded yet). More importantly, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria has further weakened Iran’s so-called ‘axis of resistance’ in West Asia. Mr. Assad’s Syria was the land bridge between Iran and Hezbollah. Since this land bridge is disrupted, Hezbollah will find it difficult to rearm itself. These developments have also strengthened Mr. Netanyahu’s political standing at home.

These factors probably influenced him to change his position about a deal with Hamas. But that’s not all.

After months of fighting, Israel failed to meet its declared objectives in Gaza. When he launched the war, Mr. Netanyahu said Israel would dismantle Hamas. Israeli attacks have degraded Hamas’s militant infrastructure, but Hamas reinvented itself as an insurgency, its original avatar. Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, recently said the American assessment was that Hamas recruited as many fighters as it had lost.

The inability to meet its objectives through military means might also have influenced Israel’s leaders to take a more pragmatic view of pausing the conflict and getting the hostages freed. Then, there is the Trump factor.

What role did the U.S. play?

The Biden administration has been pushing for a ceasefire for long, but it also offered full support to Israel’s war in Gaza. Washington continues to supply weapons to Israel and offer diplomatic protection to Israel at global fora. Mr. Biden’s refusal to use effective pressure tactics on Israel meant that the latter continued the war despite Washington’s public call and private diplomatic push for a ceasefire. But now, Mr. Biden can claim that a ceasefire was reached just days before he left the White House. Arab and Israeli media claim that the Trump factor also played a key role. Donald Trump had earlier said that “all hell will break loose” if there was no agreement between Israel and Hamas before he takes office on January 20 as the 47th President of the U.S. Mr. Trump’s West Asia envoy Steve Witkoff had met the negotiators and the Israeli leadership last week. Times of Israel reported, quoting Arab officials, that Mr. Witkoff managed to achieve in a single meeting more than what President Biden did the whole year.

Mr. Trump is known for his pro-Israel positions. But he had promised during his campaign that he would bring the wars in West Asia and Ukraine to an end if returned to the White House. If the war is brought to an end, besides the humanitarian angle, it would offer some stability to West Asia. Mr. Trump may not like the U.S. being drawn into another never-ending war in the region. Also, if the Israel-Hamas war pauses, the Houthis of Yemen could stop attacking Israel and the ships passing through the Red Sea. Both the U.S. and Israel carried out air strikes against the Houthis in recent months but failed to stop their attacks.

If the Red Sea calms down, normal freight traffic through the Suez Canal could resume, tamping down the inflationary pressure on the global economy.

Why is Phase 3 going to be a challenge?

As of now, the focus of both parties would be on implementing the first phase — which has a fair chance of being implemented. The second phase could see the exchange of more hostages for prisoners. But the real challenge would be Phase 3. Hamas has demanded a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. Israel now realises that it cannot dismantle Hamas — the organisation would survive in one way or another. On a more practical note, Israel doesn’t want to leave Hamas as a ruling or fighting force in Gaza. This poses a dilemma for Israel. If it agrees to end the war and leave Gaza, Hamas would remain a militant insurgency in Gaza. If Israel continues to stay in Gaza, there won’t be a lasting ceasefire agreement and a war of attrition will go on.