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India’s GDP growth is likely to have slowed to a six-quarter low of 6% in the April-June period, rating agency ICRA reckoned, citing a decline in urban consumers’ confidence levels as well as a dip in government capital expenditure.
Gross Value Added (GVA) in the economy is also expected to have eased to 5.7% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2024-25, from 6.3% in the previous quarter, with a slowdown in industrial activity driving most of the decline.
While growth in industry GVA is projected at 6.4% in Q1, down from 8.4% in January-March period, services GVA expansion is pegged at 6.5%, compared with 6.7% in the preceding three months. ICRA projected a minor uptick in farm GVA — from 0.6% in the final quarter of the last fiscal year to 1% in Q1.
“Urban consumer confidence reported a surprising downtick in the May 2024 (and July 2024) rounds of the central bank’s consumer confidence survey,” ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar noted. “The heat wave also affected footfalls in various services sectors, even as it boosted electricity demand,” she added, terming the blip in Q1 a ‘transient moderation’.
