People gather at Republique plaza in a protest against the far-right on July 3, 2024 in Paris
| Photo Credit: AP

French voters face a decisive choice on July 7 in the run-off of snap parliamentary elections that could see the country’s first far-right government since the World War II Nazi occupation — or no party emerging with a majority at all. In Sunday’s first round, the National Rally came first with an estimated one-third of the votes. The New Popular Front coalition that included the center-left, green and left forces polled close to 29% of the vote and came in second place, ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance.

If the National Rally or the Left alliance gets a majority, Mr. Macron will be forced to appoint a Prime Minister belonging to a new majority. In such a situation — called “cohabitation” in France — the government would implement policies that diverge from the President’s plan. The rise of a far-right party in France has not been sudden. When Mr. Macron was re-elected in 2022, his vote share did not increase in any department. In contrast, his challenger from the far-right National Rally Marine Le Pen’s vote share rose across the country, resulting in the far-right’s best-ever performance. More importantly, the rise of the Right in European politics is not limited to France.

Also Read | The far-right swing in European Parliament elections | Explained

In last month’s European Parliamentary Elections, right-wing and far-right parties achieved their best performance in the legislative body’s history. The far-right European Conservatives and Reformists Group and the Identity and Democracy Group together increased their tally from 118 to 131 seats in the Parliament, while the left-Greens’ seat share was reduced to 53 from 71.

Chart 1 | The chart shows the vote share secured by right-leaning parties in the national-level polls of the U.K. and select countries in the European Union. 

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The vote share of right-leaning parties is increasing at varying degrees of pace in each country. For instance, the vote share of the National Rally increased from just 4% in 2007 to 19% in 2022. The German party, Alternative for Germany, recorded over 10% vote share in the last two elections, with the Sweden Democrats vote share increasing from 2% in 2006 to 20% in 2022 in Swedish polls.

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Given that most such parties have an anti-immigrant stance, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights on Wednesday called for vigilance, citing narratives that dehumanise migrants and asylum seekers. One other impact may be on the nations’ views about NATO, and the ongoing-war between Russia and Ukraine.

Also Read | Comment: The spectre of neo-fascism that is haunting Europe

Polls by Pew Survey indicate that in some European countries, positive views about NATO and confidence in Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy have started to decline. In contrast, slight increases in favourable views towards Russia and confidence in Russian President Vladimir Putin were recorded across many European countries in 2024 compared to a year before.

Table 2 | The table lists responses to four questions — Q1: % who have a favourable opinion of NATO; Q2: % who have a favourable view of Russia; Q3: % who have confidence in Mr. Putin to do the right thing; Q4: % who have confidence in Mr. Zelenskyy to do the right thing. The percentage point change in 2024 from 2023 is also listed.

According to Pew Survey, in several European countries, people who have a favourable view of a right-wing populist party in their country see Russia and Mr. Putin more positively than people with unfavourable views of those parties.

Also Read | Turning inward: The Hindu’s Editorial on the rise of far-right parties in Europe

While their support dropped in 2022 and 2023, confidence in Russia and Mr. Putin has climbed back up in 2024 as shown in Chart 3.

Chart 3 | The chart shows the share who have confidence in Russian President, Vladimir Putin, among supporters of right-wing parties.

Note: This article appeared on the print version on July 4, 2024

Source: Pew Research Centre and ParlGov

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un walk during a farewell ceremony upon Mr. Putin’s departure at an airport in Pyongyang, North Korea June 19, 2024.
| Photo Credit: via Reuters

A new agreement between Russia and North Korea reached by their leaders requires the countries to use all available means to provide immediate military assistance in the event of war, North Korean state media said.

The North’s official Korean Central News Agency on Thursday reported the language of the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement reached by its leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang on Wednesday. The agency said Article 4 of the agreement states that if one of the countries gets invaded and is pushed into a state of war, the other must deploy “all means at its disposal without delay” to provide “military and other assistance”.

The deal could mark the strongest connection between Moscow and Pyongyang since the end of the Cold War. Both Mr. Kim and Mr. Putin described it as a major upgrade of their relations, covering security, trade, investment, cultural and humanitarian ties.

The summit came as the U.S. and its allies expressed growing concerns over a possible arms arrangement in which Pyongyang provides Moscow with badly needed munitions for its war in Ukraine, in exchange for economic assistance and technology transfers that could enhance the threat posed by Mr. Kim’s nuclear weapons and missile programme.

Following their summit, Mr. Kim said the two countries had a “fiery friendship”, and that the deal was their “strongest-ever treaty”, putting the relationship at the level of an alliance. He vowed full support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Mr. Putin called it a “breakthrough document” reflecting shared desires to move relations to a higher level.

North Korea and the former Soviet Union signed a treaty in 1961, which experts say necessitated Moscow’s military intervention if the North came under attack. The deal was discarded after the collapse of the USSR, replaced by one in 2000 that offered weaker security assurances.

South Korean officials said they were still interpreting the results of the summit, including what Russia’s response might be if the North comes under attack, and whether the new deal promises a similar level of protection with the 1961 treaty. South Korean officials didn’t immediately comment on the North Korean report about the details of the deal.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are at their highest point in years, with the pace of both Kim’s weapons tests and combined military exercises involving the US, South Korea and Japan intensifying in a tit-for-tat cycle.

The Koreas also have engaged in Cold War-style psychological warfare that involved North Korea dropping tons of trash on the South with balloons, and the South broadcasting anti-North Korean propaganda with its loudspeakers.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. File
| Photo Credit: AP

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister arrived in New Delhi on March 28 for a two-day visit to boost bilateral ties and cooperation with India, which considers Russia a time-tested ally from the Cold War-era.

Dmytro Kuleba will meet with his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on March 29, as well as the deputy national security advisor, according to India’s Foreign Ministry. On March 28, Mr. Kuleba will pay his respects to Indian independence leader Mahatma Gandhi at the Rajghat memorial site.

His visit comes a week after Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladmir Putin, whom India has so far avoided criticising over the war in Ukraine. Instead, New Delhi, has stressed the need for diplomacy and dialogue on ending the war and has expressed its willingness to contribute to peace efforts.

On March 20, PM Modi posted on social media platform X, formerly Twitter, to say he had expressed to Mr. Zelenskyy “India’s consistent support for all efforts for peace and bringing in an early end to the ongoing conflict,” adding that the country will continue to provide humanitarian assistance.

This came after Mr. Modi spoke to Mr. Putin to congratulate him on his re-election as President. According to a statement from India’s Foreign Ministry, the two leaders agreed to further strengthen their relationship, while Mr. Modi reiterated that dialogue and peace was the best way forward for the Russia-Ukraine war.

Under Mr. Modi, India has promoted itself as a rising global player who can mediate between the West and Russia on the war in Ukraine.

In his phone call with PM Modi last week, Mr. Zelenskyy said he encouraged India to participate in the Peace Summit that Switzerland has offered to organise.

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“Ukraine is interested in strengthening our trade and economic ties with India, particularly in agricultural exports, aviation cooperation, and pharmaceutical and industrial product trade,” the Ukrainian President said in a post on X.

At the United Nations, New Delhi, has refrained from voting against Moscow, and has ramped up its purchases of Russian oil at discounted prices following the invasion.

Meanwhile, India has stepped up its engagements with Western powers like the United States and the European Union. New Delhi has been trying to reduce its dependance on Moscow for arms and technology because of disruptions in supplies due to the war. India is also part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, along with the U.S., Australia and Japan.

On a visit last year, Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister Emine Dzhaparova urged India to play a bigger role in helping end Russia’s invasion, saying Kyiv would “welcome any effort that is directed at resolving the war.”