Donald Trump’s re-election as the US president last week comes at a time of extreme volatility in the Middle East.

The president-elect has promised to end all wars. In his usual impulsive and unpredictable manner, he has pledged to resolve the Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office and help Israel finish its Gaza and Lebanon operations quickly.

Yet the Middle East is a complex place. Trump will have much difficulty balancing his ardent support of Israel and his other ambitions in the region, especially given the changing dynamics between Iran and its rival, Saudi Arabia.

Here’s what Trump can expect when he takes office in a few months.

Collapse of talks between Israel and Hamas

Overshadowed by the US election was Qatar’s announcement that it has paused its role as a ceasefire mediator between Israel and Hamas.

The tiny, oil-rich emirate has worked hard over the past year to try to reach a deal to end the war. In the process, it made good use of its close relations with the United States, which has its largest Middle East military base in Qatar, and with Hamas, whose political leadership and office have been based in Doha. This, Qatar believed, would help it gain the confidence of the warring parties.

However, its efforts did not produce anything more than a brief ceasefire last year, which resulted in the release of more than 100 Israeli hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners.

Lebanon Ceasefire: Israel and Lebanon are reportedly “in advanced stages” of reaching a ceasefire agreement. This deal appears to attempt to more successfully implement UNSCR 1701, which prohibits Lebanese Hezbollah military activity in southern Lebanon. https://t.co/lV2KCHvNcj pic.twitter.com/Qq9Gb20icw

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) October 30, 2024

There are several reasons for this.

For one, the two sides cannot get past a couple of main sticking points. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has resolved to eliminate Hamas completely, ruling out a temporary truce. Hamas is demanding a complete end to the fighting and total Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza.

Meanwhile, Washington has failed to play a meaningful role in the talks. While repeatedly emphasising its desire for a ceasefire, the Biden administration did not at any point put tangible pressure on Israel beyond diplomatic rhetoric.

It has also refused to cut off military aid to Israel. Instead, it approved a US$20 billion (A$30 billion) arms sale to Israel in August. This means Netanyahu has had no compelling reason to divert from his mission.

A possible ceasefire in Lebanon

As the chances of a Gaza ceasefire have faded, hopes have been raised about a Lebanon ceasefire.

Washington has reportedly engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts to get Israel and Hezbollah to reach a common ground to end the fighting there.

Israel wants Hezbollah to be disarmed and pushed back at least beyond the Litani River in southern Lebanon – about 30km north of the Israeli border – with a security zone to be established between the two. Israel wants to maintain the right to strike Hezbollah if necessary, which Lebanese authorities are likely to reject.

Israel has considerably weakened Hezbollah in its bombing and ground invasion of southern Lebanon at the expense of massive civilian casualties.

However, just as Israel has not been able to wipe out Hamas, it has so far not succeeded in crippling Hezbollah to the extent it would be forced to accept a ceasefire on Israel’s terms. The militant group continues to possess sufficient political and military prowess to remain resilient.

Changing regional dynamics

Now, Trump re-enters the scene.

His electoral triumph has comforted Netanyahu’s government to the extent that his finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has asked the relevant authorities to prepare for the formal annexation of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

Trump has been a committed supporter of Israel for a long time. During his first presidency he recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and ordered the US embassy to move there. He also recognised Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which Israel seized from Syria in 1967.

He castigated Iran as the real villain in the region and withdrew the US from the multilateral Iran nuclear agreement. He also instigated the Abraham Accords, in which several Arab states normalised relations with Israel.

However, the Gaza and Lebanon wars, as well as the direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran over the past year, have changed the regional texture.

Trump has voiced unwavering backing of Israel against Hamas and Hezbollah, and is likely to resuscitate his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. This could involve strangling Tehran with stringent sanctions and blocking its oil exports, while seeking to isolate it internationally.

President-elect Donald Trump plans to drastically increase sanctions on Iran and throttle its oil sales, according to people briefed on his early plans https://t.co/43wvCXt5NH

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) November 9, 2024

Meanwhile, as a transactional leader, Trump also wants to strengthen America’s lucrative economic and trade ties with the Arab governments of the region.

However, these countries have been shaken by the scale of Israel’s Gaza and Lebanon operations. Their populations are boiling over with frustration at their leaders’ inability to counter Israel’s actions. This is nowhere more evident than in Jordan.

As a result, Saudi Arabia – America’s richest and most consequential Arab ally in the region – has lately taken the lead in voicing strong opposition to Israel. Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has also made a path toward an independent Palestinian state a condition of normalising relations with Israel.

Further, Riyadh is strengthening its more than year-long rapprochement with its arch rival, Iran. The two countries’ defence ministers met last weekend, following a joint military exercise involving their navies.

In addition, Bin Salman has just convened a meeting of Arab and Muslim leaders in Riyadh to forge a consensual position in dealing with Israel and the incoming Trump administration.

Gulf states wary of return to Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran https://t.co/CogsazuGbf

— Financial Times (@FT) November 12, 2024

Where is it all heading?

Trump will need to find a balance between his commitment to Israel and upholding America’s close relations with its traditional Arab allies. This will be crucial to ending the Middle East wars and rebuffing Iran.

Tehran is no longer as vulnerable to Trump’s venom as it may have been in the past. It is more powerful militarily and enjoys strong strategic relations with Russia, China and North Korea, as well as improved relations with regional Arab states.

Given the absence of a Gaza ceasefire, the thin hope of a halt to the Lebanon fighting, Netanyahu’s intransigence and Trump’s pursuance of an “Israel first” policy, the Middle East’s volatility is likely to persist.

It may prove to be as much of a headache for Trump as it was for Joe Biden in a very polarised and unpredictable world.

(Author: Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University)

(Disclosure Statement: Amin Saikal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.)

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Washington:

Former US President Donald Trump, who is the Republican presidential candidate, said he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “like two days ago.”

Trump was asked when last he spoke to the Israeli leader during a Fox News interview that aired on Sunday.

“Like two days ago and he came to my house in Florida, Mar-a-Lago with his wife who was lovely,” he responded.

Trump met with Netanyahu at his resort in Palm Beach, Florida, in July. It was their first meeting since the end of Trump’s presidency.

US President Joe Biden also spoke with Netanyahu last week amid tensions with Iran. Their Wednesday call was the first known conversation between the two leaders since August. It coincided with a sharp escalation of Israel’s conflict with Iran and the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah.

Trump called the lack of conversation between Biden and Netanyahu in nearly two months “pathetic.”

“I can tell you that Bibi has been very strong,” Trump said. “He’s not listening to Biden.”

Relations between Biden and Netanyahu have been tense, strained over the Israeli leader’s handling of the war in Gaza and the conflict with Hezbollah. Israel has said it will pursue its military operations until Israelis are safe.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Chicago:

Disappointed Pro-Palestinian activists said Kamala Harris’ speech to close the Democratic convention in Chicago failed to demonstrate any break from the status quo, after a week in which the most divisive issue facing the party was mostly ignored.

Under pressure to respond to critics of US support for Israel’s war in Gaza, the vice president used her Thursday night speech to repeat earlier calls for a ceasefire and a hostages deal. She said she supported Israel’s right to defend itself while also favouring the Palestinian right to self-determination.

Abbas Alawieh, co-founder of the Uncommitted National Movement that mobilised more than 750,000 voters to protest US policy on Israel, said Harris missed an opportunity to win over those people, many of whom live in battleground states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona.

“What’s needed in this moment is courageous leadership that breaks from the current approach,” Alawieh told Reuters shortly after Harris formally accepted the party’s nomination.

Uncommitted delegates and their allies had pushed unsuccessfully for a prime-time speaking slot at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) to address the latest bloodshed in the decades old Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which began on October 7 when Hamas attacked Israel, killing about 1,200, according to Israeli tallies.

Israel’s assault on Hamas-governed Gaza, with the aid of US support, has since killed 40,000 Palestinians, Gaza health officials say, along with displacing nearly its entire 2.3 million population, causing a hunger crisis and flattening almost the entire enclave.

Rima Mohammad, an Uncommitted delegate from Michigan, said the speech added to disappointment over the DNC’s refusal to let a Palestinian speak, and offered nothing to assuage the concerns of her progressive, diverse community in Ann Arbor.

“I’m actually more concerned now,” Mohammad said. “This is just a bad look. You’re going to lose Michigan.”

A campaign spokesperson declined to explain the decision not to schedule a speech by a Palestinian speaker at the DNC. The decision was made by DNC organisers in close consultation with the Harris campaign, sources familiar with the discussions said.

Party insiders fear the Gaza war could cost Harris needed votes in battleground states such as Michigan, which is home to large Muslim and Arab American populations and college campuses that have been the site of Gaza protests.

The convention was held in Chicago, home to the United States’ largest Palestinian community, according to the Arab American Institute.

The DNC faced pro-Palestinian protests each day in Chicago, including thousands of demonstrators on Thursday night ahead of Harris’ speech. Dozens of arrests were made during the week.

Protesters carried banners that read “No Embargo No Vote” and “No Ceasefire No Vote,” while thousands chanted “Ceasefire now,” and “Long live Palestine.”

“Leading with Israel’s right to defend itself in the wake of 40,000 massacred Palestinians is absolutely tone deaf,” said Hatem Abudayyeh, spokesperson for the Coalition to March on the DNC and National Chair of the US Palestinian Community Network, who said Harris simply repeated President Joe Biden’s positions.

“Harris said nothing new,” he said. “We continue to demand that the US and Harris implement an arms embargo and stop sending weapons and all other aid to Israel.”

Mohammad, Alawieh and other Uncommitted delegates spent the previous night on the sidewalk outside the convention to protest the DNC’s rejection of their request for a Palestinian speaker.

They welcomed a call for a ceasefire and the return of hostages by the parents of one US hostage held in Gaza – Rachel Goldberg and Jon Polin – on Wednesday night, but said they should also have been given a chance to speak.

Pro-Palestinian protesters and delegates said they were heartened by messages of solidarity from the United Auto Workers union and the Movement for Black Lives, a network of over 150 leaders and organizations. Muslim Women for Harris-Walz said on X it would cease operations after the DNC decision.

Ruwa Romman, a Georgia state legislator and delegate who spent the night outside the DNC, said Uncommitted organizers had negotiated with the Harris campaign for weeks and provided a list of possible speakers, only to be rejected.

Prior to Harris’ remarks, only a handful of speakers even addressed the war, including Biden, Senators Bernie Sanders and Raphael Warnock, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

One major Harris campaign donor, who requested anonymity to be candid about their private conversations with the campaign, said they worried that without a near-term ceasefire deal and clear statements from Harris about ending the war and protecting civilians, campus protests could flare again when universities resume classes in coming days.

“We need every vote,” the donor said.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

President Joe Biden speaks in the State Dining Room of the White House, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023, in Washington. The militant Hamas rulers of the Gaza Strip have carried out an unprecedented, multifront attack on Israel, firing thousands of rockets as dozens of Hamas fighters infiltrated the heavily fortified border in several locations and catching the country off-guard on a major holiday.
| Photo Credit: AP

The United States on Saturday condemned the attacks by “Hamas terrorists” against Israel and vowed to ensure the key U.S. ally has the means to defend itself.

President Joe Biden described the assault as “a terrible tragedy on a human level” and said he had spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to underline his support.

“I told him the United States stands with the people of Israel in the face of these terrorist assaults,” Biden said in a televised address from the White House.

“In my administration, support for Israel’s security is rock solid and unwavering.

“We’ll make sure that they have the help their citizens need and they can continue to defend themselves.”

As the attacks threatened to trigger a wider conflict, Biden also warned “this is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks to seek advantage. The world is watching.”

Biden stressed that Israel — which the United States has supplied with billions of dollars of arms — has “a right to defend itself” after the Iran-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas launched air, sea and land strikes.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reaffirmed Washington’s commitment, saying “over the coming days the Department of Defense will work to ensure that Israel has what it needs.”

Meanwhile, top U.S. diplomat Antony Blinken spoke with Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas — whose West Bank-based Fatah movement is a rival to Hamas — and “called on all leadership in the region to condemn” the attack on Israel.

Former president Donald Trump weighed in, blaming Biden, without evidence, for indirectly funding the attacks.

“These Hamas attacks are a disgrace and Israel has every right to defend itself with overwhelming force,” Trump said in a statement.

“Sadly, American taxpayer dollars helped fund these attacks, which many reports are saying came from the Biden Administration.”

Trump’s allegations reflected Republican claims that $6 billion released last month to Iran as part of a prisoner exchange deal was used to fund the Hamas attack.

White House Deputy Press Secretary Andrew Bates said on social media that “this is a shameful lie in every respect, at a time when both parties should be totally united in supporting Israel’s defense.”

The money “can only be used for verifiable purchases of humanitarian needs like food & medicine,” Bates added, in a fierce pushback against the claims.

Israel normalized relations decades ago with neighboring Egypt and Jordan and in 2020 added three more Arab states to the list — the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco — in what Trump considered his towering foreign policy achievement.

The so-called “Abraham Accords” also included sweeteners from Trump, including a promise to sell jets to the United Arab Emirates.

“We brought so much peace to the Middle East through the Abraham Accords, only to see Biden whittle it away at a far more rapid pace than anyone thought possible,” Trump, who plans to stand against Biden in the 2024 election, said.

Before Saturday’s assault, Biden had been hoping to transform the Middle East — and score a pre-election diplomatic victory — by securing recognition of the Jewish state by Saudi Arabia, the guardian of Islam’s two holiest sites.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said Saturday that “this unprecedented and brutal attack by Hamas is not only supported by Iran, it was designed to stop peace efforts between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

“A peace agreement between those two nations would be a nightmare for Iran and Hamas.”

“It would serve Israel and the world well to respond to this outrage by launching an operation that will destroy the Hamas organization — not just contain it,” he added.

Hamas is backed by Iran, a foe of Israel, with Iran’s supreme leader declaring he was “proud” of Saturday’s attacks.

Biden has had recently rocky relations with Netanyahu, publicly criticizing him for overhauling Israel’s judiciary, a step seen by opponents as undermining democracy.