U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday (January 11, 2026) suggested ‍Cuba should strike a deal with Washington, warning that ​the island nation would no longer ‌receive oil or money from Venezuela.

Venezuela is ​Cuba’s biggest oil supplier, but since the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces, Mr. Trump has successfully pressed interim President Delcy Rodriguez to send Venezuelan oil to the United States.

“THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR ​MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO! I strongly ⁠suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” Mr. Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social ​on Sunday (January 11, 2026).

“Cuba lived, ⁠for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela,” Mr. Trump said. U.S. intelligence has painted a grim picture of Cuba’s ‌economic and political situation, but its assessments offer ‌no clear support for Mr. Trump’s prediction that the island is “ready to fall,” Reuters reported ‍on Saturday (January 10, 2026), citing three people familiar with the confidential assessments.

The CIA’s view is that key ‍sectors of the Cuban economy, such as agriculture and tourism, are severely strained by frequent blackouts, trade sanctions and other problems. The potential loss of oil imports and other support from Venezuela, for decades a key ally, could make governing more difficult for the administration that has ruled Cuba ⁠since Fidel Castro led a revolution in 1959.

For Cuba, the loss of Venezuelan ​oil is devastating. Between January and November of last ⁠year, Venezuela sent an average of 27,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the island, covering roughly 50% of Cuba’s oil deficit, according to shipping data and documents from Venezuelan state ⁠oil company PDVSA.

Reliance Industries Ltd, operator of ​the world’s largest refining complex, said on Thursday (January 8, 2026) it would consider ‌buying Venezuelan oil if it is permitted for sale to ​non-U.S. buyers.

“We await clarity on access for Venezuelan oil by non-U.S. buyers and will consider buying the oil in a compliant manner,” a spokesperson at Reliance Industries said in an emailed response to Reuters‘ queries.

State-run refiners Indian Oil Corp and Hindustan Petroleum Corp will also consider buying Venezuelan oil if sales are allowed to non-U.S. companies, industry sources said.

The two companies did not immediately respond ​to Reuters‘ requests for comment.

Reliance stopped buying Venezuelan oil last year

Caracas ⁠and Washington reached a deal this week to export up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude, some 30-50 million barrels, to the United States, after U.S. forces captured President Nicolas Maduro on January ​3.

Reliance stopped buying Venezuelan oil ⁠from March 2025 as President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on nations buying crude from the South American producer. The conglomerate received its last Venezuelan oil cargo in May last year.

Reliance’s two refinery complexes in Gujarat, with a combined capacity of about 1.4 million barrels ‌per day of crude oil, allow it to process cheaper and heavier crudes such as Venezuela’s Merey.

“If Venezuelan barrels re-enter global markets, ‍they are likely to come at a discount, improving feedstock optionality and economics for compatible refiners, even if volumes remain limited,” said Sumit Ritola, lead research analyst, refining ‍and modelling at Kpler.

An acceptable alternative to Russian energy?

HPCL-Mittal Energy, Nayara Energy, IOC, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals have also imported Venezuelan oil in the past, LSEG trade flows show.

Mr. Ritola said Venezuelan oil offered India a ‘politically acceptable diversification option’ to Russian oil.

India has faced pressure from Western nations to curb Russian oil purchases after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine on concern oil revenue may be financing Russia’s war effort.

The United States last year doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, ⁠citing India’s heavy buying of Russian crude.

A Republican Senator said on Wednesday that Mr. Trump had ‘greenlit’ legislation aimed at sanctioning countries ​doing business with Russia.

While some state refiners and Nayara Energy are expected to continue importing ⁠Russian oil, Reliance has said it would not receive Russian oil in January. The decision could sharply cut India’s Russian oil imports during the month to the lowest in years.

“We’ve already seen that Reliance has reduced its intake of Russian crude, which indicates refiners are willing and ⁠able to adapt when compliance or trade risks rise,” Mr. Ritola said.