Earlier this month, China declared new “baselines” around Scarborough Reef, a large coral atoll topped by a handful of rocks barely above sea level in the South China Sea.

By doing so, China reaffirmed its sovereignty claim over what has become a global flashpoint in the disputed waters.

This was a pre-calculated response to the Philippines’ enactment of new maritime laws two days earlier that aimed to safeguard its own claims over the reef and other contested parts of the sea.

This legal tit-for-tat is a continuation of the ongoing sovereignty and maritime dispute between China and the Philippines (and others) in a vital ocean area through which one-third of global trade travels.

The Philippines rejected China’s declaration as a violation of its “long-established sovereignty over the shoal”. Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said:

What we see is an increasing demand by Beijing for us to concede our sovereign rights in the area.

As the tensions continue to worsen over these claims, there is an ever-increasing risk of an at-sea conflict between the two countries.

What is the Scarborough Reef?

Scarborough Reef is called Huangyan Dao in Chinese and Bajo de Masinloc by the Philippines. It is located in the northeast of the South China Sea, about 116 nautical miles (215km) west of the Philippine island of Luzon and 448 nautical miles (830km) south of the Chinese mainland.

At high tide it is reduced to a few tiny islets, the tallest of which is just 3 metres above the water. However, at low tide, it is the largest coral atoll in the South China Sea.

China asserts sovereignty over all of the waters, islands, rocks and other features in the South China Sea, as well as unspecified “historic rights” within its claimed nine-dash line. This includes Scarborough Reef.

In recent years, the reef has been the scene of repeated clashes between China and the Philippines. Since 2012, China has blocked Filipino fishing vessels from accessing the valuable lagoon here. This prompted the Philippines to take China to international arbitration under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in 2013.

Three years later, an arbitration tribunal ruled that China has no historic rights to maritime areas where this would conflict with UNCLOS. The tribunal also concluded China had “unlawfully prevented Filipino fishermen from engaging in traditional fishing at Scarborough Shoal.”

China refused to participate in the arbitration case and has strongly rejected its ruling as being “null and void” and having “no binding force”.

What did China do this month?

China declared the exact location of the base points of its territorial claim around Scarborough Reef with geographical coordinates (longitude and latitude), joined up by straight lines.

The declaration of so-called “baselines” is standard practice for countries that want to claim maritime zones along their coasts. Baselines provide the starting point for measuring these zones.

A country’s “territorial sea” is measured from this baseline outward to as far as 12 nautical miles (22km). Under the UNCLOS treaty, a country then has full sovereignty rights over this zone, covering the seabed, water, airspace and any resources located there.

Countries want their baselines to be as far out to sea as possible so they can maximise the ocean areas over which they can reap economic benefits and enforce their own laws.

China is no exception. Along with other countries (especially in Asia), it draws the most generous baselines of all – straight baselines. These can connect distant headlands or other coastal outcrops with a simple straight line, or even enclose nearshore islands.

China is especially fond of straight baselines. In 1996, it drew them along most of its mainland coast and around the Paracel Islands, a disputed archipelago in the South China Sea. China defined additional straight baselines this March in the Gulf of Tonkin up to its land border with Vietnam.

China says these actions comply with UNCLOS. However, its use of straight baselines around Scarborough Reef conflicts with international law. This is because UNCLOS provides a specific rule for baselines around reefs, which China did not follow.

Based on our review of satellite imagery, however, China has only advanced the outer limit of its territorial sea by a few hundred metres in two directions. This is because its straight baselines largely hug the edge of the reef.

These new baselines around Scarborough Reef are therefore fairly conservative and enclose a dramatically smaller area than the US had feared.

NEW: The PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) released coordinates demarcating the PRC’s claimed territorial sea baseline around Scarborough Shoal on November 10.

The PRC’s announcement of a territorial sea baseline around Scarborough Shoal likely aims to legitimize its… pic.twitter.com/2VrI8Dqf6z

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) November 13, 2024

China’s declaration signals that it may have abandoned its much larger “offshore archipelago” claim to what it calls the Zhongsha Islands.

China has long asserted that Scarborough Reef is part of this larger island group, which includes the Macclesfield Bank, a totally underwater feature 180 nautical miles (333 km) to the west. This led to concern that Beijing might draw a baseline around this entire island group, claiming all the waters within exclusively for its use.

The South China Sea arbitration tribunal ruled that international law prohibits such claims. There will be a collective sigh of relief among many countries that China decided to make a much smaller claim over Scarborough Reef.

Significance and future steps?

However, China’s clarification of its baselines around the reef signals it may be more assertive in its law enforcement here.

The China Coast Guard has said it will step up patrols in the South China Sea to “firmly uphold order, protect the local ecosystem and biological resources and safeguard national territorial sovereignty and maritime rights”.

Given the long history of clashes related to fishing access around Scarborough Reef, this sets the scene for more confrontation.

And what about the biggest prize of all in the South China Sea – the Spratly Islands?

We can now expect China will continue its long straight baselines march to this island group to the south. The Spratlys are an archipelago of more than 150 small islands, reefs and atolls spread out over around 240,000 square kilometres of lucrative fishing grounds. They are claimed by China, as well as the Philippines and several other countries.

These countries can be expected to protest any attempted encirclement of the Spratly Islands by new Chinese baselines.

(Authors: Yucong Wang, Lecturer, University of Newcastle; Clive Schofield, Professor, Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security (ANCORS), University of Wollongong, and Warwick Gullett, Professor of Law, University of Wollongong)

(Disclosure Statement: Clive Schofield served as an independent expert witness appointed by the Philippines in the South China Sea arbitration case. Warwick Gullett and Yucong Wang do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment)

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Vietnam’s top security official To Lam was confirmed as the nation’s new president. He oversaw police and intelligence operations over a period when rights groups say basic liberties have been systematically suppressed, and its secret service was accused of violating international law.

Mr. Lam was confirmed by Vietnam’s National Assembly after his predecessor resigned amid an ongoing anti-corruption campaign that has shaken the country’s political establishment and business elites and has resulted in multiple top-level changes in government.

Vietnam’s presidency is largely ceremonial, but his new role as head of state puts the 66-year-old in a “very strong position” to become the next Communist Party general secretary, the most important political position in the country, said Nguyen Khac Giang, an analyst at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong was elected to a third term in 2021, but at age 80, he may not seek another term after 2026.

Mr. Trong is an an ideologue who views corruption as the gravest threat facing the party. As Vietnam’s top security official, Mr. Lam has led Mr. Trong’s sweeping anti-graft campaign.

Following Mr. Lam’s confirmation as president, Deputy Public Security Minister Tran Quoc To was appointed to take over from him at the ministry in an interim role.

Mr. Lam spent more than four decades in the Ministry of Public Security before becoming the minister in 2016. His rise took place while Vietnam’s politburo lost of six of its 18 members amid the expanding anti-graft campaign, including two former presidents and Vietnam’s parliamentary head.

Mr. Lam was behind many of the investigations into high-profile politicians, said Mr. Giang.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is seen as the other major contender to possibly succeed Mr. Trong, Mr. Giang said.

The current vice-speaker of Vietnam’s parliament was confirmed Monday as the National Assembly speaker after his predecessor, Vuong Dinh Hue, resigned amid the anti-graft campaign. Until his resignation, Hue was also widely seen as a potential successor to Trong.

This unprecedented instability in Vietnam’s political system has spooked investors as the country tries to position itself as an alternative for companies looking to shift their supply chains away from China.

A flood of foreign investment, especially in manufacturing of high-tech products like smartphones and computers, raised expectations it could join the “Four Asian Tigers” — Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, whose economies underwent rapid industrialisation and posted high growth rates.

But the scandals and uncertainty — including the death sentence for a real estate tycoon accused of embezzling nearly 3% of the country’s 2022 GDP — have brought with them uncertainty and bureaucratic reticence to make decisions. Economic growth slipped to 5.1% last year from 8% in 2022 as exports slowed.

During Mr. Lam’s years heading the Public Security Ministry, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and other watchdog organisations have strongly criticised Vietnam for its harassment and intimidation of critics.

In 2021, courts convicted at least 32 people for posting critical opinions about the government and sentenced them to multiple years in prison, while police arrested at least 26 others on fabricated charges, according to Human Rights Watch.

Under Mr. Lam’s watch as Vietnam’s top security boss, civil society faced further curbs, foreign aid restrictions introduced in 2021 were tightened in 2023, the country jailed climate activists, and laws were introduced to censor social media, said Ben Swanton of The 88 Project, a group that advocates for freedom of expression in Vietnam.

“With To Lam’s ascent to the presidency, Vietnam is now a literal police state,” said Swanton, adding that the Vietnamese ruling Politburo was now dominated by current and former security officials. He said he expected further intensification of repression and censorship.

While Vietnam was under a COVID-19 lockdown in 2021, a video surfaced showing Turkish chef Nusret Gokce, popularly known as Salt Bae, feeding Mr. Lam a gold-encrusted steak in London. Despite efforts to censor it, the video went viral, stoking widespread anger from people enduring virus lockdowns that exacerbated economic deprivations.

Meantime, a Vietnamese noodle vendor named Bui Tuan Lam, who followed the video with a parody of Salt Bae, was arrested on charges of spreading anti-state propaganda and sentenced to five years in prison.

It was also under Mr. Lam’s tenure as public security minister, in 2017, when German authorities say Vietnamese businessperson and former politician Trinh Xuan Thanh and a companion were abducted and dragged into a van in downtown Berlin, in what officials there called “an unprecedented and flagrant violation of German and international law.”

Vietnam has maintained that Mr. Thanh surrendered to Vietnamese authorities after evading an international arrest warrant for nearly a year. Germany said he and his companion were kidnapped, and responded by summoning Vietnam’s ambassador for talks and expelling its intelligence attaché.

Mr. Thanh was sentenced to life imprisonment in 2018 after being put on trial in Vietnam.

Announcing espionage-related charges in 2022 against a man accused of being part of Mr. Thanh’s abduction, the German Federal Prosecutor’s Office said the kidnapping was an “operation of the Vietnamese secret service” carried out by Vietnamese agents and members of its embassy in Berlin as well as several Vietnamese nationals living in Europe.

The suspect, identified only as Ahn T.L. in line with German privacy laws, was convicted in 2023 of aiding and abetting an abduction as a foreign agent and sentenced to five years in prison.

“The relationship between Germany and Vietnam continue to be shaken by this crime to this day,” the German court said at the time.

Another suspect, identified as Long N.H., was convicted in 2018 in a Berlin court of espionage-related charges and sentenced to nearly four years in prison.

Smoke rises from a building in Hanoi, Vietnam Wednesday, Sept. 13, 2023. Authorities said “many” people had been killed after a fire broke out in the apartment block.
| Photo Credit: AP

Around a dozen people are feared dead after a massive fire broke out at an apartment building in Vietnam’s capital, Hanoi, state media said on Wednesday.

The fire is believed to have started late Tuesday and 54 of the 70 people who were rescued from the building were hospitalized with injuries, the report said.

Authorities are yet to confirm the exact death toll.

The fire has been extinguished but rescue operations are continuing.