Hours after Iranian missiles rained down on Israel on October 1, President Joe Biden’s administration sent an urgent message to Israel: Take a breath.

Israel, Washington argued, owned the clock and had time to decide on how to best respond to an Iranian strike that the United States assessed could have killed thousands if Israel, with US military support, hadn’t been able to defeat the attack from its long-time foe.

Such a massive Iranian attack had the potential to trigger a sharp, rapid Israeli response that, weeks before the US presidential election, could push the Middle East closer to an all-out regional conflagration, officials feared.

This account from current and former US officials explains how the United States sought to influence Israel during the more than three weeks before its military finally retaliated on Saturday with airstrikes that were far more tailored toward military targets than Washington initially feared.

They destroyed key Iranian air defenses and missile production facilities, weakening Iran’s military. But, importantly, they avoided Iran’s sensitive nuclear sites and energy infrastructure, meeting Biden’s two top demands.

“US pressure was critically important,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US national intelligence officer for the Middle East.

“Israeli decision-making would have been far different had the Biden administration not taken measures to push Israel not to strike nuclear or energy sites.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has denied that Israel avoided striking Iranian gas and oil facilities because of US pressure.

“Israel chose in advance the attack targets according to its national interests and not according to American dictates,” he said.

The first move by Biden’s administration was to acknowledge that Iran would have to pay for the October 1 attack, officials say.

“In the hours after that attack, we promised serious consequences for Iran,” according to one senior Biden administration official.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held around a dozen calls with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, since October 1. Austin, a retired four star Army general, and Gallant would discuss the possible response.

“We knew they were getting ready to do something, and he was pushing for it to be proportional,” one US official said of Austin’s conversations with Gallant.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, like other senior administration officials, worked the phones, speaking with European and Arab allies in the days after Iran’s October 1 attack, explaining that Israel would have to respond but assuring them that Washington was working to calibrate it.

But what would be a proportional response that could deter another Iranian attack?

Although Iran’s October 1 strike only killed one person, a Palestinian who died from falling debris, many of Iran’s missiles were not intercepted by Israeli or US air defenses.

Jeffrey Lewis, a non-proliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said that analysis of satellite imagery showed at least 30 impacts at Israel’s Nevatim Airbase alone.

That could suggest that Israel was either trying to conserve dwindling air defenses or simply thought that the hardened facility would be less expensive to repair than to repel each projectile fired by Iran, Lewis said.

“Israel may have decided that the stockpiles were running low or that interceptors were just too expensive to use on ballistic missiles,” Lewis said.

AIR DEFENSES

When the administration first started speaking with the Israelis, among their potential targets were Iran’s nuclear sites and oil sites, one US official said, although underscored that Israel had not definitively decided to go ahead with these targets.

But US officials worked to present an alternative option that included a set of different measures: Washington worked to impose oil sanctions targeting Iran’s so-called “Ghost Fleet” to offer an alternative measure to the Israelis who wanted to damage Iran’s oil revenues with a kinetic strike.

The senior Biden administration official said the United States worked to bolster Israel’s air defenses ahead of its Saturday strike on Iran. That includes a rare US deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, to Israel along with about 100 US soldiers to operate it.

Before deploying the system, the United States wanted to know Israel’s attack plans.

Biden held a call with Netanyahu on October 9, which gave the United States an understanding of what the Israeli response would look like, allowing the THAAD deployment to go forward, officials said.

As Iran warned Israel’s supporters could be targeted in response to any Israeli strike, Gulf states emphasized their neutrality.

Saudi Arabia has been wary of an Iranian strike on its oil facilities since a 2019 attack on its key refinery at Abqaiq briefly shut down more than 5% of global oil supply. Iran denied involvement.

To address Israel’s desire to punish Iran’s oil sector, the Biden administration rolled out sanctions. That included an October 11 expansion of US sanctions against Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical sectors.

Encouraging the European allies to impose penalties on Iran Air, while at the same time deploying the THAAD system as a deterrent and showing the world that US had Israel’s back were other key elements of this “package” of alternative measures.

And this option, the administration argued, would still be a powerful deterrent and effective in imposing costs on Iran without engulfing the region into a wider war Washington believed Israel does not want, officials said.

NUCLEAR NO-GO

In what many experts saw as a message to Iran, the US military also carried out a strike against the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen with long-range B-2 stealth bombers.

Austin said at the time the strike was a unique demonstration of the Pentagon’s ability to strike hard-to-reach facilities, “no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened, or fortified.”

As speculation swirled over whether Israel might strike Iran’s nuclear sites, Washington’s message to Israel was that it could count on its help should Tehran ever choose to build a nuclear weapon, something the US intelligence community does not believe it has done yet.

Now was not the time.

“The implication was that if in the long term they want US help to destroy such targets – if a decision is made to do so – they’d have to be more measured this time,” Panikoff said.

For Blinken, a calibrated Israeli counter-attack against Iran could open the chance for long elusive diplomatic goals in a regional already convulsing from a year-old war in Gaza between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas and an escalating war between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah, another Iranian ally.

During a trip to the Middle East last week, Blinken told Arab foreign ministers that US discussions with Israel had gotten to a place where Israel will only strike military targets. Iran, in turn, should not do anything else, Blinken said, in a message he hoped would make its way to Tehran.

On Sunday, as the dust settled on the attack, neither side signaled further escalation. Netanyahu said his airstrikes “hit hard” at Iran’s defences and missile production. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the damage from Saturday’s attack should not be exaggerated.

While it’s impossible to predict whether Israel and Iran will de-escalate, US officials say the Biden administration worked hard to create an opportunity for breaking the unprecedented cycle of direct attacks and counter-attacks that began in April. 

“If Iran chooses to respond once again, we will be ready, and there will be consequences for Iran once again. However, we do not want to see that happen,” the senior Biden administration official said.

Biden’s strategy of trying to restrain Israel has its critics, including opposition Republicans in the United States like Mike Turner, a Republican congressman who chairs the House Intelligence Committee.

“They’ve limited the ability for Israel to really impact Iran and its ability to continue to threaten Israel,” Turner told Fox News.

Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the result of the back-and-forth strikes is, however paradoxically, an expansion of potential risk tolerance in Israel that could further widen if Republican candidate and former US President Donald Trump wins the November 5 presidential election.

“If Trump wins this election, I think that the Israelis will perhaps even look for opportunities in the months ahead, now that they’ve demonstrated that they can get away with dismantling Iran’s air defense systems and essentially doing a good deal of damage,” Miller said.

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Israel hasn’t clarified its intention of targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities in retaliation for the Iranian ballistic missile strikes earlier this week on Tuesday. It is as ambiguous as it could be. It is “really hard to tell” if Israel will use the anniversary of Hamas’ October 7 attacks to retaliate, a top US State Department official told CNN on Friday.

“We hope and expect to see some wisdom as well as strength, but as you guys know, no guarantees,” the official said when asked by CNN if Israel has assured the US that Iran’s nuclear sites are off the table.

“I think in some ways they would want to avoid the seventh, so in my estimation, if there is anything it would likely be before or after,” the senior State Department official said.

Iran launched a barrage of 181 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday night, triggering nationwide air raid sirens and forcing nearly 10 million Israelis into bomb shelters. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for the missile assault, targeting three Israeli military bases near Tel Aviv.

Although a majority of missiles were intercepted, there were scattered reports of damage and injuries. In Tel Aviv, two civilians were lightly injured by shrapnel, while in the West Bank city of Jericho, a Palestinian civilian was killed by debris from one of the missiles, news agency AFP reported. The Israeli military quickly announced that the immediate threat had passed, and civilians were allowed to leave bomb shelters after an hour.

US officials have voiced support for Israel and its response to Iran’s missile attack earlier this week. “Israel has a right to defend itself, as any nation does. In terms of what Israel’s response will be, of course, there must be consequences for Iran for this attack. We’ve made clear that there must be consequences,” said Matthew Miller, Spokesperson, US Department of State, during a press briefing.

President Joe Biden opposed Israel’s idea of targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“If I were in their shoes, I’d be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields,” Biden said at a press briefing Friday.

Washington:

The Biden administration is convinced that Iran will attack Israel in the coming days and is preparing to help it repel it , three American sources told Axios, according to which the Iranian attack – in retaliation for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran – could follow the same pattern as the one conducted on April 13, but potentially larger, could involve the Lebanese Hezbollah.

But the administration fears that, unlike four months ago, it may be more difficult to mobilise the same regional and international coalition that helped Israel defend itself from the swarm of drones and missiles launched in April, reports Adnkronos news agency.

The killing of Ismail Haniyeh “does not help” efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza with Hamas, US President Joe Biden admitted, speaking to reporters at the Andrews air base where he went to welcome prisoners exchanged with Russia.

Biden – who yesterday had a telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – said he was “very concerned” about the latest escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

“We have a ceasefire base, it has to go forward and they have to go forward,” the president urged again, in a reference to the phone call with Netanyahu, which he called “very direct.”

Ismail Haniyeh will be buried in Qatar today. The body of the Hamas political leader arrived in Doha yesterday from Iran, after thousands of people attended his funeral in Tehran.

According to Hamas and Qatari state media, the funeral prayer will be held after the Friday prayer at Qatar’s national mosque, followed by burial in the city of Lusail.

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U.S. President Joe Biden, right, shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, on July 25, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the White House Thursday to discuss the war in Gaza — and the possibility of securing a cease-fire deal — with U.S. President Joe Biden and likely Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris.

Mr. Netanyahu’s first White House visit since 2020 comes at a time of growing pressure in Israel and the U.S. to find an endgame to the nine-month war that’s left more than 39,000 dead in Gaza and some 1,200 dead in Israel. Dozens of Israeli hostages are still languishing in Hamas captivity.

‘Gaps are closable’

Mr. Biden reiterated in their Oval Office meeting his calls for Israel and Hamas to quickly agree to a ceasefire deal that would bring home the remaining hostages, according to White House national security spokesman John Kirby. White House officials say the negotiations are in the closing stages, but there are issues that need to be resolved.

“The gaps are closable,” Mr. Kirby said. He added, “But it’s going to require, as it always does, some leadership, some compromise.”

Ms. Harris is scheduled to meet separately on Thursday with Mr. Netanyahu. She is also expected to press him on securing a deal to release the hostages kidnapped during Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel that launched the war.

Mr. Netanyahu, last at the White House when former President Donald Trump was in office, is headed to Florida on Friday to meet with the Republican presidential nominee.

Relationship of 40 years

The conservative Likud Party leader Netanyahu and centrist Democrat Biden have had ups-and-downs over the years. Mr. Netanyahu, in what will likely be his last White House meeting with Mr. Biden, reflected on the roughly 40 years they’ve known each other and thanked the president for his service.

“From a proud Jewish Zionist to a proud Irish American Zionist, I want to thank you for 50 years of public service and 50 years of support for the state of Israel,” Mr. Netanyahu told Mr. Biden at the start of their meeting.

A U.S.-backed proposal to release remaining hostages in Gaza over three phases is something that would be a legacy-affirming achievement for Mr. Biden, who abandoned his reelection bid and endorsed Ms. Harris. It could also be a boon for Ms. Harris in her bid to succeed him.

Following their talks, Mr. Biden and Mr. Netanyahu met with the families of American hostages.

Crucial for Harris

For Ms. Harris, the meeting with Mr. Netanyahu is an opportunity to demonstrate that she has the mettle to serve as commander in chief. She’s being scrutinised by those on the political left who say Mr. Biden hasn’t done enough to force Mr. Netanyahu to end the war and by Republicans looking to brand her as insufficient in her support for Israel.

A senior administration official, who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the White House, said there is “no daylight between the president and vice president” on Israel. Ms. Harris’ last one-on-one engagement with Mr. Netanyahu was in March 2021, but she’s taken part in more than 20 calls between Mr. Biden and Mr. Netanyahu.

Mr. Netanyahu is trying to navigate his own delicate political moment. He faces pressure from the families of hostages demanding a cease-fire agreement to bring their loved ones home and from far-right members of his governing coalition who demand he resist any deal that could keep Israeli forces from eliminating Hamas.

Mr. Netanyahu, in a fiery address before a joint session of Congress on Wednesday, offered a robust defence of Israel’s conduct during the war and lashed out against accusations by the International Criminal Court of Israeli war crimes. He made the case that Israel, in its fight against Iran-backed Hamas, was effectively keeping “Americans boots off the ground while protecting our shared interests in the Middle East.”

“Remember this: Our enemies are your enemies,” Netanyahu said. “Our fight, it’s your fight. And our victory will be your victory. ”

Israel has agreed to delay an expected invasion of Gaza for now so that the United States can rush missile defences to the region to protect its troops there, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing U.S. and Israeli officials.

Israel is also taking into account in its planning the effort to supply humanitarian aid to civilians inside Gaza, as well as diplomatic efforts to free hostages held by Hamas militants, the report said.

Threats to U.S. troops were of paramount concern, it said.

The U.S. military and other officials believe their forces will be targeted by militant groups once the invasion of the Hamas-ruled Palestinian territory starts.

The United States is hurrying to deploy nearly a dozen air-defence systems to the region, according to the Journal.

Reuters reported on Monday that Washington advised Israel to hold off on a ground assault in the Gaza Strip and is keeping Qatar – a broker with the Palestinian militants – apprised of those talks as its tries to free more hostages and prepare for a possible wider regional war.

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Washington, United States:

The Pentagon plans to send the two Iron Dome missile defense systems it had previously purchased from Israel back to that country to defend itself against inbound missiles, a US official and a congressional aide said.

The Department of Defense told members of Congress at a briefing on Wednesday it planned to lease the Iron Dome systems back to Israel, the US official and the congressional aide told Reuters. In this type of a financial arrangement, the ownership remains with the buyer.

The transfer back to Israel could come within days, the congressional aide said.

The Pentagon had been considering and testing the systems as a way to defend the territory of Guam from Chinese missiles.

The White House on Monday said it expected to fulfill additional security requests from Israel as quickly as possible. Biden promised replenishment of interceptors used by Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system as well as ammunition in addition to redoubling the U.S. military presence in the region.

The Pentagon declined to comment.

Iron Dome was developed by state-owned Rafael Advanced Defence Systems with US backing to counter rocket fire from Lebanon that hit Israeli towns during the 2006 war with Hezbollah, and from Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, where Hamas Islamists took control in 2007. It became operational in 2011.

In August 2022, Israel said Iron Dome interceptor had shot down 97% of Palestinian rockets it had engaged during a weekend surge of Gaza fighting.

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Tel Aviv, Israel:

Palestine’s Hamas “must be stopped”, US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Sunday as he reiterated United States support to Israel after last week’s attack by the Islamist group.

Chuck Schumer led a five-member bipartisan Senate delegation which met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of his cabinet, President Isaac Herzog and families of US citizens held captive in the blockaded Gaza Strip.

“We say this to the Israeli people: we have your back, we feel your pain, we ache with you, and we… will stand by you in these difficult times,” Chuck Schumer told a news conference.

He vowed Washington would remain Israel’s “unrelenting partner” and said that in the senators’ meeting with Israeli officials, they discussed Israel’s needs to “defend itself” and “extinguish the threat of Hamas”.

Chuck Schumer condemned the “vicious, horrible, inhuman nastiness of Hamas”, saying “the world can’t move on”.

“If we don’t prevent the threat of Hamas from recurring, it will happen again… They must be stopped,” he added.

More than 1,400 people have been killed in Israel since Hamas group entered Gaza border communities on October 7 and kidnapped at least 155 others, according to Israeli officials.

Israel has pummelled the narrow Palestinian enclave with air strikes and artillery fire, killing at least 2,670 people.

Chuck Schumer said the US Senate would move to prepare an aid package to Israel as the war drags on and reiterated Israel’s “right to defend itself”, and Washington would do “everything it can to get the hostages released”.

Republican Senator Mitt Romney accused Hamas, which rules Gaza, of “holding their own population as human shields”, arguing that any civilian deaths in the Strip are “because of Hamas”.

With hundreds of children among those killed in Gaza, Chuck Schumer said “we have to minimise civilians casualties”.

As Israel seeks to avenge the worst attack in its history, the Arab League and African Union warned earlier Sunday a ground invasion could lead to “genocide”.
 

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