New Delhi:

An intense heatwave prevailing over eastern and southern peninsular India is set to subside soon. While the eastern region may get relief by today, the southern states may have to wait for another day, according to a forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

A wet spell accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds is also likely over these regions till May 10, the weather office said.

Temperatures have been soaring above 40 degrees every day with a severe heatwave sweeping across these two regions since last month. On the last day of April, Kolkata recorded its highest temperature in 50 years at 43 degrees.

As the East and the South gets a relief, a fresh heatwave spell is likely to sweep over western India, covering Gujarat, Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh during the next five days.

In the Northeast, rainfall and thunderstorms are likely to continue till tomorrow.

The Khasi-Jaintia Hills region in Meghalaya has been receiving heavy rains since yesterday. Several houses were damaged and over 400 people were affected by the rains. It will continue for another 48 hours, the IMD said.

New Delhi:

The second phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is scheduled for today when a total of 88 parliamentary constituencies across 13 states and Union Territories will go to polls. Dr Naresh Kumar, a senior scientist from the India Meteorological Department, spoke to NDTV about the heatwave forecast in the places where voting will take place.

Key battlegrounds in Phase 2 include 20 seats in Kerala, 14 in Karnataka, 13 in Rajasthan, eight each in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, six in Madhya Pradesh, and five each in Bihar and Assam. Three seats each in Chhattisgarh and West Bengal and one each in Tripura and Jammu and Kashmir will also go to polls, on Friday as will the remaining part of the Outer Manipur constituency.

Here is a summary of Dr Naresh Kumar’s forecasts:

West Bengal

Several parts are likely to see a heat wave or a severe heatwave. A Red Alert has been issued for the next three days.

Bihar

Heatwave conditions are anticipated with both the maximum and minimum temperatures expected to be above average. An Orange Alert has been issued for the next five days.

Uttar Pradesh

Heatwave conditions have been forecast in both Western and Eastern Uttar Pradesh tomorrow.

Karnataka

Interior Karnataka will witness heatwave-like conditions for the next four to five days and an Orange alert has been issued. Coastal Karnataka is also expected to experience above-average temperatures, with a warning for hot and humid weather.

Kerala

Hot and humid conditions will persist in the south Indian state, said Mr Kumar.

Rajasthan

Normal temperatures are expected in Rajasthan. An active western disturbance. currently over Iran, It will impact weather conditions in Northwest India after two days.

The seven-phase Lok Sabha elections got underway on April 19 and the first phase covered 102 seats across 21 states and Union Territories.

Telangana’s cumulative rainfall for October has been a mere 6.5 mm against the normal rainfall of 89.2 mm with a deviation of -93%, which is the lowest monthly rainfall recorded in 58 years. The earlier lowest rainfall of 0.9 mm was recorded way back in October 1965 and 7.2 mm in October 1967, respectively.

Meteorologists at the Telangana State Development Planning Society (TSDPS) have informed that while the global ‘El Nino’ (Pacific Ocean warming that affects the Indian monsoon) is the most likely phenomenon because no other activity has been witnessed, the suppressed Easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal could have led to the weak rainfall during the month.

“There were a couple of low-pressure cyclones that formed in the Bay of Bengal but one prominent one went off towards Bangladesh, hence there was no rainfall. There won’t be much rainfall in November and December also,” said TSDPS weather forecast consultant Y.V. Rama Rao on Wednesday.

During the current period from October to December, the northeast monsoon season is supposed to be receiving about 11.3 cm rain or about 12% of the total annual rainfall of 91.9 cm, a majority of which is to be received during the Southwest monsoon from June to September.

The rainfall deficit takes overall rainfall received since June to October to 86.8 cm as against the normal of 82.8 cm with a deviation of 5%. Within the GHMC limits, the overall rainfall has been 77.6 cm as against the normal of 72.4 cm or a deviation of 7 %.

The climatology for November is about 2 cm rainfall, with the highest rainfall ever recorded being 24.2 cm at Burgampadu (Bhadradri-Kothagudem) on November 3, 2012. The average minimum temperature is 19.2 degrees C and the lowest minimum temperature is 7 degree C recorded at Sirpur in Kumurum-Bheem district on November 27, 2017.

The weather consultant also stated that the current cloudy sky with warm day temperatures is also because of the Easterly winds strengthening, but by the middle of this month the temperatures could see a downward trend by a couple of degrees. “We can notice the signs of winter in a couple of weeks, where we can expect the night temperature to fall, though the season will officially set in December,” he added.

Watch | How climate change is affecting monsoon forecast and disaster management

From delayed onsets marked by intense dry spells, to devastating flash floods and destructive landslides, the monsoon in recent years has been a period of uncertainty and destruction for India.

Although there are various factors behind it, there is a general consensus among scientists that climate change plays a major role.

The Southwest monsoon that brings rain to the subcontinent during June and July, happens due to the heating up of the Asian landmass in the northern hemisphere during the scorching summer and the relative cooling of the southern Indian ocean.

How is climate change affecting monsoon? What are the challenges in predicting monsoons? Experts explain.

Script and videos: Aswin VN

Production: Richard Kujur