Precious metals continued upward journey in September with gold and silver closing at fresh 52-week highs. The interest rate cut announced by the U.S. Federal Reserve along concerns on the U.S. government shutdown bolstered sentiment towards precious metals.
Comex gold zoomed past the psychological $3,800 mark and closed at a fresh all-time high of $3,887.6 by end of September. This represents a gain of 10.6% last month. Comex silver posted an impressive 15% gain to settle at $47.9 by the end of September.
Mirroring the trend in the global markets, MCX Gold price closed almost 12% higher to settle at new all-time high of ₹1,17,300 per 10-gram. MCX silver recorded a whopping 17% gain last month to settle at ₹1,42,124 per kilogram. As observed last month, Comex gold price sustained its upward trajectory and also went way past the then mentioned target zone of $3,680-$3,720. While the long-term trend is still positive, the recent spike has pushed the gold price into an overheated zone. A mean reversion or price cool off is likely to happen in the short-term. A fall below $3,800 would be an early sign that the anticipated cool off in Comex gold is underway. Below $3,800, the price could ease to $3,720-$3,730. The short-term trend would remain positive as long as the price sustains above $3,800.
Comex silver price moved in sync with expectations and the price moved well beyond the earlier mentioned target zone of $43.5-$44.5. Similar to gold, Comex silver price too is in the overbought territory and hence a cool off is likely in the near-term. A fall below $45.5 would be an early sign of the onset of the anticipated cool off.
Until this level is breached, expect silver price to coast higher.
Corrective phase
The uptrend in the international price had a positive rub-off on MCX gold. The MCX gold price went well beyond the target zone of ₹1,10,000-₹1,12,000 mentioned last month. There is a possibility domestic gold price too could get into consolidation or a mild downward drift. A fall below ₹1,15,400 would be an early signal downward corrective phase is underway.
In sync with expectations, MCX silver staged a sharp recovery last month and also managed to move past the target zone of ₹1,30,700 -₹1,31,500. The recent spike has pushed MCX silver price to an overbought zone, making it vulnerable to a cool off in the near-term. A fall below ₹1,40,000 would suggest cooling phase is underway. Until the price falls below this level, expect silver price to be firm. To summarise, both gold and silver appear overheated and vulnerable to a cool off in the short-term. The long-term trend however remains positive.
(The author is a Chennai based analyst/trader. The views and opinion featured in this column is based on the analysis of short-term price movement in gold and silver futures at COMEX & Multi Commodity Exchange of India. This is not meant to be a trading or investment advice.)
Published – October 06, 2025 06:51 am IST
