New Delhi:

The Bharatiya Janata Party is leading in six of nine Uttar Pradesh Assembly bypolls held this week, as Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath reasserts control over a state at the core of the BJP’s Hindi voter base.

At 2 pm, according to the Election Commission, the BJP was leading in the Kundarki, Ghaziabad, Khair, Phulpur, Katehari, and Majhawan seats. The Rashtriya Lok Dal, an ally, leads in Meerapur.

The Samajwadi Party – which defeated the BJP in the April-June federal election, scooping up 42 of the state’s 80 seats (up 37 from last time) – is leading in Karhal and Sishamau only.

Karhal is party boss Akhilesh Yadav’s bastion; Mr Yadav won by nearly 70,000 votes in the 2022 election, extending his party’s hold on the seat to over three decades.

The bypolls were triggered after sitting MLAs – including Mr Yadav – were elected to the Lok Sabha.

In Meerapur, the RLD’s Mithlesh Pal is nearly 20,000 votes ahead of her nearest rival, the SP’s Sumbul Rana. The seat was won by the RLD, by Chandan Chauhan, in the last election.

In Kundarki, Ramveer Singh has a massive lead, of nearly one lakh, over the SP’s Mohd Rizwan and, barring the most unlikely turn of events, will flip the seat won by the rival party in 2022.

The Ghaziabad seat is set to remain with the BJP; Atul Garg won it for the saffron party last time and Sanjeev Sharma is likely to retain the seat for the party. Mr Sharma is well over 63,000 votes ahead.

The BJP is also set to retain Khair and Phulpur, where Surender Diler and Deepak Patel are leading their SP rivals, Charu Kain and Mohd Siddique, by over 40,000 and around 9,000 votes, respectively.

The BJP is also en route to claim the Katehari seat won by the Samajwadi Party in the last election; Dharmraj Nishad is over 8,000 votes ahead of the SP’s Shobawati Verma.

And finally, in Majhawan, the BJP’s Shuchismita Maurya leads Dr Jyoti Bind of the SP by 5,000-odd votes; this seat was won by the NISHAD Party in the last election.

Overall, the ruling party has not only retained the three seats it won in 2022 but also flipped two others – Kundarki and Katehari – while also picking up a sixth from allies NISHAD Party.

Voting for these bypolls have been hit by a wave of alleged electoral malpractice, including claims by Akhilesh Yadav that voters were threatened by police in Muzaffarnagar’s Kakrouli. District officials, however, claimed stones were pelted at cops trying to break up a fight between two groups.

READ | UP Official Counters Akhilesh Yadav’s Claims Of Voter Harassment

The Samajwadi Party also accused the police of “misbehaving” with voters in Meerapur. “They are being stopped from casting their votes, voting is getting affected. Police is misbehaving with voters and using lathis on women at booth number 318 of Mirapur assembly constituency in Muzaffarnagar. Election Commission should take cognisance and ensure fair voting,” the party said on X.

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Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath greets the gathering during a roadshow in support of BJP candidate Sanjeev Sharma for Ghaziabad by-polls in Ghaziabad on Saturday (November 16, 2024).
| Photo Credit: ANI

Chief Speaker Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath had finished his speech at the roadshow for the byelection to Sisamau on Saturday (November 16, 2024). Standing near a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hoarding that read ‘Batenge to Katenge’ (Divided we will be destroyed) at Bajaria Chauraha here, Vijay Agarwal, a saffron party sympathiser, recalled Mr. Adityanath’s last words — “We will have to worry about the fact that our votes must be cast from every house”. Sisamau is one of the nine Assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh going to bypolls on November 20.

The fight for the seat, which has roughly 40% Muslim electorate, has become polarising, resulting in a fierce no-holds-barred campaign aimed at bringing deep-rooted social fault lines to the fore. BJP’s Suresh Awasthi is locked in a direct contest with Samajwadi Party’s (SP) Nassem Solanki, wife of former MLA Irfan Solanki. The bypoll to Sisamau was necessitated after Mr. Solanki was disqualified following his conviction in a criminal case.

The BJP has focused on Scheduled Caste (SC) settlements from the beginning, with leaders such as U.P. Finance Minister Suresh Khanna, who is in-charge of Sisamau seat, Minister of State for Excise Nitin Agarwal and Lok Sabha member from Kanpur Ramesh Awasthi making an outreach through public Chaupals. “SCs will be the key in the seat. The SP needs just a section of SC votes to sail through,” said Dharmpal Tiwari, another resident. SCs constitute roughly 20% of the 2.69 lakh-strong electorate.

‘Batenge toh Katenge’ plank

BJP workers are indulged in micromanagement of 55 polling booths dominated by SC communities, with thousands of local-level leaders from adjoining districts spiritedly pushing the ‘Batenge toh Katenge’ plank aimed at uniting large sections of Hindu voters. “We have categorically highlighted the need for unity. Even in rallies, Yogi ji pointed it out that for a stronger nation and (to evade) the danger of getting divided, Sisamau voters also want to be fellow travellers in making a stronger united nation,” said Amit Valmiki, a BJP worker.

The seat has traditionally been a challenging electoral terrain for the ruling BJP, with the party failing to win the seat since 1996 Assembly polls. Mr. Solanki won the seat thrice since 2007 with the help of a strong social base. In 2022, the SP candidate won the seat by 12,266 votes defeating BJP’s Salil Vishnoi. This time the support of ally Congress may also help the SP as the grand-old-party enjoys some support in the constituency which it won in 2002 and 2007 and came third in 2012, 2022.

The BJP which is working to counter the PDA (Pichde, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) formula of the SP by focusing on the Dalit-Brahmin-OBC communities. BJP’s Brahmin faces such as Deputy Chief Minister Brajesh Pathak are galvanising voters with ‘prabuddha varg sammelans’ (intellectual meets).

SP leveraging sympathy factor

SP’s Naseem Solanki is banking on the sympathy factor in view of the conviction of her husband, Irfan Solanki, in a land grab case. She visited temples and engaged in Hindu rituals in an effort to reach out to Hindus. She visited the Vankhandeshwar Temple, offered a “jalabhishek” and oversaw the purification of the temple with 1,000 litres of Ganga water to the Shivalinga during her campaign on the night of Diwali on October 31. The incident, however, led to an uproar.

Ms. Solanki broke down in many public meetings recounting ‘the atrocities’ her family faced urging voters to support them. “Support us in these times of urgent need,” she said, breaking down, at a public meeting near Sangeet Talkies in the town. SP leaders, including party president Akhilesh Yadav and Shivpal Singh Yadav, highlighted the ‘injustice’ meted out to the Solanki family at the hands of the BJP government and called for ‘justice’ at the people’s court. “Sisamau will show the mirror to the BJP. Injustice also has [an end of] life span, otherwise goodness would not have survived till today. The BJP should remember that neither the unjust nor injustice are immortal,” Mr. Yadav said at a public rally.