Standing in his eight-acre rainfed farm in Aroor village of Sangareddy district in mid-July, P. Narasimhulu gently pulls out a black gram sapling from the parched soil. The frail plant barely reaches his ankle. Raising his hand nearly three feet above it, he says, “By now, it should have been this tall.”
Last monsoon, excess rain had washed away nearly ₹3 lakh that the 40-year-old tenant farmer had invested in his cotton crop. This year, it is the absence of rain that threatens to leave him counting losses again.
“I have spent around ₹60,000 for ploughing and ₹40,000 to sow black gram and redgram (kandi pappu) in eight acres this Vanakalam (rainy) season. There are no rains so far. If we receive good rains in the coming days, I might recover some of the investment. Else, I will lose ₹1 lakh,” says Mr. Narasimhulu, who cultivates leased land.
The vegetation growing between the crop rows offers another reminder of how little rain the fields have received. “We used to weed it out by this time,” he says, pointing to the stunted growth.
His anxiety is shared by several of farmers across Telangana, where a delayed southwest monsoon and the looming impact of El Niño have raised fears of crop losses, shrinking groundwater reserves and a difficult agricultural season. Farmers cultivating paddy, cotton, pulses, cereals, vegetables and fruits across the State have been waiting anxiously for sustained rainfall, worried not just about the current crop but also the seasons ahead.
The southwest monsoon reached Telangana on June 8 and covered the entire State only on June 23, after a delay of 15 days. Encouraged by the first showers, many farmers began sowing. But the rains failed to sustain, leaving fields dry and crops under stress.
Their concern is backed by data. According to the Agriculture Department’s recently released ‘El Niño Contingency Plan for Vanakalam 2026’, groundwater levels have already declined in 18 districts.
If the State receives 30% below-normal rainfall, groundwater levels are projected to fall from 9.46 metres below ground level (mbgl) in June to 10.35 mbgl in July and 11.01 mbgl in August.
Rainfall has also remained far below normal. Between June 1 and July 14, a total 27 of Telangana’s 33 districts recorded deficient rainfall while one district fell in the large-deficit category.
The situation is equally worrying in reservoirs. Most major, medium and minor irrigation reservoirs are at, or close to, their Minimum Draw Level. As per the contingency plan released on July 16, the available live storage is limited and sufficient mainly to meet essential needs such as drinking water supply, leaving little scope to provide irrigation unless the remaining monsoon brings substantial inflows.
For a State where agriculture remains a key source of livelihood, the implications are noteworthy. According to the Telangana Socio-Economic Outlook 2026, agriculture accounts for 41.5% of total employment in the State, compared with 22.2% in industry and 36.3% in services. In rural Telangana, nearly 62.6% of the population depends on agriculture and allied activities.
The burden is especially heavy on farmers who rely entirely on rainfall. Tenant farmers cultivating rainfed lands are among the most vulnerable, as irrigated lands command much higher lease rents than dry lands.
Political blame game and preparedness
Political differences over the crisis have sharpened as the dry spell continues.
Senior leaders of the main Opposition, Bharat Rashtra Samithi, accused the State government of creating an “artificial drought” by not operating the pumps at Kaleshwaram Lift Irrigation Scheme (KLIS).
The party’s Deputy Floor Leader, T. Harish Rao, said the project was conceived to ensure farmers would no longer remain at the mercy of uncertain monsoons if Godavari waters were lifted into Telangana’s reservoirs.
Irrigation Minister N. Uttam Kumar Reddy said the Medigadda, Annaram and Sundilla barrages of KLIS would not be permitted to operate until experts certified them as safe. He said the structural, technical, geological and geophysical studies recommended as part of the rehabilitation process following the damage to the barrages were nearing completion.
The State has begun preparing for a season that could require farmers to adapt to changing weather patterns rather than wait for the rains.
Telangana Irrigation and Civil Supplies Minister N. Uttam Kumar Reddy addressing a press conference on the State’s record-breaking Rabi paddy procurement season at the State Secretariat in Hyderabad.
| Photo Credit:
Siddhant Thakur
Through its El Niño contingency plan, the Agriculture Department has drawn up district-wise crop advisories for July and August based on soil type, urging farmers to switch to drought-resistant and less water-intensive crops.
Chief Minister A. Revanth Reddy on June 1 directed officials to educate farmers about shifting to crops that require less water, considering the below-normal rainfall forecast for the current monsoon.
For the second half of July, the plan recommends crops such as cotton, redgram and bajra across most districts.
In August, foxtail millet and redgram feature prominently among the suggested alternatives, along with short-duration crops including greengram, black gram, castor and select vegetables.
But one crop that is conspicuously absent from the list is paddy.
The paddy paradox
The omission is significant because paddy and cotton together accounted for a little over 87% of the 1.37 crore acres cultivated during Vanakalam 2025. Paddy alone covered 69.89 lakh acres. The total area sown during the previous kharif season was almost equal to Telangana’s net sown area of 1.38 crore acres in 2024-25, making for 50.13% of the State’s geographical area of 276.95 lakh acres, according to the Telangana Socio-Economic Outlook 2026.
According to Uttam Reddy, the State achieved a rare double of record paddy production and procurement in the 2025-26 kharif season. “We procured 71.64 lakh tonnes of paddy worth ₹19,000 crore during kharif, benefiting over 15 lakh farmers,” he said.
Farmers have largely stayed with the same crops they cultivated during the previous Vanakalam.
Compared with the corresponding period last year, the area under paddy till July 14 increased from 5,66,710 acres to 6,37,586 acres. Cotton acreage rose from 37,48,842 acres to 41,52,337 acres while redgram increased from 3,26,357 acres to 3,53,845 acres and soybean from 3,15,565 acres to 3,35,685 acres.
But as the days passed without adequate rainfall, the uncertainty that initially lingered over the fields began turning into visible anxiety.
In Wardhannapet mandal of Warangal district, 74-year-old farmer Bhukya Bala Kishan walks through his paddy nursery with a mixture of hope and worry. The seedlings are nearly ready for transplantation, but without adequate rainfall, they cannot be moved to the main field.
“We have been waiting for at least moderate rains to go ahead with the preparation of our fields for paddy transplantation, as the seedlings are almost ready. I am just hoping for the best, but officials say there may not be good rainfall this monsoon,” he laments, describing the drought-like conditions prevailing not only in his village but across several pockets of the erstwhile Warangal district.
“During a normal monsoon, I cultivate paddy on six acres and cotton on two acres. But the weather has been extremely harsh this year. The tanks and streams are dry, and the officials say water levels in the major dams and reservoirs are also below normal. As there is no water in the local tank this monsoon, I have been forced to borrow water from a neighbour to raise the paddy nursery,” he says.
His concerns mirror those of farmers across all districts (barring Mulugu) of the erstwhile Warangal region, where deficient rainfall has disrupted Vanakalam (kharif) sowing. Warangal and Hanumakonda districts have recorded rainfall deficits well above the State average, placing them among the worst-affected districts since June 1 this year.
A few kilometres away, in Mogilicherla village near Warangal city, 45-year-old farmer Bathini Venu has already altered his plans for the season. “While I own five acres of land, I have taken another four acres on lease. I have sown cotton on seven acres and left two acres meant for paddy untilled due to the non-availability of water in the local tank,” he says.
He has already invested nearly ₹1 lakh in land preparation and sowing. “Due to the non-availability of water, I am now irrigating the cotton crop using borewell water,” he says. “I pray for good rains in August, but I am not sure what will happen.”
The dependence on groundwater worries paddy farmers elsewhere too, many of whom fear that even if the current crop survives, water availability for the next crop cycle could become a challenge.
P. Narasimhulu, 40, a farmer from Aroor village in Sangareddy district, shows the stunted growth of crops in his field due to deficient rains this season.
| Photo Credit:
Nagara Gopal
The story is no different in Vikarabad district. Anantha Prabhakar Joshi (62), from Gokafasalawad village in Doultabad mandal, says his green gram crop on three acres has already dried up due to the prolonged dry spell. “I have sown the redgram in another three acres, but left another acre without tilling, in which we usually sow paddy due to non-availability of water in the borewell,” he says.
He urges the government to link the VB-G RAM G programme with agriculture to support farmers during drought-like situations.
In Vikarabad’s Amradi Kalan village, another farmer, Salauddin, says he chose not to cultivate cotton after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned of a weak monsoon. Instead, he planted kandi pappu on three acres.
“There will be a 50% loss from my kandi crop. If we receive bountiful rains from mid-July, I may avoid the remaining 50% loss and recover the money invested,” says Mr. Salauddin, who has access to irrigation water for cultivation.
A glimmer of hope
After July 16, however, rainfall activity picked up across parts of Telangana. According to S. Stella, head of the IMD’s Hyderabad Centre, the rainfall deficit for July narrowed from 31% to 25% by July 20, a development she shared during a meeting on El Niño on July 21.
The showers brought much-needed relief to many farmers. The government has also stepped up its response beyond issuing the contingency plan. State Cabinet Ministers have been holding district-level review meetings with Special Officers appointed to monitor rainfall, reservoir and groundwater levels, crop conditions and other indicators. The exercise is aimed at gathering feedback from farmers while spreading awareness about alternative cropping patterns suited to a weak monsoon.
A 27-member State-level expert committee, headed by Planning Board vice-chairman G. Chinna Reddy, has also been constituted to assess the likely impact of El Niño and recommend measures to reduce its impact.
At its first meeting in Hyderabad on July 22, the panel discussed climate-resilient agriculture through scientific crop planning, crop diversification, promotion of drought-tolerant and less water-intensive crops, groundwater recharge and other long-term measures.
“After considering the suggestions made during the meeting, we are going to submit our recommendations to the government soon. We are going to recommend supply of seeds of pulses and cereals on the maximum subsidy, ensuring farm loans to eligible farmers and suggest a moratorium on the loans taken by farmers,” Mr. Chinna Reddy says, adding that the panel may also recommend waiver of interest on farm loans.
For now, recommendations remain on paper while the fate of monsoon rests largely on the skies. For the farmers, this Vanakalam is no longer about securing a good harvest; it is about recovering enough to survive until the next season.
