At the interbank foreign exchange market, Rupee opened at 84.06 against the greenback and stayed almost flat throughout the session. File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Rupee on Monday (October 21, 2024) settled flat at 84.07 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar amid strong American currency against major rivals overseas and relentless foreign fund outflows.

“Investors remained cautious and stayed away from riskier assets due to geopolitical uncertainties,” forex dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 84.06 against the greenback and stayed almost flat throughout the session. The unit finally settled at 84.07 (provisional) against the dollar, unchanged from its previous session’s closing level.

On Friday, the rupee slipped 1 paisa to close at 84.07 against the U.S. dollar, a tad higher from its all-time low of 84.09 recorded on August 5 this year.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.19% to 103.50.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged 1.42% to ₹74.10 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex declined 73.48 points, or 0.09%, to settle at 81,151.27 points. The Nifty also fell 72.95 points, or 0.29%, to 24,781.10 points.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Friday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹5,485.70 crore, according to exchange data.

Analysts attributed the unabated outflow of FIIs to a further rate cut by the Chinese central bank and a muted sentiment towards domestic corporate earnings.

According to RBI data released on Friday, India’s forex reserves declined by $10.746 billion to $690.43 billion for the week ended October 11. In the preceding week, the reserves had dropped by $3.709 billion to $701.176 billion.

“A marginal decline in the value of the greenback against overseas currencies and rise in the domestic equity market supported the local unit and prevented further slide in the domestic unit,” forex traders said.
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“Rupee depreciated two paise to close at 83.98 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Thursday (October 10, 2024) amid sustained foreign fund outflows and elevated crude oil prices. However, a marginal decline in the value of the greenback against overseas currencies and rise in the domestic equity market supported the local unit and prevented further slide in the domestic unit,” forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the Rupee opened at 83.95, registering a marginal rise of one paisa against the U.S. dollar and traded in a tight range of 83.95-83.98. It settled at 83.98 (provisional), two paise lower than Wednesday’s (October 9, 2024) close of 83.96.

“The Rupee traded in a range-bound manner… a firm tone in the domestic markets supported the Rupee. However… recovery in crude oil prices capped sharp gains,” Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said.

“We expect the Rupee to trade with a negative bias on selling pressure from FIIs and geopolitical uncertainty amid the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. A strong U.S. dollar may further pressurise the Rupee. However, positive domestic markets may support the Rupee at lower levels,” he said, adding that Rupee spot price is expected to trade in a range of 83.80-84.20.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.02% to 102.91 points. Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained 1.45% to $77.69 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 144.31 points or 0.18% to close at 81,611.41 points, while the Nifty was up 16.50 points or 0.07% to 24,998.45 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday, as they offloaded shares worth ₹4,562.71 crore, according to exchange data.

“The Indian Rupee remained steady as the RBI left repo rate and CRR unchanged at 6.5% and 4.5%, respectively,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.
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The Rupee traded in a narrow range and settled for the day higher by just one paisa at 83.96 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday (October 9, 2024), after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key interest rate unchanged and shifted its stance to ‘neutral’ that may lead to a cut in benchmark rates in forthcoming policies.

Forex traders said the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy action was in line with street expectations. Moreover, a muted trend in domestic markets and positive U.S. dollar weighed on investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.92 and finally settled for the day at 83.96 (provisional), higher by one paisa over its previous close of 83.97 against the dollar.

The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday (October 9, 2024) kept the policy rate unchanged for the tenth time in a row but shifted its stance from ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ to ‘neutral’ that may lead to a cut in the forthcoming policies.

The monetary policy committee, which included three RBI officials and an equal number of new external members, voted five-to-one to keep the benchmark repurchase or repo rate — which governs the interest rate of home, auto, corporate and other loans — at 6.5% for a 10th straight policy meeting.

“The Indian Rupee remained steady as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left repo rate and CRR unchanged at 6.5% and 4.5%, respectively, in line with street expectations,” said Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“We expect the Rupee to trade with a negative bias on selling pressure from FIIs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A strong U.S. dollar may further pressurise the Rupee.

“Dollar is trading at the highest levels in eight weeks. However, a recovery in the domestic markets and weak crude oil prices may support the Rupee at lower levels,” Mr. Choudhary said, adding that traders may take cues from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes which will indicate U.S. Fed’s further rate cut path.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.09% to 102.63 points. Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained 0.82% to $77.81 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 167.71 points or 0.21%, to close at 81,467.10 points, while the Nifty was down 31.20 points or 0.12% to 24,981.95 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday (October 8, 2024), as they offloaded shares worth ₹5,729.60 crore, according to exchange data.

On September 26, the Rupee declined eight paise to settle at 83.66 against the American currency. File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Rupee declined four paise to settle at 83.70 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Friday (September 27, 2024) amid subdued domestic equity markets and increased month-end demand for the American currency.

“However, sliding crude prices in the international market and renewed foreign fund inflows supported the local unit and restricted the fall,” forex dealers said.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 83.64 and moved between the high of 83.62 and the low of 83.71 during the session. The local unit finally settled at 83.70 (provisional) against the dollar, registering a loss of four paise from its previous close.

On Thursday (September 26, 2024), the Rupee declined eight paise to settle at 83.66 against the American currency. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.06% to 100.30.

Analysts said the market participants were awaiting cues from the personal consumption expenditure data to be released in the U.S. on Friday (September 27, 2024.) Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 0.03% to 71.58 in futures trade.

On the domestic equity markets front, the Sensex fell 264.27 points or 0.31% to settle at 85,571.85, while the Nifty declined 37.10 points or 0.14% to 26,178.95.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday, purchasing shares worth ₹629.96 crore, according to exchange data.

On July 24, the Rupee depreciated two paise to hit its all-time closing low of 83.71 against the U.S. dollar. File
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Rupee fell one paisa to close at an all-time low of 83.72 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on July 25, dragged down by demand for the American currency in the overseas market and significant foreign fund outflows.

Forex traders said the fall in domestic unit came on the heels of a significant downturn in the Indian equity markets, sparked by the government’s decision to hike the tax rate on capital gains.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.72 and touched an intra-day high of 83.66 and a low of 83.72 against the dollar during the session.

It finally settled at an all-time low level of 83.72 (provisional) against the American currency, down one paisa from its previous close. On July 24, the Rupee depreciated two paise to hit its all-time closing low of 83.71 against the U.S. dollar.

“The local unit appreciated slightly during the intra-day trade on supposed intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and overall weakness in crude oil prices,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“We expect the Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on weak global markets and fresh FII outflows. However, weak U.S. dollar and declining crude oil prices may support the Rupee at lower levels. intervention by the Reserve Bank may also support the Rupee,” Mr. Choudhary added.

The government’s decision to hike the tax rate on capital gains dampened market sentiment, exerting immense pressure on the Rupee and the equity market.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 109.08 points or 0.14% to settle at 80,039.80 points and Nifty dropped 7.40 points or 0.03% to 24,406.10 points.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 104.17, lower by 0.21%. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 1.79% to $81.25 per barrel.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday as they offloaded shares worth ₹5,130.90 crore, according to exchange data.

On July 24, the Rupee depreciated two paise to hit its all-time closing low of 83.71 against the U.S. dollar.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

Rupee opened on a muted note and fell to an all-time low of 83.72 against the U.S. dollar on July 25, dragged down by the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and significant foreign fund outflows.

Forex traders said the fall in the domestic unit came on the heels of a significant downturn in the Indian equity markets, sparked by the government’s decision to hike the tax rate on capital gains.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit was trading in a narrow range. It opened at an all-time low of 83.72 against the American currency, registering a fall of one paisa from its previous close.

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On July 24, the Rupee depreciated two paise to hit its all-time closing low of 83.71 against the U.S. dollar. The government’s decision to hike the tax rate on capital gains dampened market sentiment, exerting immense pressure on the Rupee and the equity market.

“Post-Budget day, the benchmark Indian equity indices, BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, dipped by approximately 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, as foreign institutional investors withdrew a staggering $350 million from Indian stocks.

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“Adding to the turmoil, persistent high demand for dollars, driven by defence and oil payments, compounded the currency’s woes,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 104.21, lower by 0.17%. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.75% to $81.10 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 425.14 points or 0.53% lower at 79,723.74 points. The broader NSE Nifty was down 120.65 points or 0.49% to 24,292.85 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on July 24 as they offloaded shares worth ₹5,130.90 crore, according to exchange data.

On July 12, the Rupee settled at 83.51 against the U.S. dollar.
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Rupee depreciated 11 paise and settled for the day at an all-time low of 83.62 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on July 15, weighed down by the overall strength of the American currency in the overseas market.

Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices touched all-time high levels and significant foreign fund inflows supported the Rupee at lower levels.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.53, but lost ground and finally settled at an all-time low of 83.62 (provisional) against the dollar, 11 paise lower than its previous close. On July 12, the Rupee settled at 83.51 against the U.S. dollar.

Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said the Rupee declined on positive U.S. dollar and rising domestic inflation.

“U.S. dollar rose on safe haven demand amid political violence in the U.S.,” he said, adding that rising odds of a rate cut by Fed in September may limit a sharp upside in the greenback.

“Traders may take cues from Empire State manufacturing index data from the U.S.. USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.30 to ₹83.80,” Mr. Choudhary said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading marginally lower by 0.02% at 104.07. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.09% higher at $85.11 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the benchmark indices scaled all-time high levels. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended the day 145.52 points, or 0.18%, higher at an all-time high of 80,664.86 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 84.55 points, or 0.35%, higher at a record 24,586.70 points.

According to the official data released on July 15, wholesale inflation in the country rose for the fourth consecutive month in June at 3.36% on account of rise in prices of food articles, especially vegetables and manufactured items.

The government data released on Friday showed retail inflation increased to a four-month high of 5.08% in June as food items, including vegetables became dearer.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday, as they purchased shares worth ₹4,021.60 crore, according to exchange data.

On Tuesday, the Rupee appreciated four paise and settled at 83.43 against the greenback.

The Rupee depreciated 17 paise against the U.S. dollar and settled at 83.60 (provisional) on June 26, weighed down by the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and elevated crude oil prices.

“However, a firm trend in domestic equities, wherein benchmark indices scaled new peaks, supported the local unit and restricted the downslide,” forex traders said.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.45 and hit the intraday high of 83.43 and a low of 83.61 against the greenback during the session. It finally settled at 83.60 (provisional) against the dollar, 17 paise lower than its previous close. On Tuesday, the Rupee appreciated four paise and settled at 83.43 against the greenback.

“We expect the Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on dollar demand ahead from oil importers as we are heading towards the end of the month. A strong dollar and elevated crude oil prices may also put downside pressure on the Rupee,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“However, positive domestic markets and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) and foreign inflows may support the Rupee. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.30 to ₹84,” Mr. Choudhary added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.22% higher at 105.83. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.80% higher at $85.69 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 620.73 points, or 0.80%, to close at a new peak of 78,674.25 points. The broader NSE Nifty settled 147.50 points or 0.62%, higher at a record 23,868.80 points.

FIIs were net buyers in the capital markets on June 25, as they purchased shares worth ₹1,175.91 crore, according to exchange data.

Meanwhile, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Tuesday asserted that the high interest rates are not impeding growth, and made it clear that the monetary policy will “unambiguously” focus on getting down inflation going forward.

“The country is at the threshold of a “major structural shift” in its growth trajectory and is moving towards a path where 8% real GDP growth can be sustained on a yearly basis,” Mr. Das said, addressing an event by Bombay Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened strong at 83.39 and moved in the range of 83.34 and 83.48 against the greenback during the session.
| Photo Credit: The Hindu

The Rupee paired its initial gains and settled one paisa lower at 83.44 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on June 19 in sink with the domestic equity markets that turned choppy at the fag-end of the session.

Forex traders said the gaining momentum in the local unit was snapped by a firm American currency and higher level of crude oil prices in the overseas market.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened strong at 83.39 and moved in the range of 83.34 and 83.48 against the greenback during the session. The local unit finally settled at 83.44 (provisional) against the American currency, registering a loss of 1 paisa from previous closing level. On June 18, the Rupee had settled 12 paise higher at 83.43 against the U.S. dollar.

Jateen Trivedi, V-P Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said the Rupee traded on a volatile note, showing strength at the opening but giving up gains as the dollar index found support near 104.80. “The Rupee is anticipated to continue trading in a volatile range between 83.25-83.60.”

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.01% at 104.88.

Analysts said the dollar index fell initially as the U.S. data showed the growth in retail sales was lower than expected, though the currency recovered with May industrial output numbers topping the forecast.

Officials of the U.S. Federal Reserve also indicated a hawkish stance to continue, dousing hopes of an interest rate cut until December. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.13% to $85.22 per barrel.

In the domestic equity markets, the 30-share BSE Sensex inched up 36.45 points, or 0.05% to 77,337.59 points. The broader NSE Nifty fell 41.90 points or 0.18%, to 23,516.00 points. Both the indices touched their fresh peak levels during intra-day.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they purchased shares worth ₹2,569.40 crore, according to exchange data.

Analysts attributed the strong FII buying to the firm domestic macroeconomic outlook and a sharp fall in the U.S. treasury yield. The government data released on Tuesday showed the net direct tax collection grew 21% to more than ₹4.62 lakh crore so far this fiscal on higher advance tax payments by corporates, reflecting robust economic activity.

Fitch Ratings on Tuesday raised India’s growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.2%, from 7% projected in March, citing a recovery in consumer spending and increased investment.

On May 30, Rupee gained 11 paise to close at 83.29 against the U.S. dollar.
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The Rupee paired all its early gains and settled with a steep loss of 20 paise at 83.49 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on May 31 amid volatile domestic equity markets and unabated outflow of foreign funds.

Forex traders said increased month-end demand of greenback by oil marketing companies also weighed on the Indian currency even as it found some support due to lower level of crude oil prices.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.25 and oscillated between the intra-day high of 83.23 and lowest level of 83.49 during the session. It finally settled at 83.49 (provisional), registering a loss of 20 paise from its previous closing level. On May 30, Rupee gained 11 paise to close at 83.29 against the U.S. dollar.

Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said the Rupee depreciated on month-end dollar demand from oil marketing companies and importers.

“We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on overall strength in the U.S. dollar amid safe haven demand on the back of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.”

“Volatility in the domestic markets amid uncertainty over election results may also put downside pressure on the Rupee. However, positive tone in global markets today may support the Rupee at lower levels,” Mr. Choudhary said.

Traders are expected to take cues from the upcoming domestic GDP data and fiscal deficit numbers and personal consumption expenditure price index from the U.S. “USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of ₹83.10 to Rs 83.70,” Mr. Choudhary said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.02% lower at 104.64.

According to analysts, U.S. dollar declined after the latest U.S. GDP data released on Thursday showed the world’s largest economy grew at a slower pace of 1.3% against the projected 1.6% in the January-March quarter. This triggered expectations of interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.44% to $81.50 per barrel.

On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 75.71 points, or 0.10% to close at 73,961.31 points. The broader NSE Nifty went up 42.05 points or 0.19% to close at 22,530.70 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday, selling shares worth ₹3,050.15 crore, according to exchange data.