India faces its ‘greatest strategic challenge’ in Bangladesh since 1971: Parliamentary committee on external affairs

The developments in Bangladesh pose the “greatest strategic challenge” to India since the Liberation War of 1971, a Parliamentary panel has said in its report. The report of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs, chaired by Lok Sabha MP Shashi Tharoor, has covered the turbulent India-Bangladesh relation of the past two years and said that Bangladesh is witnessing a “shift” and that New Delhi could end up losing the “strategic space” in Dhaka without necessary recalibration.

“India faces its greatest strategic challenge in Bangladesh since the Liberation War of 1971. The challenge in 1971 was existential, a humanitarian crisis, and the birth of a new nation. Today, the threat is subtler but probably graver, more serious; a generational discontinuity, a shift of political order, and a potential strategic realignment away from India,” the report said, quoting an expert who deposed before the committee on June 27, 2025.

“The collapse of the Awami League dominance, the surge of youth-led nationalism, the re-entry of Islamists, and intensifying Chinese and Pakistani influence collectively marked a turning point,” said the report, adding, “If India fails to recalibrate at this moment, it risks losing strategic space in Dhaka not to war, but to irrelevance.”

Giving a detailed account of interactions held between the Committee and officials of the Ministry of External Affairs since the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government on August 5, 2024, the report said that India has taken the right decision in providing shelter to ousted Prime Minister Hasina but pointed out that New Delhi needs to ensure that Ms. Hasina does not carry out political activities aimed at her country from Indian soil.

Giving refuge to Sheikh Hasina has been a major issue between India and Bangladesh since the fall of the Awami League government on August 5, 2025, and the matter has come up repeatedly since Hasina was given a death sentence on November 17, 2025, and the authorities in Bangladesh have been accusing Ms. Hasina and her colleagues of fomenting trouble in various parts of Bangladesh.

Explaining Ms. Hasina’s actions, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told the committee she is issuing her statements using “personal communication devices that she has access to” and that India “does not provide her with a political platform or any political space to undertake political activity from Indian territory”.

Bangladesh’s interim government has banned political activities of the Awami League, and the party is unlikely to participate in the February 2026 election that the Election Commission of Bangladesh has announced. The report said that Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri briefed the committee members on August 4, 2025, about the political landscape of Bangladesh, especially the emergence of a new political party–National Citizen Party–launched by the student activists who were instrumental in overthrowing the Hasina government. It also noted that the previously banned Jamaat-e-Islami has staged a return and had its electoral registration restored. “Continuing ban on the Awami League will obviously call into question the inclusiveness of any future elections in Bangladesh,” said the report.

The committee was told by the officials that relevant discussions between the Centre and States have been held about the Ganga Water Treaty, which is due for renewal in December 2026, but that such a discussion has yet to commence with Bangladesh. Responding to this, the committee has recommended that the “Government of India should initiate bilateral discussions with Bangladesh at the earliest to avoid any vacuum post-2026 period.”