New Delhi:

The Kerala government requested the state’s scientific community on Thursday to refrain from sharing their opinions and study reports on the Wayanad landslides with the media.

Tiku Biswal, the state relief commissioner and principal secretary for disaster management, in an order directed all science and technology institutions in Kerala not to undertake field visits to the Meppadi panchayat in Wayanad, which has been designated a disaster-affected area.

In one of the worst disasters in the state’s history, heavy rain-induced landslides claimed more than 290 lives in Wayanad.

Scientists from the state and beyond attributed the disaster to a deadly mix of forest cover loss, mining in the fragile terrain and climate change.

“You are requested to direct all science and technology institutions in the state of Kerala not to undertake any field visits to Meppadi panchayat, Wayanad, which is notified as a disaster-affected area,” according to Biswal’s order to KP Sudheer, principal secretary in the state’s science and technology department.

“The scientific community shall be directed to restrain themselves from sharing their opinions and study reports to (the) media. If any study is to be undertaken in the disaster-affected area, prior permission shall be obtained from the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority,” it said.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Parliament on Wednesday took up a discussion on Wayanad landslide under a ‘calling attention’ motion. In his response, Union Home Minister Amit Shah made several claims on early warning systems in India and how they were utilised to alert the Kerala government ahead of the tragedy. The Hindu takes a closer look at these claims.

Read Wayanad landslides LIVE updates here 

What the minister said:

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) press release dated July 18 issued on outlook for a flash flood risk in northern parts of Kerala (among other places) until 11.30 a.m. of July 19.

The extended range forecast, also issued on the same day for July 18-31, carried no mention of Kerala for the period, however.

The IMD press release published on July 23 warned of “very heavy rainfall at isolated places” in Kerala and Mahe on July 25 (suggesting action), and heavy rainfall over isolated/some places in Kerala and Mahe from July 23-27.

The visual sub-division-wise weather warnings under this forecast carried an orange alert for the State of Kerala for July 25, and a yellow “watch” alert for July July 23, 24, 26, and 27. A yellow alert doesn’t specifically call for action.

The press release published on July 25 said that “scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm and lightning [was] very likely over Kerala & Mahe (and other places) over the next five days”, and heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Kerala and Mahe from July 25-29. Visual warnings, as depicted on maps, also showed a yellow alert for Kerala, which doesn’t call for action.

The extended range forecast for July 25-August 7 predicted “scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm and lightning very likely over Kerala and Mahe [and other places], as well as heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places during the week”.

The July 29 press release by IMD issued an orange alert for very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Kerala and Mahe on July 29. The landslides occurred in the early hours of July 30.

A red alert for July 30 was issued in the press release published at 1.10 p.m., after the landslides had occurred. This press release also carried an orange alert for Kerala and Mahe for July 31 and August 1.

One Agromet forecast issued on July 23 for Wayanad district predicted 15 mm of rainfall in the district on July 30, the day when the landslides occurred after extremely heavy rainfall. Agromet, or the Agricultural Meteorlogy Division of IMD Pune, issues forecasts to minimise the impact of adverse weather on crops. Fifteen mm of rainfall is not cause for worry according to the IMD’s categorisation.

In its extended range forecast issued on July 25, IMD’s Meteorological Centre in Thiruvananthapuram predicted “cumulative above normal rainfall” for Kerala during July 2 to August 1, but did not raise any alarms or issue any warnings. August 2-8 was predicted to bring normal rainfall to the State.

The district rainfall forecast issued by the Thiruvananthapuram Met centre on July 26 predicted “light to moderate” rainfall for Wayanad district on July 30.

Mr. Shah also said in the Rajya Sabha that an early warning for rainfall more than 20 cm and possible landslide was issued to Kerala on July 26. The IMD press release published on the day carried no such warnings. Like the previous editions, it carried a yellow watch alert under visual sub-division-wise weather warnings.

After Mr. Shah’s remarks, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan also said that the forecasts issued by IMD, the Geological Survey of India (responsible for issuing alerts related to landslides), and the Central Water Commission (responsible for issuing alerts on river-related floods) were off the mark.

“None of the agencies had issued a red alert for Wayanad ahead of the July 30 landslides,” he said.

Mr. Vijayan also shared an image titled ‘Experimental Rainfall Induced Landslide Forecast Bulletin’ for Wayanad district, issued on July 29 for two days. The bulletin predicted a “low possibility” of occurrences of landslides. This information is not available in the public domain.

Following Mr. Shah’s remarks in Parliament, CPI(M) MPs in Rajya Sabha from Kerala, John Brittas, A.A. Rahim and V. Sivadasan, approached Chairman Jagdeep Dhankhar requesting him to direct Mr. Shah to clarify his statement. Mr. Sivadasan also moved a privilege notice with the Rajya Sabha Secretary-General alleging that Mr. Shah had misled the Upper House and that action must be initiated against him for breach of privilege.

What the minister said:

This is incorrect. India set up the National Monsoon Mission in 2012 (now referred to as Monsoon Mission, MM) to improve the country’s monsoon prediction capabilities. According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the first phase of MM, called MM-I, was completed successfully in 2017.

MM-II began in September 2017 to focus on “predicting weather/climate extremes and development of climatic applications based on monsoon forecasts, especially in the field of agriculture, hydrology and energy sector, while continuing model development activities”.

MM-II is a part of Atmosphere and Climate Research – Modelling Observing Systems and Services (ACROSS). The Budget allocation for ACROSS, however, reduced drastically in 2024. In 2023, a total of ₹680 crore was allocated for it, and the revised estimate put this figure at ₹550 crore. In 2024, only ₹500 crore have been allocated for ACROSS.

What the minister said:

This claim is contentious. For cyclones particularly, the 2023 ‘Global status of multi-hazard early warning systems’ report by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk and Reduction (UNDRR) says, “Even with state-of-the-art forecasts, the risk associated with tropical cyclones for a particular location can only be updated 3–5 days before landfall.” Tropical cyclones have caused extensive damage in India over the years.

Talking about the 2023 Cyclone Mocha, the UNDRR report said, “The Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre in New Delhi provided critical information and guidance products on the formation, projected path and intensity of the tropical cyclone 3–5 days ahead of landfall.”

For rain, IMD’s standard operating procedures on weather forecasting and warning services state that a red-colour warning for extremely heavy rainfall cannot be issued more than 48 hours in advance, as opposed to the “seven days in advance” claim by Mr. Shah. Extremely heavy rainfall, which means more than 20cm of rain in 24 hours, is denoted by a red colour warning by the IMD, and it means “take action”. Mr. Shah claimed that an early warning for rainfall more than 20 cm and possible landslide was issued to Kerala on July 26, which counters IMD’s SOP.

New Delhi:

In a rebuttal to Home Minister Amit Shah’s statements in Parliament, Kerala Health Minister Veena George told NDTV that no red alert for landslides was issued by the Centre. This clarification comes in the wake of Mr Shah’s remarks suggesting that the Kerala government had been forewarned about potential landslides, which resulted in over 150 deaths and 200 injuries in Wayanad district.

Speaking to NDTV, Ms George described Mr Shah’s statement as “unfortunate and misleading”. She insisted that thorough checks of all messages from the central government came up with no red alert. “We have verified all communications from the Centre, and there was no red alert issued regarding landslides. The district administration acted based on an orange alert, which is a level lower in severity,” Ms George stated.

The minister added that the Wayanad district administration had taken preventive measures based on the orange alert, including the evacuation of many residents to safer locations.

Amit Shah In Parliament 

Mr Shah claimed yesterday that the Centre had provided early warnings to the Kerala government as early as July 23. He claimed that the Centre had dispatched nine National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) teams to Kerala in anticipation of heavy rainfall and potential landslides. “The Kerala government was warned a week in advance, but they failed to evacuate people in time, leading to the tragic loss of lives,” Mr Shah said.

The Home Minister further said that India is among the few countries capable of predicting natural disasters seven days in advance. He claimed that had the Kerala government acted on the early warnings and the deployment of NDRF teams, the casualties could have been significantly reduced. “The Modi government stands firmly with the people of Kerala in this time of crisis,” Mr Shah assured.

Centre’s Response 

Union Minister George Kurian, who visited Wayanad on the night of the disaster, reiterated the Centre’s commitment to supporting Kerala. He said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was closely monitoring the situation and had directed immediate assistance and resources to the affected areas. “Both control rooms of the Ministry of Home Affairs are operational 24/7, ensuring all possible support is extended to the state,” Mr Kurian said.

The Indian Army and Air Force are actively engaged in rescue operations. Two columns of army personnel and two Indian Air Force helicopters have been deployed, alongside NDRF, State Disaster Response Force (SDRF), and specialised dog squads to aid in the search and rescue efforts.

Political Reactions

Parliament proceedings saw heated exchanges, with opposition members stressing the need for robust early warning systems. Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, representing Wayanad, urged the government to extend all possible aid to the affected people and address the ecological concerns contributing to such disasters. Mr Gandhi and his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra are expected to visit the relief camps set up in the district today. 

BJP member Tejasvi Surya criticised Gandhi, claiming that he never raised the issue of landslides in his constituency. He also alleged that illegal encroachments in Wayanad, ignored due to pressure from religious organisations, exacerbated the disaster. These remarks led to protests from Congress members, causing a brief adjournment of the proceedings.

Experts from various fields have called for a review of disaster management protocols. John Brittas of CPI(M) termed the Wayanad landslides as the worst in Kerala’s history and urged the Centre to declare it a national disaster. 
 

Thiruvananthapuram:

The India Meteorological Department on Tuesday issued a red alert for the mountain district of Wayanad — which has been rocked by landslides triggered by incessant rains — and all the northern districts of Kerala, indicating that extremely heavy rainfall is expected in these regions.

While the IMD has issued a red alert for eight districts, including Wayanad, an orange alert was issued for Tuesday for Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam and Ernakulam districts.

A red alert indicates heavy-to-extremely heavy rain of over 20 cm in 24 hours. An orange alert means very heavy rain of 11 cm to 20 cm, and a yellow alert means heavy rainfall between 6 cm and 11 cm.

The red alert was issued for Tuesday in Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod districts in northern Kerala, as well as Idukki and Thrissur in central Kerala.

The Met office has issued an orange alert for Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod districts for Wednesday as well.

Meanwhile, Pathanamthitta, Ernakulam, Idukki, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod district authorities have declared a holiday for all educational institutions including the professional colleges in view of the heavy rain prediction.

Train services to and from northern Kerala has been disrupted due to flooding and trees being uprooted at many places along the tracks.

Due to waterlogging and heavy rains, at least 10 trains were fully or partially rescheduled in Kerala.

The Railways said many trains, including the ‘16305’ Ernakulam – Kannur Intercity Express and the ‘16791’ Tirunelveli – Palakkad Palaruvi Express were short terminated at Thrissur and Aluva respectively.

The ‘16302’ Thiruvananthapuram – Shoranur Venad Express will be terminated at Chalakkudy, it added.

Meanwhile, the Guruvayur – Thrissur Daily Express and Shoranur – Thrissur Daily Express, were cancelled.

The Kannur-Thiruvananthapuram Central Janshatabdi Express was terminated at Shoranur Jn. A number of others trains were also either short terminated or rescheduled partially or fully.

The official death count in the Wayanad landslides has gone up to 123, and includes the count of children and women.

Around 128 are admitted to various hospitals and several people are stranded in many places of Wayanad which is continuing to receive heavy rainfall.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)