Strong rebound in exports, but import bill hits all-time high in October

Between April and October, India’s non-petroleum exports surged to the highest ever tally of $211.3 billion, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

India’s goods exports, that had clocked an anaemic 1% uptick in the first half of 2024-25, began the second half on a strong note with October shipments jumping at a 28-month high pace of 17.25% to touch $39.2 billion, this year’s second best-tally.

However, this was accompanied by a 3.9% rise in the country’s merchandise import bill, lifting it to a fresh record high of $66.34 billion, eclipsing this August’s $64.34 billion import figure that was the highest at the time.

The merchandise trade deficit has thus widened from a five-month low of $20.8 billion in September to $27.14 billion in October, the second highest so far this financial year and the third highest ever.

Economists attributed the spike in the import bill primarily to higher gold and oil imports. Although the precious yellow metal’s imports dropped a marginal 1.4% from last October to $7.13 billion, this was 62% higher than September’s figure.

Petroleum imports

Petroleum imports, on the other hand, rose 13.3% year-on-year to $18.3 billion, and were 46.4% over the previous month’s $12.5 billion. This coincided with a continuous decline in petroleum exports, which slipped 22.1% in October to $4.58 billion, below September’s figure of $4.7 billion, which had marked a 32-month low.

The Commerce Secretary, Sunil Barthwal, however, downplayed the import bill rise and highlighted the trade trends beyond the petroleum basket. Between April and October, India’s non-petroleum exports surged to the highest ever tally of $211.3 billion, and if this trend continues, India’s total exports, including services, will cross the $800 billion mark this year to set a new record, he remarked.

“A key factor for the 17%-plus growth in exports could be improved demand for this Christmas from developed markets as firms start stocking up inventories for the festival. This demand seems far better than last year and gives us confidence that the coming months will also see a healthy uptick,” the top trade official said.

“If you look at the UNCTAD and the World Trade Organisation projections for this year, they are very pessimistic. But despite the global situation being highly volatile, growth in the Western countries slowing with some recessionary trends, and the disruptions in global trade routes, our exporters have been able to do well in several sectors,” he emphasised.

Citing healthy double-digit growth in exports of engineering goods, chemicals, electronics, rice, and labour-intensive sectors such as readymade garments and textiles, the Commerce Secretary said this demonstrated that India’s strategy of focusing on certain sectors and countries was now yielding results, along with its approach to industrial policy, trade policy, and foreign policy, and manufacturing competitiveness had improved.