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With majority of exit polls predicting a third term for Narendra Modi in the general elections, a state of exuberance gripped the Indian stock markets on Monday, and the key benchmark indices, the S&P BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty-50, surged over 3.3% to their all-time high.
The Sensex gained 2,507.47 points or 3.39% to 76,468.78, its all-time closing high. During intraday trade, the index had touched its all-time mark of 76,738.89.
PSU and banking stocks led the gains at BSE. NTPC was up 9.21%, followed by State Bank (9.12%), Power Grid (8.97%), L&T (6.27%), Axis Bank (5.68%) and Reliance (5.65%).
The Nifty-50 index too surged 733.20 points or 3.25% to 23,263.90, its all-time closing high, led by Adani Ports, which gained 10.62%.
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The euphoria was about continuity of the present government at the Centre led by Mr. Modi as predicted by over half a dozen exit polls.
“The optimism over exit polls pushed the market to a new high. Major sectors rose, and small and mid-cap stocks also saw significant gains. Reliance closed at a new high,” said Vikram Kasat, head, advisory, Prabhudas Lilladher, a brokerage firm.
He said buying was witnessed across Adani counters, with Adani Ports and Adani Power as the biggest gainers.
“The bulls maintained their grip on Dalal Street, with the Sensex and Nifty opening at record highs. Following the general election exit poll, the market saw broad-based buying, with the expectation that the BJP will return to power,” said Neeraj Sharma, AVP, Technical & Derivatives Research at Asit C Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd.
Monday’s show was mostly led by retail investors and domestic institutions, while Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) preferred to wait for the actual outcome on Tuesday.
According to Pratik Gupta, CEO & Co-Head, Kotak Institutional Equities, some investors, “especially the Foreign Portfolio Investors [FPIs], are still waiting for the final results before they act.”
“If the actual election result is in line with the exit poll predictions, there is set to be further upside in the short term,” Mr. Gupta added.
“All sectoral indices closed in the green, with capital goods, PSU banks, oil and gas, power, and real estate up 5-7%,” he added.
However, some analysts have cautioned about the likely volatility on Tuesday when the actual outcome would be announced.
“As we await the official election results, significant volatility is expected,” said Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
Rupak De, senior technical analyst, LKP Securities, said, “The sentiment remains highly dependent on the election results tomorrow [Tuesday]. If the election results align with the exit poll or fall below the exit poll numbers, it might attract mild to heavy selling pressure in the overall market.”
“However, if the results are better than expected — meaning if the NDA secures significantly more seats than the average exit poll numbers — then the Nifty might embrace another round of buoyant movement,” he added.
