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After 13 nights of consecutive strikes on Iran, the U.S. paused its attack on Saturday (July 25). Tehran has also announced that it will halt its retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in the region if the U.S. doesn’t launch new strikes. Both sides have acknowledged that messages are being exchanged through mediators to reconstitute the ceasefire.

The first ceasefire since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on February 28 was announced on April 8. On June 17, both Iran and the U.S. signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU), pledging to respect each other’s sovereignty and begin substantive talks on Tehran’s nuclear programme. But within a month, fighting started. Why? The U.S. started bombing Iran over the latter’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital international commercial chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. According to the MoU, Iran was in charge of ensuring safe passage of ships through the Strait. Iran opened a route along its coast for international shipping. The U.S. cleared an alternative route along Oman’s coast in the south of the strait, which was not acceptable for Iran. Tehran started attacking commercial vessels taking the southern route. The U.S. then started attacking Iran, seeking to “degrade” Iran’s ability to threaten international shipping.

During the 13 nights of bombing, the U.S. claimed to have targeted Iran’s military infrastructure across the country. But the bombing did little in deterring Iran’s capability to enforce the blockade or stage counter-attacks. Iran targeted U.S. bases across the region while retaining its tight control of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving Mr. Trump in a bind. The U.S. President last week issued several threats—he threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants in retaliation for every Iranian attack on ships and use Iran’s frozen assets to compensate tankers that come under attack in the strait. But neither U.S. strikes nor Mr. Trump’s threats deterred Iran.

What made matters worse for Mr. Trump was the Houthi decision to enforce a blockade on Saudi Arabia. The Houthis (Ansar Allah) who control most of Yemen’s population centres, including Sana’a, the capital, bombed Saudi oil facilities last week after a Saudi air strikes on Yemen. Oil prices soared past $100. The Houthi blockade on Saudi Arabia posed challenges to the Saudi efforts to get their oil out in the market. Already under severe pressure as the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the Saudis had moved much of their crude exports to the Red Sea terminals in the west. The Hindu warned in this editorial published on July 24 that Mr. Trump was getting caught in an escalation trap set by Iran and its allies in the region.

Another challenge Mr. Trump faced, besides the Iranian and Houthi challenges, was the reported depletion of America’s munitions and air defence missiles, according to U.S. media reports. His top generals warned him against further escalation. His intelligence warned him that prolonged war would not soften Iran’s position at the table. Faced with few good options, Mr. Trump appeared to have shelved plans to escalate the conflict and swung back to diplomacy.

So now they are back to square one. For a detailed analysis of the war, see this story we carried recently: The story of a shipwrecked hegemon

The U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal

Meanwhile, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia announced a civil nuclear agreement, and within hours Mr. Trump himself cast doubt about the agreement. According to the deal, the U.S. will help the kingdom develop its nuclear programme. It also leaves open the path for enrichment on Saudi soil. It appeared a good deal for Riyadh which has long sought to build its own nuclear programme. But then Mr. Trump said the deal was contingent on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords. The White House said the “deal is off” if Saudi Arabia does not normalise ties with Israel. Riyadh, which was keen on joining the Abraham Accords until October 7, 2023 (Hamas’s attack on Israel) has since said it would not recognise Israel unless there is a pathway for the creation of an independent Palestinian state. Why did Trump add a new condition after the deal was signed? See this explainer we carried in The Hindu FAQ:

Understanding the Saudi-U.S. nuclear agreement | Explained

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