A goldsmith engrossed in jewellery making at a unit.
| Photo Credit: S. Siva Saravanan

A tapper collecting latex from a rubber tree at a plantation in Kanjirappally, Kottayam.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

If talks go well, the death machines will fall silent in West Asia, or at least Gaza, on Sunday. The US and Qatar have reportedly brokered a deal between Israel and Hamas to end the war.

It’s been a long wait for the misery to end. The killings began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas fighters from Gaza attacked Israel on a Jewish holiday. They went about indiscriminately shooting and kidnapping unsuspecting civilians and some soldiers. The worst attack was on a music festival where hundreds of young Israelis were partying. All of it streamed live by the attackers’ body-mounted cameras. By the time Israeli forces took out the last gunmen, the body count had topped 1,200. Over 250 hostages were carried across to Gaza to be stashed away in a subterranean maze where they remained undiscovered even after the whole house was burnt down.

Perhaps the most dramatic and horrific cross-border assault on any country since the Mumbai terror attacks of 2008, it triggered such a display of overwhelming force that it left the world aghast. The shockwaves have left the regional map perceptibly different. It has riven apart communities and split institutions. The scars run so deep that they will not heal in a very long time. It has also laid bare the remarkable pragmatism bordering on chutzpah of the Arab nations.

Reduced To Rubble 

According to multiple reports, nearly 46,000 Gazans, a substantial number of them women and children, have perished in the 15-month war. Most of Gaza has been flattened and rendered uninhabitable. Israel is estimated to have demolished over 1,61,600 homes and damaged 1,94,000 other civil structures. More than 1.9 million of the 2.2 million Gazans have become refugees, most of them corralled into a tiny corner in the north of the Strip. More than 1,000 medical facilities have been destroyed; Rafah does not have a single hospital. The economic loss is estimated at $37 billion. 

Hamas was decapitated when its political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, where he had gone to attend the inauguration ceremony for Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Its director of war, Yahya Sinwar, was killed in Gaza last year, just after the first anniversary of the Hamas attack. A video of a dying Sinwar defiantly throwing a piece of wood at an Israeli military drone indicated that Hamas would not back down despite the carnage. By the end of 2024, Israel had spent over $67 billion on war. It had cost the United States nearly $23 billion until September 2024. Yet, about a hundred Israelis remain hostages somewhere in the ruins, or, more likely, under the ground. 

The Deal

So, what is the new acceptable middle ground in the new deal that the failed talks since the first successful one in November of 2023 could not find? After all, the original objective of the war—freeing hostages—was not achieved. Not only that, Israel will release over 1,000 Palestinians, including those arrested after October 7 and presumably Hamas fighters, in a prisoner exchange. That means while thousands of innocent Gazans, including women and children, paid for the Hamas attack with their lives, its fighters may yet return, alive, prison-hardened, and ready to fight another day. 

On December 20, 2024, American journalist Seymour Hersh—famous for blowing the lid off a cover-up of a massacre of the villagers of My Lai in Vietnam by US troops in the 1960s—wrote that an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal was in the works. The contours of the just-announced deal are nearly identical to that in his report.  One crucial piece of information, which was not in the deal made public but available in Hersh’s Israeli source-based account, was the role of Saudi Arabia and the quid pro quos. Hersh wrote that as per the deal—reportedly made possible after incoming US President Donald Trump shook his fist at the belligerent Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—the US would extend its nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia if Iran gets hold of a nuke. In return, Saudi will fund the reconstruction of Gaza, look away when Israeli warplanes raid Syria, and allow its once-arch rival access to an airfield inside its territory. 

When Iran hit Israel with a barrage of missiles after it assassinated Hezbollah leader Nasrallah and killed scores of others in a “pager attack”, Tel Aviv had to precisely plan its retaliation because of the distance its fighter planes would have had to cover to reach targets deep inside enemy territory. Those targets would be minutes away if the planes were to launch from Saudi Arabia, however. So, the Israeli hostages, who have now spent over 460 days in captivity, paid the price for Tel Aviv to have a closer shot at Iran. 

The Aftermath

Almost all conflicts in West Asia in the past over 50 years somehow link back to the Palestine issue and a still-pending two-state solution. Palestine-trained activists and revolutionaries helped overthrow the Shah in Iran in 1979. That regime has since helped create multiple armed groups in the region, including Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis.  

While the Saudi aspect—if it exists—of the ceasefire deal may eventually be revealed, it is clear that the US and major powers in the Gulf have decided to militarily ring-fence Iran. While the regime change in Syria with tacit support from Turkey has broken the Iran-Russia supply-and-support link, Israel has crushed Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel, the US and the UK have jointly carried out air raids on the Yemen-based Houthis, another Iran-backed group, whose attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea have disrupted global trade. What would be next? A regime change in Iran? Perhaps that will be property tycoon-turned-diplomat Steve Witkoff’s next assignment. 

(Dinesh Narayanan is a Delhi-based journalist and author of ‘The RSS And The Making Of The Deep Nation’.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

If talks go well, the death machines will fall silent in West Asia, or at least Gaza, on Sunday. The US and Qatar have reportedly brokered a deal between Israel and Hamas to end the war.

It’s been a long wait for the misery to end. The killings began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas militants from Gaza attacked Israel on a Jewish holiday. They went about indiscriminately shooting and kidnapping unsuspecting civilians and some soldiers. The worst attack was on a music festival where hundreds of young Israelis were partying. All of it streamed live by the attackers’ body-mounted cameras. By the time Israeli forces took out the last gunmen, the body count had topped 1,200. Over 250 hostages were carried across to Gaza to be stashed away in a subterranean maze where they remained undiscovered even after the whole house was burnt down.

Perhaps the most dramatic and horrific cross-border assault on any country since the Mumbai terror attacks of 2008, it triggered such a display of overwhelming force that it left the world aghast. The shockwaves have left the regional map perceptibly different. It has riven apart communities and split institutions. The scars run so deep that they will not heal in a very long time. It has also laid bare the remarkable pragmatism bordering on chutzpah of the Arab nations.

Reduced To Rubble 

According to multiple reports, nearly 46,000 Gazans, a substantial number of them women and children, have perished in the 15-month war. Most of Gaza has been flattened and rendered uninhabitable. Israel is estimated to have demolished over 1,61,600 homes and damaged 1,94,000 other civil structures. More than 1.9 million of the 2.2 million Gazans have become refugees, most of them corralled into a tiny corner in the north of the Strip. More than 1,000 medical facilities have been destroyed; Rafah does not have a single hospital. The economic loss is estimated at $37 billion. 

Hamas was decapitated when its political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, where he had gone to attend the inauguration ceremony for Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Its director of war, Yahya Sinwar, was killed in Gaza last year, just after the first anniversary of the Hamas attack. A video of a dying Sinwar defiantly throwing a piece of wood at an Israeli military drone indicated that Hamas would not back down despite the carnage. By the end of 2024, Israel had spent over $67 billion on war. It had cost the United States nearly $23 billion until September 2024. Yet, about a hundred Israelis remain hostages somewhere in the ruins, or, more likely, under the ground. 

The Deal

So, what is the new acceptable middle ground in the new deal that the failed talks since the first successful one in November of 2023 could not find? After all, the original objective of the war—freeing hostages—was not achieved. Not only that, Israel will release over 1,000 Palestinians, including those arrested after October 7 and presumably Hamas fighters, in a prisoner exchange. That means while thousands of innocent Gazans, including women and children, paid for the Hamas attack with their lives, its fighters may yet return, alive, prison-hardened, and ready to fight another day. 

On December 20, 2024, American journalist Seymour Hersh—famous for blowing the lid off a cover-up of a massacre of the villagers of My Lai in Vietnam by US troops in the 1960s—wrote that an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal was in the works. The contours of the just-announced deal are nearly identical to that in his report.  One crucial piece of information, which was not in the deal made public but available in Hersh’s Israeli source-based account, was the role of Saudi Arabia and the quid pro quos. Hersh wrote that as per the deal—reportedly made possible after incoming US President Donald Trump shook his fist at the belligerent Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—the US would extend its nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia if Iran gets hold of a nuke. In return, Saudi will fund the reconstruction of Gaza, look away when Israeli warplanes raid Syria, and allow its once-arch rival access to an airfield inside its territory. 

When Iran hit Israel with a barrage of missiles after it assassinated Hezbollah leader Nasrallah and killed scores of others in a “pager attack”, Tel Aviv had to precisely plan its retaliation because of the distance its fighter planes would have had to cover to reach targets deep inside enemy territory. Those targets would be minutes away if the planes were to launch from Saudi Arabia, however. So, the Israeli hostages, who have now spent over 460 days in captivity, paid the price for Tel Aviv to have a closer shot at Iran. 

The Aftermath

Almost all conflicts in West Asia in the past over 50 years somehow link back to the Palestine issue and a still-pending two-state solution. Palestine-trained activists and revolutionaries helped overthrow the Shah in Iran in 1979. That regime has since helped create multiple armed groups in the region, including Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis.  

While the Saudi aspect—if it exists—of the ceasefire deal may eventually be revealed, it is clear that the US and major powers in the Gulf have decided to militarily ring-fence Iran. While the regime change in Syria with tacit support from Turkey has broken the Iran-Russia supply-and-support link, Israel has crushed Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel, the US and the UK have jointly carried out air raids on the Yemen-based Houthis, another Iran-backed group, whose attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea have disrupted global trade. What would be next? A regime change in Iran? Perhaps that will be property tycoon-turned-diplomat Steve Witkoff’s next assignment. 

(Dinesh Narayanan is a Delhi-based journalist and author of ‘The RSS And The Making Of The Deep Nation’.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Few could have foreseen Bashar al-Assad’s dramatic ouster as 2024 drew to a close. For years, Syria’s battle lines had been frozen under a fragile ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey in 2020. Yet, Assad’s downfall—after his family’s iron grip over Syria for over five decades—has shaken the region to its core. Lina Khatib of London-based think tank, Chatham House, writing in Foreign Policy, likened it to the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, calling it “an earthquake in the regional order”.

The reasons for Assad’s collapse are as much about Syria as they are about its ophthalmologist ex-president’s patrons—Russia, bogged down in Ukraine, had neither the resources nor the resolve to back Assad, and Iran’s proxies across the region were severely weakened by Israeli air strikes. Sensing the moment, rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group with roots in Al-Qaeda, mounted a ferocious offensive. Assad’s army, battered by years of corruption, desertions and low morale, folded in the face of the HTS’s blitz. Predictably, Western powers have swooped in to shape Syria’s political future and are now vying to influence the makeup of the next government.

From the relative calm of India or from the peaceful Western European capitals, it’s tempting to ask: why is the Arab world perpetually at war with itself? Why does it spawn so many extremist groups? Why has it been trapped in cycles of violence and instability for decades? To answer these questions, we must look beyond the modern era, all the way back to the 11th century. But for now, let’s stay within the last century to understand how history has shaped the region’s current turmoil.

The Lawrence Syndrome

Years ago, I watched Lawrence of Arabia, a sweeping tale of West Asia’s chaos around the years 1916-17. Hollywood, as we know, isn’t big on sequels. But looking at the current mess in the region, I would certainly say, no, shout, that it’s high time for a sequel to Lawrence of Arabia.

The iconic 1962 film serves as a powerful metaphor for the ongoing struggles in West Asia. The themes of betrayal, tribalism and Western manipulation in the film echo the realities of modern conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya. Set during World War I, the film offers a stark window into the forces that set the stage for the region’s instability. The movie depicts T.E. Lawrence, played by Peter O’Toole, as a British officer cobbling together a front consisting of diverse groups of Arab tribes to fight against the Ottoman Empire, which had governed much of the Arab world for centuries. The British officer on behalf of his government promised the Arabs full independence in return for their support.

However, as history shows, that promise was nothing more than deception. After the war, the secret Sykes-Picot Agreement, signed between Britain and France, carved the region into British and French colonial spheres of influence, betraying the Arabs and ignoring their aspirations for self-determination. This betrayal was not just a diplomatic slight—it planted the seeds of mistrust that continue to shape Arab-Western relations to this day.

The arbitrary borders drawn by colonial powers, with no regard for the region’s ethnic, tribal or religious complexities, created fragile states that were prone to fracture. Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen are glaring examples of this legacy: nations artificially built by outsiders, now disintegrating as factions fight for power in structures never designed to hold.

Fragile Tribal Alliances

Memorable but controversial views about the Arabs uttered in Lawrence of Arabia are believed by many in the West even today: “So long as the Arabs fight tribe against tribe, so long will they be a little people, a silly people—greedy, barbarous, and cruel, as you are.” In the film, Lawrence struggles to unite the disparate Arab tribes against the Ottomans. This reflects the tribalism and factionalism that continue to plague the region. In Libya, for instance, the fall of Muammar Gaddafi exposed deep tribal rivalries, leading to a prolonged civil war. Similarly, in Yemen, the conflict is partly driven by tribal and sectarian divisions, exacerbated by foreign intervention.

It’s All About Oil

“There is nothing in the desert, and no man needs nothing,” said Lawrence in the film. But things dramatically changed in the region with the discovery of vast oil reserves. From “nothing”, the region’s desert became resource-rich. Oil turned deserts into global battlegrounds, amplifying foreign intervention. Another Hollywood movie, Syriana, depicts how mega Western energy companies played kingmakers in the region. Greed led to corruption and manipulation. In our times, the US and its allies have often supported local leaders or factions in ways that serve their strategic interests, only to abandon them later. For instance, the US first supported Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War, but later overthrew him in 2003. In Syria, Western powers have backed various rebel groups, some of which later turned into destabilising forces.

Oil, the region’s most valuable resource, has been both a blessing and a curse. Oil drew intense interest from Western powers, who sought to control these resources to fuel their economies. The oil-rich Gulf states, while benefiting economically, became heavily reliant on Western security guarantees, leaving them vulnerable to foreign influence. The 1953 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)-led coup in Iran, which overthrew Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh after he nationalised the oil industry, is a case in point. Similarly, the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, justified on dubious grounds, dismantled state institutions and unleashed a wave of sectarian violence that continues to plague the country.

Israel and Modern Wars

The Balfour Declaration of 1917, in which Britain supported the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine, added to the tensions. This commitment conflicted with promises made to Arab leaders by the colonial powers, which had assured support for an independent Arab state in exchange for their rebellion against the Ottomans. The betrayal left deep scars, fuelling resentment that persists to this day. The establishment of Israel following the Holocaust and the UN partition plan displaced hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, leading to the first Arab-Israeli war in 1948. Subsequent wars (1956, 1967, 1973), the Palestinian refugee crisis and the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian tensions continue to define the region’s volatility. For many Arab nations, Israel became a symbol of Western-backed injustice and territorial loss.

The Death Of Pan-Arabism

Despite turmoil and crises, or perhaps because of them, Pan-Arabism emerged as a movement to unite the warring Arab world under a shared identity, overcoming tribal and sectarian divisions. Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser was the movement’s most towering figure. Unfortunately for ordinary Arab people, internal rivalries, ideological differences and external meddling stymied the movement.

The United States and its allies, wary of the socialist underpinnings of Pan-Arabism, actively worked to undermine it. For instance, the CIA was reportedly involved in orchestrating coups and supporting conservative monarchies to counter Nasser’s influence. By the 1970s, Pan-Arabism had largely faded, replaced by fragmented nationalisms and chaos.

Hope, Then Disillusionment

The 2011 Arab Spring uprisings briefly raised hopes for democratic change. However, the movements’ outcomes varied widely, with some states descending into chaos. In Syria, peaceful protests against President Bashar al-Assad devolved into a brutal civil war, drawing in regional and international players. The US, Russia, Iran, Turkey and others have all backed different factions, turning Syria into a proxy battlefield. Libya, too, saw its long-time leader Gaddafi overthrown with NATO’s help, only to descend into a protracted conflict among rival factions. Meanwhile, countries like Egypt saw a return to authoritarianism, dashing hopes for meaningful reform.

Echoes Of The Crusades

The Crusades, launched between the 11th and 13th centuries, were actually military campaigns by European Christian powers to reclaim Jerusalem and the Holy Land from Muslim control. Salah ad-Din Yusuf ibn Ayyub, commonly known in the West as Saladin, defeated the Christian army of crusaders at the Battle of Hattin in 1187, which led to the recapture of Jerusalem. Ironically, Saladin hailed from a Kurdish family (non-Arabs in West Asia) but became a hero of the Arabs after the victory. The first sultan of both Egypt and Syria is today hero-worshipped in Muslim societies, particularly in the Arab world, for inflicting a crushing defeat on the European forces. He remains a celebrated figure of resistance, unity, and Islamic valour. His victory symbolises an ability to push back against Western incursions—a legacy still invoked today in discussions of imperialism, foreign intervention and the need for regional unity. Today, Islamist movements and Arab nationalists have, at times, likened Western intervention in the Middle East—such as the US-led invasion of Iraq or European colonial rule—to a “new crusade”, a continuation of Western aggression under different banners.

West Asia is in chaos. Visiting Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq is considered unsafe. It remains a patchwork of conflict zones, authoritarian regimes and fragile states. Over six million Syrians are refugees living in neighbouring countries, and over seven million are internally displaced. Yemen’s civil war, orchestrated by Saudi-Iran rivalry, has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. On top of the crises in Iraq and Syria, their people have to grapple with the threat of ISIS. Lebanon’s economy is in free fall, exacerbating social and political tensions. Even Israel’s economy has ground to a halt due to relentless wars in the last 14 months.

The US and its Western allies remain deeply involved in the region, whether through military presence, arms sales, supporting one extremist organisation or another, or through diplomatic manoeuvres. Unfortunately apart from Turkey, no other emerging power or BRICS nations are showing any interest in shaping the region’s future, even though they know they might be eventually affected by the ongoing crisis.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author

Baba Vanga’s 2025 Predictions: Vangelia Pandeva Gushterova, also known as Baba Vanga, was a blind Bulgarian mystic who died in 1996 at the age of 85. Even after her death, people all across the world are still fascinated by her prophecies. Called the ‘Nostradamus of the Balkans,’ Baba Vanga claimed that she lost her sight at the age of twelve and then developed the gift of prophecy. One of her most prominent forecasts was the September 11, 2001, attack on the Twin Towers in New York.

Baba Vanga made several chilling predictions for 2025, many of which suggest death and destruction. Her 2025 prophecies, which continue to intrigue people, include warnings of catastrophic global events. These forecasts are concerning because they appear to predict global unrest that might affect the entire planet. Baba Vanga’s predictions are a subject of constant interest and concern due to her capacity to predict such occurrences. 

Here are a few of the Nostradamus of the Balkans’ extremely outrageous but believable prophecies.

The destruction of Europe

According to the Daily Star, the mystic predicted war and the absolute destruction of the West-oh joy. She said, “As soon as Syria falls, expect a great war between the West and the East. In the spring, a war in the East will begin, and there will be a Third World War. A war in the East that will destroy the West.” And in another prediction, she claimed, “Syria will fall at the feet of the winner, but the winner will not be the one.” It’s hard to argue about this one, given it’s clearly happening in front of our own eyes.

Alien contact

As per the news portal, Vanga warned: “Humanity will make contact with extraterrestrial life, possibly leading to a global crisis or apocalypse.”

With the promise of Donald Trump releasing all files the United States Government holds on aliens when he gets into power, it’s possible that this prediction is far more accurate than we’d like to believe.

Telepathy is not far off

Baba Vanga predicted that humanity would develop telepathy by 2025, allowing for direct mind-to-mind communication. This advancement, she believed, would revolutionise human interaction.Elon Musk’s brain chip has already been making waves with a form of telepathy where a person controls technology, but could he finally crack a human-to-human version?

A year of scientific breakthroughs

Baba Vanga predicted 2025 would bring major scientific and medical breakthroughs, including advancements in telepathy and nanotechnology. However, she also cautioned about the potential dangers of misusing these technologies for destructive purposes, though her exact quotes are now unavailable.

The Foreign Ministry said it was the 18th time that President Joe Biden’s administration had announced arms sales to the island. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The United States has approved the proposed sale of spare parts for fighter jets and radar systems as well as communications equipment to Taiwan, in deals valued at $385 million, a U.S. agency said Friday (November 29, 2024).

While Washington does not have official diplomatic relations with Taipei, it remains the island’s most important backer and biggest arms supplier.

The proposed sale of the F-16 and radar system parts consists of equipment in existing US military stocks and was worth an estimated $320 million, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a statement, with deliveries estimated to start in 2025.

“This proposed sale serves U.S. national, economic and security interests by supporting the recipient’s continuing efforts to modernize its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability,” the DSCA said.

“The proposed sale will improve the recipient’s ability to meet current and future threats by maintaining the operational readiness of the recipient’s fleet of F-16 aircraft.”

A separate sale involving follow-on support and equipment for a tactical communications system was worth $65 million, the DSCA said.

The deals were approved by the State Department, with the DSCA providing the required notification to Congress on Friday (November 29, 2024).

China insists self-ruled Taiwan is part of its territory and has long opposed US arms sales to the island.

The sales were announced as Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te was due to leave on Saturday for a trip to three Pacific island allies, with stopovers in Hawaii and the US territory of Guam.

Taiwan’s defense ministry on Saturday (November 30, 2024) “expressed gratitude” for the latest arms sales.

The items “will help maintain the combat readiness of the Air Force’s F-16 aircraft equipment and bolster our air defense,” the ministry said in a statement.

“Taiwan and the United States will continue to consolidate our security partnership.”

The Foreign Ministry said it was the 18th time that President Joe Biden’s administration had announced arms sales to the island.

Taiwan was determined to strengthen its defences in the face of China’s military pressure and “grey zone harassment,” it said in a statement, referring to tactics that fall short of an act of war.

China has ramped up military pressure on Taiwan in recent years with near-daily deployments of fighter jets and warships around the island.

On Saturday (November 30, 2024), Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said 18 Chinese military aircraft and seven naval vessels as well as two balloons were detected in the 24 hours to 6:00 am (2200 GMT Friday).

Does the highly volatile situation in West Asia put a premium on multipolarity? This question needs to be addressed beyond the foreign policy of America. For John Mearsheimer, a leading political scientist, the battle between Democrats and the Republicans is akin to a choice between “Tweedledum and Tweedledee”. It is the deep state that operates the American foreign policy, with the primary intent of maximising power and being a global hegemon. It is what has been articulated by Samuel Huntington in his Clash of Civilizations, where he warned that the inability of the West to adapt to the increasing power and influence of other civilisations will bring about the decline of its own power and influence, and will be the greatest threat to world peace.

The global order had largely been unipolar since the Cold War, until Russia put its foot down in Damascus during the Syrian Civil War following the Arab Spring. Since then, this world order has been constantly challenged. With the rise of the Global South, today’s world order has upended the hegemonic power structure and is ostensibly shuffling towards multipolarity. The Tehran-Beijing-Moscow Axis poses a formidable challenge to American global ambitions. 

India and China have emerged as the two key contenders for leadership in the Global South. However, the nature of their approach varies significantly. While China presents a direct conflict to the Global North, India has a more accommodating approach. 

As understood by analysts, these gradual yet changing realities are also visible in the American deep state. As the Balance of Power theory suggests, Washington has chosen to bank behind and strengthen New Delhi’s position. The renewed excitement for the Quad and I2U2 groupings and its further extension into the building of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) are examples. However, herein lies the key challenge to the Indian foreign policy, which has to juggle its various priorities—in the Global South, in managing its regional geopolitical compulsions, and in its strategic partnership with prominent members of the Global North.

Peace Was Not To Be

The churn in the politics of West Asia predates the ongoing war. Since the Arab Spring, when the United States decided to withdraw and pivot towards East Asia, the regional regimes gradually abandoned their ‘clienthood’ to explore other options. Over the years, the region had started seeing some semblance of settlement with Syria back in the Arab League, a peace process initiated between Damascus and Ankara, and the Abraham Accords formally facilitating the normalisation of ties with Israel. If not for a Chinese-brokered deal between Riyadh and Tehran, the final closing picture could have been a handshake between Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with an American President in the centre. 

However, Hamas’s October 7 attack upset all this. Washington, which had seen its share of misadventures in Ukraine, has also been pulled back into the turmoil in West Asia.
Further, Israel’s disregard for the rules of war and the observation of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and United Nations (UN) Resolutions has forced even Riyadh to publicly denounce Tel Aviv and pause any talks for normalisation until the establishment of a Palestinian State.

India Will Have To Chart Its Own Path

As India continues to expand and enhance its labour-trade-energy engagement with West Asia, it’ll have to be careful on the diplomatic front. Considering its geo-strategic importance, it needs to recalibrate its position in Iran and be cautious about its relations with the United States in the region. Iran’s October 1 attack on Israel and an imminent response from the latter has opened a pandora’s box. A possible escalation will profoundly alter the balance of power in the region and threaten India’s strategic interests. 

Further, the Central Investigation Agency’s (CIA) alleged involvement in India’s friendly neighbour, Bangladesh, its secondary sanctions on Indian entities for doing business with Russia, and Republican candidate Donald Trump’s recent remarks on India’s import policy are only the latest examples of the intricate nature of American foreign policy. Therefore, non-alignment will continue to be a key component of India’s foreign policy, even if just as pragmatic strategic autonomy. 

Also, India’s world image is crucial for its leadership ambitions in the Global South. Though India supports the two-state solution in the Israel-Palestine conflict, her decision to abstain from the United Nations General Assembly Resolution asking Israel to withdraw from Palestinian territories may impact its position.

Regarding competition with China, the popular discourse is largely misplaced. India is not in a state of competition with China in Middle East, primarily because their interest varies in the region. India, unlike China, is not looking to be the United States’ power alternative. To argue that the IMEC will challenge the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is also inaccurate and unfounded. 

In brief, foreign policy is not a zero-sum game. Beyond America and China, New Delhi has its own case in the Middle East and the Global South.

[Mohammad Gulrez, former VC and PVC of Aligarh Muslim University (AMU), is a Professor of Political Science at the Dept. of West Asian & North African Studies, AMU]

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author