The rupee rose 18 paise to 96.18 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Friday (May 22, 2026), on slight cooling in crude oil prices, tentative signs of easing geopolitical tensions, and active RBI intervention in the market.

Forex traders said markets found some comfort after comments from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted that diplomatic talks linked to the Iran situation were moving in a constructive direction.

Although Mr. Rubio warned that he does not want to be “overly optimistic,” the comments were enough to calm markets temporarily.

As a result, Brent crude oil cooled near the $104 mark, reducing immediate pressure on the rupee, traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 96.30 against the U.S. dollar, then touched 96.18 in early trade, up 18 paise from its previous close.

On Thursday (May 21, 2026), the rupee rebounded 50 paise from its all-time closing low to settle at 96.36 against the U.S. dollar.

“Another major reason behind the rupee’s recovery is growing confidence around RBI’s planned $5 billion buy-sell swap auction on 26th May. The move is expected to inject more rupee liquidity into the banking system and improve RBI’s ability to manage excessive currency volatility,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

This reinforces market confidence that the central bank remains prepared to actively smooth volatility if global conditions deteriorate further, Mr. Pabari added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.24, down 0.01%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading up 1.59% $104.21 per barrel in futures trade.

“Any supportive measures like RBI swaps or positive deal flows could strengthen the rupee, while absence of such triggers may gradually push the pair towards 97.00 levels,” Mr. Pabari said, adding that geopolitical tensions remain the key risk factor. A sustained close below 94.80 would be needed to signal a broader trend reversal in the rupee, he said.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex climbed 332.39 points to 75,507.09 in early trade, while the Nifty was trading up 84.60 points to 23,747.40.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹1,891.21 crore on a net basis on Thursday (May 21, 2026), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Thursday (May 21, 2026) said the government is considering several steps to contain the widening Current Account Deficit (CAD) amid a weakening rupee and widening trade deficit.

The rupee opened with a negative bias amid a strong dollar and rising U.S. treasury yields and depreciated 18 paise to 96.38 against the U.S. dollar as market sentiments continue to dampen amid simmering tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

Forex traders said rupee remains vulnerable to the rise in crude oil prices as also the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hampering its exports and imports to the Gulf countries.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 96.38 against the U.S. dollar, registering a fall of 18 paise from its previous close.

On Monday (May 18, 2026), the Indian rupee weakened further and closed at a record low of 96.20 against the U.S. dollar.

“The market’s biggest challenge right now is not just direction — it’s confidence. Until there is visible cooling in global tensions and stability in foreign flows, the rupee may continue trading under pressure with volatility staying elevated,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

Mr. Pabari further added that technically, 94.80–95.10 is expected to act as an important support zone for USD-INR. However, with no meaningful signs of easing in global risk factors, the pair now appears to be gradually shifting its focus toward the 97 mark.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.10, lower by 0.09% due to simmering Iran tensions.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading down 1.91% at $109.96 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex climbed 366.71 points to 75,706.88 in early trade, while the Nifty advanced 107.45 points to 23,760.

Foreign Institutional Investors remained net buyers for the third straight session, purchasing equities worth ₹2,813.69 crore on Monday (May 18, 2026), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, a senior petroleum ministry official on Monday (May 18, 2026) said India has been purchasing Russian oil irrespective of U.S. sanctions waivers and will continue to do so based on commercial viability and energy security needs.

“Regarding the American waiver on Russia, I would like to emphasise that we have been purchasing from Russia earlier… before waiver also, during waiver also, and now also,” Sujata Sharma, joint secretary in the petroleum ministry, told reporters at a media briefing.

The Rupee depreciated 35 paise to a record low of 95.63 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Tuesday (May 12, 2026), after U.S. President Donald Trump said that the ceasefire with Iran was on life support with hopes for a deal with the country fading, triggering a surge in crude oil prices.

Market sentiments remained dominated by fears that the 10-week-old conflict could further tighten global supply, particularly after Mr. Trump rejected Tehran’s latest response to a U.S.-backed peace proposal, calling it totally unacceptable.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the Rupee opened at 95.57 against the U.S. dollar and then fell further to an all-time low of 95.63 against the greenback, down 35 paise from its previous close.

On Monday (May 11, 2026), the Rupee tanked 79 paise to settle at its record low of 95.28 against the U.S. dollar.

“Oil prices were largely steady in Asian trade on Tuesday (May 12, 2026) after climbing nearly 3% in the previous session, as U.S. President Trump said that the ceasefire with Iran was on life support, damping the hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 98.14, up 0.19%. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose sharply by 0.85% to $105.10 per barrel in futures trade.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday (May 11, 2026) said the ceasefire with Iran was at its “weakest” and on “massive life support”, a day after he rejected Tehran’s proposal to end the months-long war as “totally unacceptable”.

“It is at its weakest… After reading that piece of garbage they sent us… It’s on life support, massive life support,” Mr. Trump told reporters at the Oval Office in response to a question on the ceasefire with Iran in the wake of the rejection of the peace proposal.

“They think that I’ll get tired of this, or I’ll get bored, or I’ll have some pressure, but there’s no pressure, there’s no pressure at all. We’re going to have a complete victory,” Mr. Trump said.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex fell 525.44 points to 75,489.84 in early trade, while the Nifty dropped 164.5 points to 23,651.35. Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹8,437.56 crore on Monday (May 11, 2026), according to exchange data.

The rupee depreciated 45 paise to 94.67 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Friday (May 8, 2026), as Brent crude prices rose back to $101.00 per barrel after U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz.

Forex traders said investor sentiments were affected after Iran accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire as the U.S. carried out retaliatory strikes with new attacks, which took place in the Strait of Hormuz and civilian areas, while President Donald Trump said the ceasefire was still in effect.

Brent oil prices, which had fallen to $98 per barrel amid the U.S.-Iran peace deal, edged higher to $101 per barrel as investors weighed the prospects for a West Asia peace deal.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.58 against the U.S. dollar, then lost momentum and touched 94.67 against the American currency, registering a fall of 45 paise over its previous close.

On Thursday (May 7, 2026), the rupee pared initial losses and settled the day on a positive note, up 27 paise at 94.22 against the greenback.

“Brent oil prices moved higher by more than 2% in Asian trade on Friday (May 8, 2026) after U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz despite President Trump insisting that the month-old ceasefire remained in effect,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Mr. Bhansali further added that the rise in oil prices took USD/INR higher towards 94.43 this morning in Asian trading, and the dollar index also moved higher towards 98.22 while Asian currencies were a tad weaker.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 98.20, up 0.14%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading higher by 1.08% at $101.14 per barrel in futures trade.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹340.89 crore on Thursday (May 7, 2026), according to exchange data.

The rupee depreciated 28 paise to 94.77 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Thursday (May 7, 2026) as market sentiment took a dramatic turn after reports emerged that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) aimed at reducing tensions and reopening negotiations.

Forex traders said Brent oil prices, which had fallen to $98 on the U.S.-Iran peace deal, edged slightly higher to $101 per barrel after investors weighed the prospects for a West Asia peace deal.

Moreover, factors such as unabated foreign capital outflows amid rising geopolitical uncertainties further dented investor sentiment.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.77 against the U.S. dollar, registering a fall of 28 paise over its previous close.

On Wednesday (May 6, 2026), the rupee appreciated 69 paise to close at 94.49 against the U.S. dollar.

“Markets are currently focused on the critical 48-hour window during which the U.S. expects Tehran’s formal response through Pakistani mediators,” said CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday (May 6, 2026) threatened Iran with more bombing if it doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz, amid a report that the warring sides were nearing an agreement to end the war.

U.S. media outlet Axios reported, quoting U.S. officials and two other sources, that the U.S. and Iran were getting close to a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations.

The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points over the next 48 hours, Axios reported, adding that nothing has been agreed yet. This was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 98.01, down 0.01%.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading higher by 0.65% at $101.83 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share benchmark index Sensex declined 160.24 points to 77,798.28 in early trade, while the Nifty was down 30.25 points to 24,300.70.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹5,834.90 crore on Wednesday (May 6, 2026), according to exchange data.

On the domestic macroeconomic front, the country’s goods and services exports rose 4.6% to an all-time high of $863.11 billion during 2025-26, up from $825.26 billion in 2024-25, despite global economic uncertainties, according to revised commerce ministry data.

Merchandise exports grew 0.93% to $441.78 billion in the last fiscal year from $437.70 billion in 2024-25, the data showed.

The rupee depreciated 13 paise to 94.81 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Wednesday (April 29, 2026), as rising global oil prices kept the currency under pressure.

Forex traders said elevated crude oil prices and month-end dollar demand amid a broader shift toward safe-haven assets dented investor sentiment.

The focus has now shifted to the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, the tone will carry more weight than the action, they said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.79 against the U.S. dollar, then lost some ground and touched 94.81 against the U.S. dollar in initial trade, registering a fall of 13 paise over its previous close.

On Tuesday (April 28, 2026), the rupee depreciated 53 paise to close at 94.68 against the U.S. dollar.

“The oil is above $111 with no resolution to the U.S.-Iran crisis, although the unilateral ceasefire of the U.S. continues and Iran also showing resilience, but the non-passage of ships from the Strait of Hormuz is a matter of concern, keeping oil and the dollar up,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.04% higher at 98.67.

“The dollar was steady before the FED decision in the face of the ongoing Iran-U.S. war. Broadly, the dollar Index is range-bound with war-related uncertainty supporting the safe-haven dollar,” Mr. Bhansali said.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading lower by 0.21% at $111.03 per barrel in futures trade.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates said on Tuesday (April 28, 2026) it will leave OPEC effective May 1, in a major blow to the global oil cartel.

“The rupee is navigating through a phase where global uncertainty, oil prices, and capital flows are all pulling at once. For now, 93.50–93.80 remains a strong demand zone, where dips are likely to find support. On the upside, 94.50–94.80 continues to act as a resistance band,” said CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari.

On the domestic equity market front, Sensex climbed 358.92 points to 77,245.83 in opening trade, while the Nifty was trading up 101.2 points to 24,096.90.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth ₹2,103.74 crore on Tuesday (April 28, 2026), according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, India’s industrial production growth decelerated to a five-month low of 4.1% in March on account of subdued manufacturing growth and almost flat expansion in the power sector amid the West Asia crisis, according to official data released on Tuesday (April 28, 206).

The factory output, measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), expanded by 3.9% in March 2025, an official statement said.