Leftwing leader Jeremy Corbyn, who has represented Islington North in the U.K. Parliament since 1983, won the constituency for a historic 11th time in the July 4 election. Mr. Corbyn, who led the Labour Party from 2015 to 2020, is one of the six Independent MPs currently sitting in the U.K. Parliament, out of a total of 650 members.

Over the years, Mr. Corbyn has emerged as a tall figure of the British Left. Even though he was unceremoniously suspended from Labour in 2020, Mr. Corbyn has spent most of his life as a Labour leader, as a socialist on the political left. His tenure as the party leader was marred by complaints of antisemitism from within the ranks.

In July 2018, three Jewish newspapers in the U.K. printed the same headline — “United We Stand” — to draw attention to alleged antisemitism under Mr. Corbyn’s leadership. The Labour Party responded by saying there was no threat to the Jewish people, after concerns were raised regarding the party’s “failure” to completely adopt the definition of ‘antisemitism’ as given by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance.

A 2013 video of Mr. Corbyn speaking at a meeting convened by the Palestinian Return Centre also later became a focal point of criticism from Zionists. In his speech, he called Zionists out for two problems: “One is that they don’t want to study history and, secondly, having lived in this country for a very long time, probably all their lives, they don’t understand English irony either.” Mr. Corbyn had dismissed allegations of antisemitism as “political”. He said he supported “a zero-tolerance policy towards all forms of racism”.

Mr. Corbyn has never shied away from supporting the Palestinian cause, which forms a cornerstone of his politics even today. He has showed up at multiple protests demanding a ceasefire in Gaza following Israel’s invasion of the strip after Hamas’s attacks on October 7, 2023. Mr. Corbyn also questioned former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s refusal to support calls for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Mr. Corbyn’s position as a backbench MP over the years has also allowed him to freely express his views, even if those are against the party’s official policies. He has often been called the “most rebellious Labour MP of recent times”. By 2015, he had voted against the party leadership over 500 times since when former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair came to power in 1997. He voted against the Blair government’s decision to join the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. As the Labour leader in 2016, he called the war a “catastrophe” after the Chilcot Report found that Mr. Blair knowingly exaggerated the threat posed by Iraq’s Saddam Hussein.

LGBTQ rights

The Independent MP has also been a long-time ally of LGBTQ rights in the U.K. He famously spoke in favour of the community in 1983, although a statement in 2017 where he said people should not be persecuted if they “chose” to be gay or lesbian drew criticism from some sections of society. The U.K. allowed same-sex marriage in 2013.

Mr. Corbyn’s connect with the voters of his Islington North constituency is no surprise — he has been their candidate of choice to Parliament for over 40 years now. Islington is a diverse area in North London. According to the 2021 Census, 7.1% of Islington residents identified their ethnic group within the “other” category (”Arab” or “any other ethnic group”).

“Corbyn always showed up to the protests and gatherings [in Islington North] which the local community appreciated immensely,” Annapurna Menon, a Sheffield University teaching associate who lived in Islington North while pursuing her PhD, told The Hindu. Ms. Menon reminisced about talking to Mr. Corbyn during a Black Lives Matter protest in the constituency, and how he stood as “a symbol against oppression and for resistance” for the local Islington community. In his last monthly update before the elections, Mr. Corbyn said the issues related to housing, refugees, and environment will continue to be of prime importance to him. He also added that he was “determined to ensure Gaza stays at the forefront of our politicians’ minds”.

Elections herald change in UK with a Labour landslide, but also France and Iran, while the campaign trail hits a shocking turn in the US- Should New Delhi worry about losing friends in high places and how will results change the geopolitical landscape for India?

Hello and Welcome to WorldView at The Hindu with me Suhasini Haidar

If 2024 is the year of elections, with 64 countries going to vote, then the past week is particularly interesting- with 4 of the world’s most prominent leaders watching results of their campaigns closely- US President Biden, Iranian Supreme Leader Khameini, French President Macron….and the biggest loser this week -UK PM Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

They were crushed in a landslide by the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer- that won the biggest mandate since Tony Blair and ended a 14 year-4 term run in office that saw 5 Conservative Prime Ministers from David Cameron to Rishi Sunak

The Labour Party leader Keir Starmer, a former Human Rights lawyer and prosecutor will now lead one of the strongest majorities in the UK Parliament. Another strong showing has come from the ultra-right Reform Party led by Nigel Farage- accused of outright bigotry and a very tough anti-immigration line- which will no doubt drive the new labour government.

What does the UK loss mean for India:

1. Loss of Sunak, Britain’s first Indian-Origin PM

2. The new government will take a different line on immigration – has promised to appoint special prosecutors to crack down illegal immigrants, and sign Returns agreements with countries to send back

3. Labour past policies troubling- and though Starmer has disavowed its past positions on Kashmir and Khalistan, the worries of many Labour MPs advocating anti-India stands remains

4. The India-UK FTA has been in the works for years has not been completed. While the Labour Party is committed to the FTA, the question is, will it reopen the chapters already negotiated. At an India Global Conference, Shadow Minister David Lammy was very optimistic of completing it soon.

Across the channel, France is also seeing a second round of parliamentary elections that may severely dent President Macron’s grip on governance. The elections, which have been called 3 years early were announced after Macron’s Centrist coalition was defeated badly in June’s European Parliament elections by the Right wing National Rally -Rassemblement National. In the first round, Macron’s party came 3rd to both the ultra right RN and the Leftist bloc that combines Socialists, Communists and the Green party. If the RN were to win it would be the first time a right wing party, once accused of being anti semitic and fascist would control the French parliament since world war 2.

What does the right surge mean for India

1. If Macron is weakened by the results, that may impact France India ties too- certainly Macron has been a major friend, stepped in to be Republic Day chief guest this year after US President declined, has signed a number of major agreements with India in past 5 yrs

2. Immigration- France had begun to take a more progressive look at immigration, bring in new policies for students, and make speaking French a more stringent clause

3. RN’s leader Marine Le Pen has advocated a France First economic policy, and while she has softened her anti-EU position, might make the trade negotiations with India that much more difficult

4. Legislative gridlock that could follow from a hung parliament will make every negotiation difficult at a time France and India has growing strategic ties, also on trade, nuclear and renewable energy and defence.

Next, an election we haven’t followed as closely perhaps- in Iran, which is going to polls after a shocking helicopter crash killed its President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister, also after conflict with Israel, and after the major anti-Hijab demonstrations. The first round of these elections had two startling outcomes- a very low turnout of 40%, which is being read as a boycott of polls by an overwhelming number of voters unhappy with the regime. And in the results of the first round, Masoud Pezeshkian, a surgeon who was the Minister of Health and seen as a reformist, one who has advocated more reconciliation with the west won more votes than Khamenei protégé Saeed Jalili, Iran’s former chief nuclear negotiator. 

Here’s what to watch out for in India:

1. A win for Khamenei’s choice Jalili would no doubt signal continuity, and the same policies that India forged with his predecessor- in terms of Chabahar

2. However, Jalili’s win would also mean a continuation of US sanctions on Iran, that are already a cause for worry for India

3. A reformist win could bring in some relief internally in terms of women’s rights -Pezeshkian had publicly criticised the regime for the death of women’s activist Mahsa Amini over not wearing the hijab

4. However, real power remains with the Supreme leader and clergy, so no major policy changes can be expected

Finally, while this election is still months away, the US campaign hit a dramatic note this week in the aftermath of a disastrous drubbing to US President Joseph Biden by former President Donald Trump- with many calling for 82-year-old Biden, who appeared infirm and incoherent, to step aside in favour of another candidate as polls show Trump far ahead. Biden is said to be considering his options, but is expected to make another show of strength, in interviews and hosting a mega NATO Summit with Indo-Pacific leaders as well as Ukraine President Zelenskyy next week.

 What does it mean for India?

1. India has dealt with both Biden and Trump, and strategic and defence ties have improved with both

2. However, the Biden administration is getting tougher on India’s Russia ties, and PM Modi’s visit to Moscow next week will be seen dimly

3. While Trump has been seen as softer on Russia in the past, he also brings unpredictability and open threats, of the kind seen with Iran sanctions, and India may have to make tough choices there

4. On the economy too, Trump will drive a harder deal

35. While Biden is seen as more problematic on the issue of human rights, and the ongoing Pannun case on alleged transnational repression by India

 WV Take: The larger theme from elections in UK, France, Iran, US is that economic distress, inflation are underlying issues for people everywhere, spurring democratic change. A resultant strengthening of conservative right wing values- including anti-immigration, xenophobia and racism is a larger worry, even as Indians continue to be amongst the largest groups of illegal immigrants to Europe and US. These will have a bearing on both bilateral ties and foreign policy in the future.

 WV Book recommendations:

1. Biographies of new UK PM- Keir Starmer: by Tom Baldwin and Red Knight: The Unauthorised Biography of Sir Keir Starmer by Michael A. Ashcroft

2. The Conservative Party After Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation Kindle Edition by Tim Bale

3. Great Britain?: The instant Sunday Times bestseller and must-read for the 2024 General Election Kindle Edition by Torsten Bell

4. Politics On the Edge: by Rory Stewart also co host of podcast The Rest is Politics

5. The Macron Régime: The Ideology of the New Right in France by Charles Devellennes

6. Revolutionary Iran : A History of the Islamic Republic by Michael Axworthy

Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar

Production: Gayatri Menon and Shibu Narayan

“I changed Labour. I will fight for you and change Britain,” Keir Starmer, chief of the Labour party, wrote on X on May 28, as part of his campaign for the U.K. elections, held on July 4.

Also read: U.K. General Election 2024 LIVE updates

And as can be seen by the results, Britain desperately desires change. Mr. Starmer and his Labour party won the mandate of the people by an overwhelming margin. Labour is poised to win 410 seats out of the total 650 in the U.K’s House of Commons, according to exit polls.

Such a landslide victory was the direct result of the changes brought about by Mr. Starmer to the identity of the Labour party from former leader Jeremy Corbyn’s time. Mr. Starmer, who became an MP in 2015, ran for leadership of Labour in 2020 after Mr. Corbyn, a leftist, resigned following the party’s defeat in the 2019 election.

Also Read: U.K. election results 2024: Interactive map

Mr. Starmer stood for the leadership race with an agenda of 10 key pledges, which he stated was ‘based on the moral case for socialism’. Some of the key pledges include an increase of income tax for 5% of top earners, restricting the U.K.’s arms sales, nationalising the rail, mail, energy and water sectors, a new Green Deal, strengthening workers rights, etc. But since his election as party leader, Mr. Starmer has abandoned most of these promises.

Brexit, COVID and Ukraine war

Mr. Starmer’s recurring defence has been that Brexit, the COVID pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and the disastrous policies of the Tory government had completely destroyed the nation’s economic progress. What is of utmost priority, at the present moment, is economic and financial stability. This is reflected in Labour’s election manifesto as well.

In the manifesto, Labour pledges to nationalise just the railways. It also walked back on the promise of raising taxes of the top rich as it’s a ‘different situation’ now that the U.K. has its highest tax burden since the Second World War. Mr. Starmer has also put on hold a €28 billion climate investment promise which he made in 2022.

Additionally, he has been accused of carrying out a systemic phasing out of the more left-wing candidates of the party. This internal divide has come out in full force recently as decisions are being taken about the candidates to be fielded by the party for the coming election. A couple of incumbent leftwing MPs have been banned from standing for elections. Diane Abbott, the first Black woman MP in the U.K. said Labour was carrying out a “cull of leftwingers”.

Another common link being drawn between the banned MPs has been their call for a permanent and immediate ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza. Mr. Starmer has, contrarily, thrown his weight behind Israel, upholding its “right to defend itself”. At one point, when asked whether cutting off water and power supplies into Gaza would be an appropriate response, he replied: “I think that Israel does have that right”. It is only recently, after Israel’s Rafah onslaught began, that Mr. Starmer called for a ceasefire ‘that lasts’.

Some say the shift from the initial pledges to status quo has been an act of betrayal by Mr. Starmer, a tool used to gain votes from both sides of the party for leadership. Others say it’s part of his pragmatic and solution-oriented outlook on politics.

Idealist to realist

Mr. Starmer was born into a working class family in 1962. He has repeatedly drawn attention to this fact to emphasise his commitment to the working people and trade unions. He grew up in poverty, being one among four siblings with an ailing mother. His father used to work as a toolmaker in his village in Surrey. Following his schooling, Mr. Starmer went on to study law, and became the first person in his family to graduate college.

Mr. Starmer’s record as a human rights lawyer had earned him a good deal of ire from both the progressive and conservative factions of society before he had even entered politics.

The Opposition leader has always centred human rights in his practice. In his early days, he would travel across Caribbean countries defending convicts against the death penalty, a punishment he says “horrifies him”. He was also involved in the famous Mclibel case wherein he defended two environmentalists who were taken to court by McDonalds on charges of libel for stating that the company was damaging the environment.

He was deeply committed to bringing out large-scale change, often feeling frustrated at the lack of systemic changes through individual cases.

His shift towards a ‘realist’ started in 2003, when he was appointed the human rights adviser to the Policing Board in Northern Ireland. From 2008 to 2013, he had been the Director of Public Prosecutions and Head of the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS). He would later reflect on his time in these institutions as key to his political approach.

“I came better to understand how you can change by being inside and getting the trust of people”, he said.

As Director of the CPS, Mr. Starmer tried to stay true to his human rights-based approach. For example, certain high profile sexual abuse cases led him to change the CPS’s guidelines on sexual assault cases wherein prosecutors were asked to start from a position of believing the victim. He also brought to book several MPs over false accounting charges. However, he was decried for his disproportionate response towards student protestors in 2010 wherein he advocated for rapid sentencing. He has also faced public scrutiny for refusing to prosecute police officers in cases such as that of Jean Charles de Menendez, a Brazilian immigrant who was killed by police who mistook him for a terror suspect, and Ian Tomlinson, who was killed by policemen during a protest against the 2009 G-20 summit.

However, as Director of the CPS, his role in the Julian Assange extradition trial must be one of his least known cases. Mr. Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, who was recently released on June 24 from the high-security Belmarsh prison in London, was involved in a prolonged legal battle against his extradition to the U.S. Mr. Starmer had tried to fast-track Mr. Assange’s extradition to the U.S — he took various trips to the U.S. with respect to the case, and persuaded the Swedish authorities to keep their case of extradition open.

A ‘New Deal’

Some experts state that Mr. Starmer has no ideology. Some others have compared him to Tony Blair because of his apathy towards ideology and his drive to revamp the Labour party, especially after the Corbyn years.

However, unlike Tony Blair, Mr. Starmer has called for the party to take up the cause of the workers and the trade unions, upheld nationalisation of public industries and talked about putting more money into businesses. He is fully committed to Labour’s “New Deal for Working People”, which calls for expanding collective bargaining and granting workers’ basic rights, such as sick pay, parental leave and protection against unfair dismissal. He doesn’t support giving markets a free rein but believes in shaping the market for economic growth through policy. He also believes in climate justice and setting up of green industries. Thus, Mr. Starmer has firmly placed the party in a centrist position. His vision has been coined by some as Starmerism, wherein economic stability, workers rights and climate justice hold precedence.

However, with a stagnant economy, a health system in shambles, collapsing public services, and high national debt, it is to be seen whether Starmerism can hold ground in Britain, even with a parliamentary majority.

Britain’s centrist Liberal Democrats, right-wing Reform UK, Greens and other smaller parties won more than 40% of the votes in July 4 election, but secured just 18% of the seats in parliament due to the country’s first-past-the-post system. 

The Labour Party will form the next government after winning 63% of seats with 34% of all votes cast, according to near-complete results, more than doubling its number of seats with fewer votes than it received in the last election in 2019. 

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s path to Downing Street was cleared by a collapse in the Conservative vote, which saw disaffected supporters splinter into backing the centrist Liberal Democrats and right-wing populists Reform UK. 

That trend, and a lower turnout, outweighed Labour losing some of its own support to the Greens and independents over issues such as Gaza. 

Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, won more than 4 million votes but just four seats. 

It pushed the Conservatives into third place or lower in scores of seats won by Labour, particularly in areas that voted leave in the 2016 EU referendum. 

Farage, who won his first seat in Britain’s parliament in Clacton, said first past the post was a “very demanding problem for smaller parties”. 

He said he would build a national movement over the course of the next few years and “hopefully be big enough to challenge the general election properly in 2029”. 

The Liberal Democrats turned 3.49 million votes, fewer than Reform, into a record 71 seats, thanks to targeting areas where it was already the challenger to the Conservatives, mainly in southern England. 

The Green party, which until now had only ever won a single seat in Brighton on England’s south coast, received 1.9 million votes. Like the Lib Dems, it targeted its campaign, and was rewarded with four seats. — Reuters

London:

Here are some key issues at stake in the UK general election on Thursday:

– Will jaded voters turn out? –

The main opposition Labour party is widely predicted to win and has been determined not to take any risks, making for a lacklustre election campaign.

For the past two years, polling has suggested that Labour is 20 points ahead of the Conservatives, and no amount of campaigning has managed to shift the dial.

But if that indicates a desire for change after 14 years of Tory government, there does not appear to be much enthusiasm for Labour’s plans.

Indeed, Labour has repeatedly warned that it does not have a “magic wand” to change the country overnight.

The apathy extends to both leaders, with 72 percent having an unfavourable opinion of Tory leader Rishi Sunak and 51 percent of Labour’s Keir Starmer, according to a YouGov poll this month.

That has prompted questions about whether voters will turn out in large numbers spurred on by the promise of change or remain at home jaded by years of chaos and no great love for party leaders. 

Labour figures have made no secret of their concerns surrounding voter apathy, with dozens of seats closely contested and up for grabs.

Turnout (67.3 percent in 2019) will provide an indicator of voters’ distrust of their political class, and a challenge for the next government.

– Lucky number eight for Farage? –

An unexpected addition to the campaign, Nigel Farage — the Brexit figurehead who has now become the spokesperson of hard-right, anti-immigration views — entered the race as the leader of Reform UK.

Despite a surge in the polls, the UK’s first-past-the-post system makes outright victory for the 60-year-old former European parliamentarian and his party unlikely.

If he succeeds at his eighth attempt to get a seat in parliament as the MP for Clacton-on-Sea in east England, Farage — a Donald Trump ally — will have even more visibility.

If he fails, his startup Reform UK party, currently polling around 19 percent, would still play a decisive role in the race between the Tories and Labour in several constituencies.

– Tory wipeout? –

Several polls suggest the party of Winston Churchill, Margaret Thatcher and Boris Johnson will win fewer seats than the 141 it secured in 1906, in what would be the worst result since its creation in 1834.

Speculation has already started about who would succeed Rishi Sunak to lead the fragmented party. 

It remains to be seen how many big names will save their seats and what direction the party, which was centrist under David Cameron (2010-2015) and then drifted to the right, can take.

In the event of Reform’s success, some Tories would not object to an alliance.

– Weakened Scottish nationalists? –

Nothing seems to be going right for the Scottish National Party (SNP), which has dominated the devolved nation’s politics for the last 15 years. 

The surprise resignation of charismatic first minister Nicola Sturgeon in 2023 destabilised the party. Her successor Humza Yousaf only lasted a year.

The left-wing party is still the target of a probe into its finances in which Sturgeon’s husband was implicated and does not have a viable strategy to deliver independence, a fight that was revived by Brexit but blocked by London.

First Minister John Swinney insists that winning in a majority of Scotland’s 59 UK parliamentary constituencies would be a green light for him to launch fresh negotiations on another referendum with the new government in London.

The SNP currently holds 43 seats. But Labour looks set to use its national momentum to reassert its dominance in Scotland. July 4 promises to be the first electoral test for the pro-independent movement’s difficulties.

– Return of the Lib Dems? –

Ed Davey has run an offbeat campaign, gliding down a waterslide, falling off a paddleboard, roasting marshmallows, building sandcastles, bungee jumping and even Zumba dancing. 

His stunts and policies alike have set out to carve a niche for his Liberal Democrat party while Sunak and Starmer duel, Farage returns and Labour moves back to the centre ground.

The Lib Dems’ rise to around 12 percent in polls and their strong presence in southern England could win them up to 67 seats, according to one YouGov poll, up from 11 in 2019. 

Such a victory would be comparable to the party’s breakthrough in 2010, when it governed with the Conservatives, and would give strength to its pro-European and climate-centred policies.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer take part in the BBC’s Prime Ministerial Debate, in Nottingham, England, on June 26, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

In a final and noisy pre-election debate on Wednesday night, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and opposition Labour Party Leader, Keir Starmer, argued loudly with each other on the cost of living, taxes and welfare, immigration and gender.

The Prime Minister, in danger of losing his Richmond (Yorkshire) seat, repeatedly warned voters over the 75-minute debate not to “surrender” to Labour on various fronts.

Mr. Sunak’s Conservative Party has been in power for 14 years, and has lagged behind Labour in opinion polls by around 20 points. Following the pandemic, Britons have seen four conservative Prime Ministers, crumbling public services (such as the National Health Service) and a cost of living crisis.

ALSO READ | Snap poll: On the surprise election announcement for the U.K.

The U.K.’s tax burden had hit record levels under the Sunak government. The independent Institute of Fiscal Studies warned earlier in the week that neither party was being upfront about the trade-offs that would have to be made between taxes and public services, which are already in disarray.

Mr. Sunak spoke over his opponent at length during the tax segment, accusing Mr. Starmer of planning a tax on pensions. “It is in their DNA. Mark my words. Your pension, your council tax your home, your car, you name it, they will tax it,” Mr. Sunak said.

On immigration, Mr. Starmer attacked the Prime Minister for the impracticality of the government’s plan to deport migrants with failed asylum claims to Rwanda. Mr Sunak argued that opposition leader did not have a plan and that it would be infeasible to return undocumented migrants to countries like Iran and Afghanistan.

The debate also went into some of Britain’s culture wars. The candidates were asked if they would protect women-only spaces. They both agreed on the equivalence of “sex” and “biological sex” but differed on the legal instruments required to achieve women-only spaces. Mr. Starmer accused the Tories of splitting people on a number of issues , as he cautioned people against transphobia.

Both candidates attempted to sidestep questions on mending Britain’s trading relationship with the European Union (EU). Pressed on the issue, Mr. Starmer said he would get a better deal with the EU including in research and development, as he pushed back against Mr. Sunak’s accusation that a better deal came with the free movement of EU citizens across the U.K. border.

Although Mr. Sunak trails Mr. Starmer in polls, Mr. Starmer also has low popularity.

During Wednesday’s debate, both candidates accused the other of making empty promises.

“Are you two really the best we’ve got to be the next prime minister of our great country?” a senior citizen in the audience, Robert Blackstock, asked.

“I get the frustrations, but think about the choice, allow me to finish the job I’ve started,” Mr. Sunak said as he suggested he would protect pensions from tax, “secure” borders, and have lower taxes that Labour.

“People feel like hope’s been beaten out of them,” Mr. Starmer said, arguing that Britons felt worse off now than they were 14 years ago when the Conservatives came to power.

He talked about his “working class” background and bringing a sense of service to politics.

Following the debate, Mr. Blackstock said he was disappointed with the answers both candidates had provided.

“From my perspective, we want a personality. We want somebody that we can recognise. We want somebody on the world stage, that is going to project our Great Britain. That’s what we want,” he said.

British opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer looks on as he visits Morrisons supermarket during a Labour general election campaign event in Wiltshire, Britain, June 19, 2024
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Two polls have found the UK’s Labour party was set to win a record-breaking number of seats and the incumbent Conservatives due for a historic drubbing in July’s general election.

With voters heading to the polls in just over two weeks time, the latest pair of nationwide surveys — by YouGov and Savanta/Electoral Calculus — showed Labour set to win either 425 or 516 out of 650 seats.

Either of the results would be the current opposition party’s best-ever return of MPs in a general election.

ALSO READ | Snap poll: On the surprise election announcement for the U.K.

Meanwhile, the twin polls showed support for the Tories — in power since 2010 — plummeting to unprecedented lows, with one estimating they would win just 53 seats.

The Savanta and Electoral Calculus survey for the Daily Telegraph newspaper predicted Rishi Sunak would become the first sitting U.K. prime minister ever to lose their seat at a general election.

The poll, which forecasts three-quarters of Mr. Sunak’s cabinet also losing their seats, would hand Labour a majority of 382 — more than double the advantage enjoyed by ex-prime minister Tony Blair in 1997.

It also showed the centrist Liberal Democrats just three seats behind the Conservatives on 50, and the Scottish National Party losing dozens of seats north of the English border.

Record Tory defeat?

The YouGov survey predicted Mr. Sunak’s party would win in just 108 constituencies.

That was a drop of 32 on its prediction from two weeks ago, reflecting how badly the Conservatives’ election campaign is perceived to have gone.

The 108 seats the Tories are predicted to win in the poll would still be their lowest number in the party’s near 200-year history of contesting U.K. elections.

Mr. Sunak is widely seen as having run a lacklustre and error-strewn campaign, including facing near-universal criticism earlier this month for leaving early from D-Day commemoration events in France.

In contrast, Labour leader Keir Starmer, set to become prime minister if his party prevails on July 4, has sought to play it safe and protect his party’s poll leads.

YouGov also found anti-EU populist Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party on course to win five seats, including in the Clacton constituency in eastern England where the Brexit figurehead is standing.

Mr. Farage has said he will attempt to co-opt what remains of the Conservative party if he is elected and it fares poorly on July 4.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, recently revealed what he has in common with his wife Akshata Murty. Mr Sunak jointly shared a post with his wife alongside two happy photos of them. He further revealed the six things that they have in common.

“People always ask us – ‘What is the thing you have most in common?'” he said in his post on Instagram. “It’s not just our shared love of watching Friends reruns and eating Spanish food,” Mr Sunak continued.

The UK PM said that they share a common belief and value system. “It’s the values that we share. We share the belief that hard work should decide where you go in life. We share the belief that it takes bold action to make a difference,” he wrote in the caption of the post.

Concluding the post, Mr Sunak said, “We share the belief that our children will inherit a better world than the one we share today.”

A few days ago, Akshata Murty posted a message of support for her husband 4 ahead of the July 4 general elections. She shared a post on Instagram with two photos of her husband and the message, “I’m with you, every step of the way.” Ms Murty’s message for her husband struck a chord with social media users, who offered their support to him 

This election comes at a time when Sunak’s Tories are struggling to retain power after 14 largely chaotic years in charge. Sunak is the party’s fifth prime minister since it ousted Labour in 2010 and was selected by Tory MPs in October 2022 after Liz Truss’s disastrous 49-day tenure.

Many outlets in the UK were virtually unanimous in describing his decision to hold a vote six months before he had to as a “gamble”. But Sunak attended several radio and television interviews on Thursday during campaigning and insisted insist he was right to call the vote.