Will the electoral bout in Channapatna end in a cliffhanger?

Nikhil Kumaraswamy
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A cracker of a contest is under way as film actors-turned-politicians battle it out in the Channapatna Assembly constituency that has drawn Statewide attention, and the byelection results here are expected to have consequences on the Vokkaliga-dominated politics in the region.

While Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar is looking to avenge the defeat of his brother D.K. Suresh in the Bengaluru Rural Lok Sabha constituency, Union Minister for Heavy Industries and Steel H.D. Kumaraswamy not only is keen to consolidate his position among the Vokkaligas but is also trying to revive the political fortunes of his son. The byelection was necessitated as Mr. Kumaraswamy vacated the seat after winning the Lok Sabha election from Mandya.

C.P. Yogeshwar
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The political heavyweight in the district and five-time legislator C.P. Yogeshwar quit the BJP to join the Congress in a last-minute party-hopping and is pitted against Nikhil Kumaraswamy, who is in the electoral fray to test his luck for the third time. He lost the Lok Sabha election in Mandya in 2019 and the Assembly election in Ramanagara in 2023. Incidentally, both have had careers in Kannada films and have lost two previous elections.

Though lack of employment opportunities locally is strongly felt and the constituency faces long-pending development issues, the byelection is being fought on political and individual achievements. While the JD(S) claims credit for constructing the Iggalur barrage that is serving water needs, Mr. Yogeshwar claims credit for filling 17 tanks using water from the barrage.

Narrow margin?

The intense election in this constituency is likely to be marked by a narrow-margin victory while pollsters are also expecting the polling percentage to go up. In 2023, the voter turnout was a little over 85%. “The byelection is being fought like a gram panchayat election where every vote counts.,” said Suresh Shivabasavaiah, a JD(S) worker at Kodamballi.

Women, who outnumber male voters in the constituency, will hold the key, and the Congress is hoping that the guarantees, especially the Gruha Lakhsmi and Shakti, would attract women voters. While the Vokkaligas constitute nearly half of the total 2.3 lakh voters, Muslim and backward-class voters are being seen as crucial. Kuruba, Bestha, Tigala, and Urs communities comprise the main backward-class votes. Scheduled Caste voters are also in good numbers. The JD(S), which derives strength from its Vokkaliga voter base, is trying to break into the backward-class votes while it is also strategising to convince Muslim voters, many of whom had backed JD(S) till 2023 before the regional party moved into an alliance with the BJP. The Congress, which is believed to have polled about 85,00 votes in the 2024 parliamentary election, believes it has the potential to wrest the seat from the JD(S), with the consolidation of Muslim and backward-class votes along with the division of Vokkaliga votes.

The last-minute hopping to the Congress and change of symbol will neither deter nor confuse voters, insists Mr. Yogeshwar, who is accompanied by Mr. Suresh, former Bengaluru Rural MP. He claims there is a dedicated voter base of about 75,000 for him. “I have proved it in every election. The symbol does not matter much.” For the young Mr. Nikhil Kumaraswamy, support is coming in a big way from his family — grandfather and former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda and father, Mr. Kumaraswamy — besides the entire JD(S) machinery and a host of BJP leaders backing him.

Though the JD(S) and the BJP saw their elected councillors in the Channapatna Municipal Council jumping ship to the Congress, JD(S) leaders say they were already with the Congress during parliamentary elections and their desertion will not have much consequence. Amid the heated battle, Channapatna grassroots politics is also witnessing a silent churn. With Mr. Yogeshwar joining the Congress, political equations in villages that are his stronghold are also changing.

While JD(S) and BJP workers call Mr. Yogeshwar a “jumping star” for his party-hopping antics over the decades, his supporters hit back and ask if Mr. Nikhil Kumaraswamy was not a “jumping star” for his constituency-hopping, pointing at Mandya and Ramanagara elections where he has lost. Gavi Shetty of Vitlenahalli pointed out that the JD(S) itself has changed positions once being with the Congress and now being with the BJP.