UltraTech Cement’s Positives Priced In, Says Dolat Capital; Maintains ‘Reduce’ Rating Post Q3 Results — Check Revised Target Price

UltraTech Cement Ltd. posted a stronger‑than‑expected performance in Q3 FY26, with realizations broadly in line with estimates while operating metrics exceeded expectations, according to Dolat Capital.

The brokerage expects healthy growth momentum over FY25–28E, projecting a revenue/Ebitda/adjusted profit after tax CAGR of 12.3%/25.1%/31.9%, driven by improving volumes and steady price trends. Volume growth is estimated at 14.4% in FY26E, followed by 8.5% in FY27E and 9.3% in FY28E, while realizations are likely to rise at a modest 2.4%/1.0%/1.0% over the same period.

Dolat Capital has retained its Ebitda estimates for FY26E–FY28E. Ebitda per tonne is seen improving from Rs 924 in FY25 and Rs 1,007 in Q3 FY26 to Rs 1,104/Rs 1,226/Rs 1,334 over FY26E/FY27E/FY28E, reflecting strengthening margin visibility.

However, the brokerage believes the current market price already factors in most positives, limiting upside potential. As a result, Dolat Capital has maintained its ‘Reduce’ rating on the stock, assigning a revised target price of Rs 13,142.

The valuation is based on 16x consolidated FY28E EV/Ebitda, plus 50% of FY28E CWIP, and the Star Cement stake valued at 1x price/book value.

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