A global disaster is in the offing and scientists are already warning about it. There is a one-in-six chance that a massive volcanic eruption will disrupt all life on the planet as we know today, this century. Such a doomsday-level event might trigger a “climate chaos” that could rival the eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia in 1815. According to Dr Markus Stoffel, a climate professor at the University of Geneva, as cited by CNN, the intensity of the eruption more than 200 years ago led to Earth witnessing a “year without summer”.

The eruption released 24 cubic miles of gases, dust, and rock into the atmosphere, causing global temperatures to plummet, eventually leading to a 1-degree-Celsius cooling of the Northern Hemisphere.

Scientists warn that even with state-of-the-art sensors and seismic instruments at disposal, predicting when the volcano eruption will hit us is impossible. However, one thing is certain, as per Dr Stoffel: “Humanity does not have any plan.”

“It’s a more unstable world now. The effects might be even worse than we saw back in 1815,” he added.

Climate change influences volcanic activity massively. The melting of ice caps due to rising temperatures can reduce pressure on magma chambers, potentially leading to more frequent eruptions. Additionally, more intense rainfall, another byproduct of climate change, can infiltrate deep underground, interacting with magma and possibly triggering volcanic activity.

Despite the potential for a temporary global cooling following a massive eruption, scientists caution against viewing it as a silver lining in the fight against climate change.

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A bleak future

The economic repercussions of a massive eruption could be staggering, with losses potentially reaching into trillions. Moreover, any cooling effect would be momentary, with the planet soon returning to its warming trajectory due to ongoing greenhouse gas emissions.

Dr Stoffel hopes that sounding the alarm about such a dystopian future would prompt the public and policymakers to better prepare for the event. From evacuation plans to preparing food aid to creating disaster shelters, every policy regarding a catastrophic event needs a rethink

The urgency of the warning was recently felt in Hawaii when the Kilauea volcano, one of the most active volcanoes in the world, erupted again. Scientists measured that it spewed columns of lava 80 meters (260 feet) into the air. The volcano has been active since 1983 and prior to December, the last eruption was observed in June 2024 and lasted about five days.

It is one of six active volcanoes located in the Hawaiian Islands, which also include Mauna Loa, the largest volcano in the world, though Kilauea is far more active.

A column of ash rises over the Gunung Ibu (Mount Ibu) volcano, in Tabaru, North Maluku province, Indonesia May 13, 2024. Screengrab
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Indonesia’s Ibu volcano erupted on May 13 morning, spewing thick columns of grey ash several kilometres into the sky, the country’s volcanology agency said.

The volcano on the remote island of Halmahera erupted at 9.12 a.m. (0012 GMT) for about five minutes, projecting ash into the sky as high as 5 km (3.1 miles), officials said. A smaller eruption was also recorded on May 10.

The alert status of the volcano remains at the second-highest level, Hendra Gunawan, head of Indonesia’s Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation Centre, said in a statement.

All activities within a five-kilometre radius of the volcano were prohibited, he added.

“If it starts to rain ash, we recommend people who are near the volcano to wear a mask and glasses,” Mr. Gunawan said.

Footage of the eruption shared by the centre showed clouds of grey ash billowing from the crater. The official said a booming noise was also heard. No evacuation of residents has been reported so far.

Indonesia sits on the Pacific “Ring of Fire” and has 127 active volcanoes, according to the volcanology agency.

In recent weeks North Sulawesi’s Ruang volcano has erupted, spewing incandescent lava as lightning flashed from its crater. The eruption prompted authorities to evacuate more than 12,000 people living on a nearby island.

In December, more than 20 people were killed after Marapi volcano, one of Sumatra’s most active volcanoes, erupted and belched grey clouds of ash as high as 3 km.

Mount Ruang volcano erupts in Sitaro, North Sulawesi, on April 19, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

A remote volcano in Indonesia’s outermost region erupted again on April 19, local authorities and an AFP journalist said, after the crater threw up columns of smoke and lava multiple times this week and forced thousands to evacuate.

“The volcano erupts again,” said the AFP journalist on the island of Tagulandang which neighbours Mount Ruang.

The country’s volcanology agency later confirmed the eruption sent a plume of smoke 400 metres (1,312 feet) above the peak.

“There was an eruption of Mt Ruang, North Sulawesi” at 1706 local time, 0906 GMT, it said.

“The ash column was observed to be grey in colour… and leaning towards the south.”

While officials said Ruang had started to calm Friday, authorities maintained the highest alert level on a four-tiered system, which indicates high volcanic activity.

They also told residents to remain more than six kilometres (four miles) from the crater.

Indonesia, a vast archipelago nation, experiences frequent seismic and volcanic activity due to its position on the Pacific “Ring of Fire”.