The timing of PM Modi’s visit to the UN makes it even more interesting – this is the 4th time Mr Modi has travelled to UN during what’s called High Level Week – after 2014, 2019 and 2021., although he will not address the UN General Assembly this year.
Here’s what’s on the agenda:
1. Quad Summit with US President Biden, Japan PM Kishida and Australian PM Albanese. The Quad is expected to be a warm send-off for 2 leaders who are retiring soon- Biden and Kishida. PM is meeting them in Wilmington Delaware before he heads to New York. What to Watch for: Modi’s statement on India’s role in Russia-Ukraine peacemaking, Quad joint Statement on China, and on any kind of military or maritime partnership involving the navies.
2. UN Summit of the Future: SoTF is an important initiative by the UN Secretary General to consider where the world body needs to improve, reforms and other issues: A Pact of the Future will be signed. What to Watch for: Which other leaders Modi meets on the sidelines– incl Bangladesh, Ukraine, Israel will be important. Also, a meeting of the G4 Brazil, Germany, India, Japan grouping will be significant on UNSC expansion that they have all a joint proposal on.
3. Diaspora event: PM Modi is back to do a massive diaspora event in a stadium for the first time since 2019 and the Howdy Modi event in Texas. This time it is an event called “Modi and US: Progress together”- a slightly personalized title- but meant to be a rally for the diaspora- with around 16,000 expected in the audience at the Nassau Colliseum in New York. What to watch for: Will there be political messaging of the kind we saw in Texas with Abki Baar…? Also will there also be protests of the kind he faced in 2019 and 2021 by other members of the diaspora?
There is also the case about an alleged India intelligence plot against diaspora Khalistani leader Pannun- the DoJ trial is underway and a New York court has issued summons in a civil case against NSA Doval, who will accompany Modi to the US, as well as 3 others.
4. Meetings with Business leaders: According to the MEA schedule- Modi will focus on meetings CEOs of companies at the cutting edge of Artificial Intelligence, semiconductors, quantum computing, biotechnology also . What to Watch: Which business leaders will Modi meet – all eyes will be on Tesla, X and Starlink owner Elon Musk?
Finally, given the visit is so close to US elections, will the PM meet either or both the presidential contenders Donald Trump and Kamala Harris?
When asked about whether Mr. Modi is indeed meeting Trump, and whether he will meet Harris too, here is what Foreign Secretary Misri said that no meeting had been fixed thus far: “On the remarks that have been made by former President Trump and whether they will come up in a discussion, I think we first need to work our way through to fixing a meeting and then look at the issues.”
Clearly Trump misspoke or spoke prematurely there. So how is the race going?
A dead heat- the latest New York Polls says voters are tied 47% each between Trump and Harris- In the average of polls, Kamala Harris is 2% ahead of Donald Trump.
In the battleground map however- Trump still has an edge but, after the First TV Debate between Trump and Harris, where she won by all accounts, Harris is getting closer. It all comes down to 7 swing states as they are known- Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina where Trump is ahead and Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where Harris leads.
We can see that the Modi-Trump bonhomie has been far greater than with Modi-Harris, despite Kamala Harris’s Indian parentage. Let’s just look at 5 issues that might make a difference:
Trade: As President Trump slapped new tariffs on India, withdrew India’s GSP status but tried to negotiate an FTA. Harris will not favour FTA negotiations, but the Biden administration did end all WTO disputes with India, and is likely to build on that. Both are likely to be protectionist, although Harris will make more exceptions for national security reasons.
China: Both will escalate the US-China rivalry and talk tough, however Trump will expect more in return from India for any agreements, and might insist on India stepping up to do more in the Quad as well.
Russia-Ukraine: A Harris administration will steer the course on Ukraine, and may want to encourage India to get involved in peace efforts, while Trump is likely to want to effect peace himself and won’t put pressure on India to cut ties with Russia.
Climate Change: A Harris administration will fund more renewable transition for India but will expect more in terms of climate action, whereas Trump will not be so worried about climate goals- and may push India into buying more US energy, and complete the Tellurian deal announced in 2019 but never done.
Immigration: While both will probably clamp down on illegal immigration and increase deportation, Trump will likely cut down on immigration for professionals from India as well. His comments at the debate on how he sees immigrants are the subject of memes like this one.
Human rights: Harris will continue the Democrat messaging on Human rights issues in India, esp as she is close to the progressives, Trump is not expected to take up human rights, NGOs, minority rights or democratic decline issues at all if he is elected.
Worldview take:
India-US share 25 years of year-on-year growth in ties, and while personal connections might differ at the leadership level, bilateral ties are set to be positive- no matter how negative and polarized the campaign in the US may get this point on.
Host: Suhasini Haidar
Production: Shibu Narayan and Sabika Syed
Published – September 20, 2024 11:55 pm IST
