War clouds: On the U.S. and Venezuela

admin — Mon, 01 Dec 2025 18:40:00 +0000

Donald Trump’s remark that Venezuela’s airspace should be considered “closed in its entirety” raised fears that the Republican “peacemaker” President may be preparing to attack the South American nation. Over the past few weeks, the U.S. has intensified pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by conducting strikes in the Caribbean and Pacific waters against alleged drug traffickers and bolstering its troop presence in the region. Washington insists that the operations are part of its ‘war on drugs’, and accuses Mr. Maduro of heading Cartel de los Soles, which the U.S. has designated as a foreign terrorist organisation. The U.S. troop deployment includes two amphibious ready groups with over 4,500 Marines and sailors. The Pentagon has also sent aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford. Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory, is hosting F-35 fighter jets and MQ-9 Reaper drones, just across Venezuela’s coast. In October, the U.S. flew a pair of supersonic B-1 Lancer bombers along the coast of Venezuela. It is now evident what Mr. Trump seeks — a regime change in Caracas. And Venezuela’s right-wing opposition, led by Nobel Peace Laureate María Corina Machado, has wholeheartedly endorsed America’s plans.

Mr. Maduro, a self-styled socialist, stands accused of rigging the 2024 presidential election, and Venezuela’s economy has suffered a near-total collapse on his watch, prompting millions to flee. He shares responsibility for Venezuela’s current condition. But the U.S. is not an innocent actor either. Washington’s sanctions have been a major contributor to Venezuela’s economic crisis. In the past, U.S. and several European governments had recognised Juan Guaidó, an opposition figure, as the President in a bid to undermine the Maduro government. Venezuela has long been used as a transit route by drug traffickers from Colombia, the source of most of the world’s cocaine. Yet, the U.S. government has not produced solid evidence to link Mr. Maduro to the cartels or to drug trafficking. The attacks in the Caribbean waters killing civilians constitute a blatant violation of international law. The threats by the Trump administration against Mr. Maduro, irrespective of the character of his regime, amount to an assault on Venezuela’s sovereignty. More importantly, the U.S. seems unwilling to learn from its past mistakes. It invaded Afghanistan in 2001 only to leave 20 years later after cutting a deal with the Taliban. America’s 2003 invasion of Iraq turned out to be one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes. Mr. Trump, who claims credit for ending many wars, must step back from the brink, and seek to resolve differences with Venezuela through dialogue.

Published – December 02, 2025 12:10 am IST

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Venezuela under Maduro — authoritarianism and economic chaos | Data

admin — Fri, 16 Aug 2024 06:07:28 +0000

Venezuelan nationals protest against the results of their country’s presidential election, in Quito, Ecuador, Saturday, Aug. 3, 2024
| Photo Credit: AP

On July 28, Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro returned to power after a controversial election, whose results have been disputed by the Opposition and several countries. The unpopularity of Mr. Maduro’s regime is not under question as he oversaw an economy that descended into a free fall in his 11 years in power. The country’s annual inflation rate skyrocketed to five digits, along with shortages of basic supplies. It slid down the democracy index and touched new highs on bribery indices. Humanitarian and economic conditions have triggered a mass exodus, with as many as 7.7 million Venezuelans fleeing the country.

Chart 1 shows how Venezuela’s GDP (in current prices) started declining since Mr. Maduro’s ascent to power in 2013. According to the IMF, Venezuela’s real GDP saw the most protracted contraction in modern history during the last decade. Between 2013 and 2021, the economy contracted by 75%, the largest for any country not at war.

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Chart 2 plots Venezuela’s annual inflation rate. The country’s inflation spiralled to a peak of 65,374% resulting in hyperinflation in 2018 and remained in more than three digits for nine years.

Chart 3 shows how Venezuela fares on two indices maintained by the V-dem (Varieties of Democracy) Institute — the liberal democracy index and the executive corruption index.

Since 1999 — which heralded the era of Chavismo with Mr. Maduro’s predecessor, the late Hugo Chavez, coming to power — the country dropped on the liberal democracy index and underwent a rise on the corruption index. As of 2023, V-dem classifies the country as an electoral autocracy. Mr. Chavez’s rise coincided with a popular movement against the entrenched two-party system which was seen as failing to empower the masses. His regime sought to redistribute revenues from its flourishing petroleum extraction industry into welfare and this ensured that the country’s dependence on this industry became even more entrenched.

Venezuela sits on the world’s largest crude reserves. As Chart 4 shows, Venezuela’s petroleum exports formed about 80% of the country’s exports and remained in the range, 70% to 96%, between 1960 and 2023, making the country a “petrostate”. Petroleum exports also amount to 14% of the country’s GDP (as of 2023) and until 2019 remained over and above the 20% mark.

Chart 4 shows Venezuela’s petrol exports as a share of total exports and GDP (in %).

However, the production of crude oil has reduced significantly over time. Compared to 1973, when the country was producing 3.36 million barrels a day, the figure slipped to 0.78 million in 2023 (Chart 5). The number of active oil rigs in the country fell from 221 in 2014 to just three in 2023. Venezuela was the highest producer of crude among OPEC countries until 1969. But as of 2023, it ranks 9th in crude production. The drastic production cuts are directly linked to the sanctions imposed by the Donald Trump-led U.S. regime in 2017, a time when oil prices recovered globally.

Chart 5 shows Venezuela’s crude production (in 1,000 barrels a day), and active oil rigs against the nominal price of oil over time.

For many years, the trend of Venezuela’s exports and imports of goods and services followed that of oil prices (Chart 6). However, the current spike in oil prices has not seen a commensurate rise in exports and imports due to the imposition of sanctions by the U.S. Since 2023, following the Barbados agreement, the U.S. eased some of its sanctions and this allowed an increase in exports. However, the subsequent measures by the Mr. Maduro regime to ban Opposition candidates resulted in a re-imposition of sanctions.

Chart 6 shows Venezuela’s exports ($ million) and imports ($ million) against the oil prices ($/bb)

Source: OPEC, IMF, V-Dem

Also read: Nicolas Maduro | Chavism’s designated successor

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venezuela’s economy – Artifex.News

War clouds: On the U.S. and Venezuela

Venezuela under Maduro — authoritarianism and economic chaos | Data