Washington DC:

In the first hour of his second presidential term, Donald Trump on Monday signed a raft of executive orders signalling an idiosyncratic turn in US foreign policy that carries forward the new president’s vision of an “America first” approach. In a wide-ranging news conference from the Oval Office, Mr Trump laid out the framework of how he plans to tackle topics from trade wars to TikTok and said he was “not confident” that the ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel would hold.

He also rekindled his threat against the two major US trading partners–Canada and Mexico– and said he may impose 25 per cent tariffs on both nations as early as February 1, while promising punitive measures on other countries as part of a new US trade policy. He also signed a flurry of executive orders withdrawing the US from the World Health Organisation and the Paris Climate Accord. 

Trade War

Accusing Mexico and Canada of failing to stop illegal immigration and drug trafficking into the United States, Trump said, “We’re thinking in terms of 25 per cent on Mexico and Canada because they’re allowing vast numbers of people — Canada’s a very bad abuser also — vast numbers of people to come in, and fentanyl to come in.”

He added that he was thinking of enacting the tariffs on February 1. The New President also signed an order Monday directing agencies to study a host of trade issues including deficits, unfair practices and currency manipulation. These could pave the way for further duties.

Prior to this, Trump had vowed to “immediately begin the overhaul” of the US trade system “to protect American workers and families.” “Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens,” Trump said in his inaugural address.

Mexico was the largest trading partner of the US in 2023 with a total two-way goods trade of $807bn, an amount that surpassed US trade with China, according to the US state department.

EU Imbalance

Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump took aim at trade imbalances with the European Union too, saying it did not import enough American products. He added he would “straighten that out” by using tariffs or by urging more oil and gas purchases from the bloc.

The EU’s economy commissioner said earlier Monday that it stood ready to defend its interests, while Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said Ottawa would work to ensure it is ready to respond to any US actions.

In his inaugural address, Trump reiterated his plan also to set up an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariffs, duties and revenues.

TikTok

The president ordered a 75-day pause on enforcing a law that would effectively ban TikTok. His action delayed the implementation of an act that came into effect this week, prohibiting the distribution and updating of TikTok in the United States.

Trump has said the app’s Chinese parent company must agree to sell a fifty per cent share to the United States. 

Leaving WHO

The President also signed an order for the United States to exit the World Health Organization, insisting Washington was unfairly paying more than China into the UN body.

According to the order, the US was withdrawing from the organisation due to its “mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic that arose out of Wuhan, China, and other global health crises, its failure to adopt urgently needed reforms, and its inability to demonstrate independence from the inappropriate political influence of WHO member states.”

Notably, the United States is the largest funder of the Geneva-headquartered organisation.

The new President Trump also paused the disbursement of US foreign development assistance for 90 days. The move left millions of dollars in aid in limbo, dependent on a decision by Marco Rubio, who was confirmed as US Secretary of State as the first cabinet member of the new Trump administration.

Leaves Paris Climate Accord 

The president immediately withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Accord, repeating an action he took during his first term. The order extends Trump’s defiant rejection of global efforts to combat planetary warming as catastrophic weather events intensify worldwide.

It would take a year to leave the agreement after submitting a formal notice to the United Nations framework that underpins global climate negotiations.

Vows To Take Panama Canal

In his inaugural speech, Trump repeated his complaint that China was effectively “operating” the Panama Canal through its growing presence around the vital waterway, which the United States handed over at the end of 1999.

“We didn’t give it to China, we gave it to Panama. And we’re taking it back,” Trump said after taking the oath inside the US Capitol.

Trump has been raising pressure for weeks over the canal — through which 40 per cent of US container traffic travels — and has repeatedly refused to rule out military force against Panama, historically friendly to Washington.

West Bank Settler

Trump revoked sanctions against violent Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank accused of abuses against Palestinians, undoing an unprecedented action taken by Joe Biden’s administration. The move is seen as a concession to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu amid a crucial ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.

Asked by a reporter whether Israel and Hamas would maintain the truce and move on in the agreement, Trump said, “That’s not our war; it’s their war. But I’m not confident,” he said.

He, however, said that he believed Hamas had been “weakened” in the war that began with its unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack on Israel. “I looked at a picture of Gaza. Gaza is like a massive demolition site,” Trump said.

The property tycoon turned populist politician said that Gaza could see a “fantastic” reconstruction if the plan moves ahead.”It’s a phenomenal location on the sea — best weather. You know, everything’s good. It’s like, some beautiful things could be done with it,” he said.

Cuba

Reversing another one of Biden’s more recent moves, Trump removed Cuba from a blacklist of state sponsors of terrorism. Biden had removed Cuba from the list only days earlier as part of a deal to free prisoners.

Russia Ukraine War

He also made breezy remarks on his discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the three-year-old war in Ukraine. Trump confirmed he would meet Putin and said his counterpart in Moscow was “destroying Russia” by not making a deal to end the war. He also played down his earlier promises to get a peace agreement in Ukraine before taking office and said, “I have to speak to President Putin, we’re gonna have to find out. He can’t be thrilled. He’s not doing so well. I mean, he’s grinding it out.”

Other Policies

Trump said he could convince Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords, a signature policy of his previous administration.

“It’s only one focus, defeating America’s enemies. We’re not going to be defeated. We’re not going to be humiliated. We’re only going to win, win, win,” he said, as he pledged an “America First” policy of prioritizing US interests above all else. 

Trump is making history — as both the oldest president ever to take office and as the first felon, after a conviction related to paying a porn star hush money during his first presidential run.
 

Donald Trump’s first term gave the world a taste of deliberately disruptive unwanted involvement in the domestic affairs of other countries, with examples ranging from Britain in the throes of Brexit to North Korea where the 45th US president attempted to forge a personal deal with Kim Jung-Un.

US tech billionaire Elon Musk, however, has taken this to a whole new level. Musk appears willing to intrude in other nations’ affairs by using his personal influence with specific decision-makers, governments and institutions, or by attacking them from the sidelines of social media in order to remake them in the way he wants them to be. In contrast, Trump is more pragmatic and could do a deal with any nation provided they fall in line with his “America first” mission, and give him what he demands.

In the past six months, many countries have been subjected to Musk’s “personal foreign policy” initiatives. Until fairly recently, there were two schools of thought on his interest in global politics. Initially, Musk was merely “a mischievous antagonist” who simply loved to shock and appeared largely driven by social media.

But that has given way to nervousness in the face of Musk’s increasingly deliberate attempts at destabilising governments, including his persistent stoking of populist support for far-right parties, and potentially funding populist allies. This comes as current president Joe Biden warns of the growing power of the ultra wealthy in his final address to the nation before he steps down.

Musk wields enormous global influence not merely because of his wealth, connections, and fleet of companies. But arguably because he is a self-proclaimed populist, with increasingly far-right political preferences. As of January 20, he will also be a significant member of the Trump administration.

His political toolbox includes supporting or (more usually) strafing individual politicians (for instance UK prime minister Keir Starmer, or German chancellor Olaf Scholz ). He also backs populist parties such as Reform UK and AfD in Germany. He criticises government officials in other countries, judges and broadcasting outlets in places where he doesn’t live.

Musk’s political involvement appears to be largely aimed at giving succour to populist individuals, parties and causes, as well as actively hollowing out centrist parties in other countries. Musk’s political intrusion, however, has expanded of late, with an apparent eye on election results.

Examples include countries with elections some way off (Canada by attacking prime minister Justin Trudeau), or much sooner (Germany), giving him scope to criticise the incumbents while backing his chosen opposition party.

Musk’s attention is extensive, from attacks on Starmer, to support for Italy’s Georgia Meloni and Argentina’s Javier Milei.

WHOSE FOREIGN POLICY?

The worry for those working in foreign policy is that Musk has proven effective in the role of Trump’s pre-inauguration disruptor of choice, and may well be deployed in the name of the US government to continue his interference and destabilisation. The challenge will then be discerning where Musk’s personalised foreign policy ends, and where precisely US foreign policy begins.

Musk positions himself as the global defender of free speech , in order to soften the ground for Trump’s preferred combination of far-right populism and protectionist, tariff-driven trade approaches.

Musk’s way of working is to encourage national communities and leaders to “rally against rules”, thereby empowering far-right parties, and industry leaders who have spotted an opportunity to deregulate key sectors.

Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg recently announced an enormous transformation of the social media giant’s content moderation policy in the US. The European Parliament’s far right grouping Patriots for Europe supported Musk’s call for greater media freedom.

Both of these conveniently aligned with Musk’s targeting of the EU and EU regulation as “institutionalised censorship”, paving the way for Trump himself to kickstart any number of quarrels.

The buffer zones of common sense, including former UK deputy PM Nick Clegg as (the now former) head of policy for Meta, have been dispensed with. Zuckerberg’s thinking now echoes that of companies, regulators and politicians who agree with Trump.

DISRUPTIVE AND DIVISIVE

Musk represents both indirect and direct state interference as a solo global disruptor and as Trump’s preferred front man. Sitting at Trump’s right hand and – as of January 20 – heading the new US Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) – means it is unclear who is acting, and in whose interests and crucially, who benefits.

Are countries less likely to tell Musk and Trump to back off, aware of the risk of a deluge of ire with very real consequences in terms of trade spats? This is certainly the approach of many, including Marietje Schaake, former European parliamentarian, arguing that: “Musk must be seen as representing the US president when he bets against the leadership of key European nations, allies until now.”

Or are countries just as likely to disregard Musk, betting that the ramped up performative bullying inherited from Trump can be largely ignored?

RESPONDING TO INTERFERENCE

While many may push back, only a few have the ability to make a difference in global politics, and the EU is one such example. The European Commission made clear that it closely watched Musk’s recent X livestream session with Alice Weidel, leader of German’s far right party AfD. This was in order to decide whether X itself provides (in this case) the AfD with an unfair public advantage – largely through the manipulation of algorithms designed to swamp competing non-AfD voices ahead of February’s German election.

The European Commission – in its role as enforcer of Europe’s Digital Services Act (DSA) – could impose high fines, or blocks. But it will need serious political will to do so, as well as incontrovertible evidence to prove that X is causing risk to the public by augmenting unlawful hate speech.

What are the consequences of Musk’s rollercoaster ride into global affairs? Deregulation is likely to be the order of the day. Maga has long pushed for a “small state/big companies” approach and this is likely to continue under Musk’s leadership of Doge.

There could also be problems ahead for those who don’t understand Musk’s role. Casualties here could include prospective secretary of state Marco Rubio along with US foreign policy officials in Washington (and their counterparts around the world), all of whom may be confused by whose agenda is being carried out.

But a slew of angry international allies is a poor start for any new government. Violating the “norms of responsible conduct” – however flippantly Musk regards them – will not ultimately assist in Trump himself being effective, but rather just more disruptive.

(Author: Amelia Hadfield, Head of Department of Politics, University of Surrey)

(Disclosure Statement: Amelia Hadfield has received Jean Monnet /Erasmus+ and Horizon Europe funding from the European Commission)

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
 

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)