As election season takes off in India, allegations by PM Modi and EAM Jaishankar of foreign interference from the West heat up the campaign – we will look at the history of such allegations worldwide, and whether theres basis for New Delhi’s present concerns.

Hello and Welcome to WorldView- as Elections get under way in India, diplomatic activity may be on the decline- but undiplomatic activity is in the spotlight- as the PM and EAM accuse global powers and western media of running interference in Indian elections

What really is of concern to New Delhi?

1. Reactions in US, Germany and even the UN, that spoke about the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, and then perhaps for the first time, spoke of the need for “free and fair elections” in India

2. The release of Human Rights reports, especially during election season by the US and EU parliament.

Pg 8 of EU Parliament Resolution on India Human Rights concerns referred to divisive speeches by leaders

In the US, Secretary of State Antony Blinken released a report this week that said there are significant human rights abuses- spoke of lynchings, Manipur violence and several other issues in India

The MEA response was tough:

“This report, as per our understanding, is deeply biased and reflects a very poor understanding of India. We attach no value to it and urge you also to do the same.”

Then, there’s the worry that embassies and diplomats are interfering in India’s internal politics- there have long been allegations by this government on Pakistan, including in Gujarat elections in the past, more recently the government accused Canadian officials based in India of interfering in India’s internal affairs, and then ordered the High Commission to downsize numbers. This was in the context of the allegations over the assassination Nijjar and of the plot against Pannun in the US, that the government’s high-level panel continues to investigate.

Finally, there is the barrage of criticism of Indian elections and democracy in the Western media that has upset the government- despite PM Modi giving interviews to foreign publications like the Financial Times and Newsweek, here’s a list compiled by former CEO of Prasar Bharati

In Ireland, India’s Ambassador came in for criticism for over-stretching his mandate with a response to the Irish Times, where he defended the current government but also criticised previous Indian governments leading to calls for his sacking from the opposition

The Indian worries over foreign interference have yet to be proven, but globally there are many such fears- especially as more than 60 countries around the world go to polls this year. according to an Oxford University Study: Industrialized Disinformation 2020 Global Inventory of Organized Social Media Manipulation, at least 81 countries’s governments attempt cyber manipulation for propaganda and disinformation. Historically it was the US and Russia that were accused of manipulating one in 9 countries’ elections during the Cold War

1. This week U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday signed a bill that forces Tik Tok owner Byte dance to sell the company in the next year or face being banned, as the US Congress believes it is used by China’s ruling communist party to influence elections in the US and spy on Americans, a charge the company denies.

2. In 2018, the US Senate released a report that concluded Russia’s spy agencies used Facebook ads to manipulate US voters in the election Donald Trump won in 2016. 

3. Canada just completed an investigation on foreign interference during previous elections, which its NSA said countries including Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan and even India may have tried to manipulate. Eventually, however, its report did not find conclusive evidence against India, but did against China. UK conducted a similar enquiry last year

4. This month Microsoft said in a report that Microsoft has issued a warning that Chinese state backed cyber troops will attempt to disrupt elections in the US, South Korea and India this year using artificial intelligence-generated content, and with support from North Korean groups following a trial run during the presidential election in Taiwan- however, Taiwan elected an anti-China president

.5. In India’s neighbourhood, India is often accused, especially in Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka of leaning in favour of one party or another, to oust anti-India leaders. While these have yet to be proven, the allegations have been made by senior regional leaders like Rajapaksa, Yameen, Khaleda Zia.

6. The European Union too has released a report on its fears over manipulation during upcoming EU parliament elections in June, called Combating foreign interference in elections

7. Of course the major allegations historically made are against the two cold war powers- US and Russia- The US for elections in South America, in what were then called Banana Republics, and Russia in Europe, including famously helping a West German leader survive a confidence vote in 1972.

What does Indian diplomacy need to do:

1. It is necessary to do researched studies rather than make allegations of a foreign hand without substantiating them with proof- this speaks to the country’s diplomatic credibility

2. In the age of AI and Deepfakes, it is important to improve India’s technology security capabilities, and techonology diplomacy to share best practices

3. Counter external influences by building consumer and cyber voter awareness – and share concerns with other democracies

WorldView Take: The best response to interference and criticism is to walk the talk on democracy, and on building democratic practices into India’s diplomatic culture as well. Since independence, India has been seen as a country that is democratic pluralistic and rule-abiding- which is why many speak of “shared values” with India. Over sensitivity to criticism, invoking an imaginary foreign hand, or expressing loyalty to a government not the State or nation are not exemplars of democratic diplomatic culture, however.

Reading Recommendations:

1. Rigged: America, Russia, and One Hundred Years of Covert Electoral Interference by David Shimer

2. Meddling in the Ballot Box and

When the Great Power Gets a Vote: The Effects of Great Power Electoral Interventions on Election Results by Dov H. Levin

3. Rules and Allies: Foreign Election Interventions Kindle Edition by Johannes Bubeck Nikolay Marinov – looking at 300 elections in 100 countries

4. How to Stand Up to a Dictator by Maria Ressa

5. The Digital Divide in Democracy: How Tech Shapes (and Warps) Elections by Sebastian Whitman

6. Deep Disinformation: Can AI-Generated Fake News Swing an Election? by Ashley Parker Owens

7. Foreign Electoral Interference Normative Implications in Light of International Law, Human Rights, and Democratic Theory- Nils Reimann

8. Election Interference: International Law and the Future of Democracy by Jens David Ohlin

Script and Presentation: Suhasini Haidar

Production: Gayatri Menon and Shibu Narayan

The U.S. Congress overwhelmingly passed a $1.2 trillion budget bill on March 23, keeping the government funded through a fiscal year that began six months ago and sending it to President Joe Biden to sign into law and avert a partial shutdown. The vote on passage was 74-24.

Key federal agencies including the departments of Homeland Security, Justice, State and Treasury, which houses the Internal Revenue Service, will remain funded through Sept. 30 after the bill was passed in the Democratic-majority Senate.

But the measure did not include funding for mostly military aid to Ukraine, Taiwan or Israel, which are included in a different Senate-passed bill that the Republican-led House of Representatives has ignored.

Senate leaders spent hours on March 23 negotiating numerous amendments to the budget bill that ultimately were defeated. The delay pushed passage beyond a Friday midnight deadline.

But the White House Office of Management and Budget issued a statement saying agencies would not be ordered to shut, expressing confidence that the Senate would promptly pass the bill, which it did.

Partisan divisions on display, again

While Congress got the job done, deep partisan divides were on display again, as well as bitter disagreement within the House’s narrow and fractious Republican majority. Conservative firebrand Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene threatened to force a vote to remove Speaker Mike Johnson, a fellow Republican, for allowing the measure to pass.

The 1,012-page bill provides $886 billion in funding for the Defence Department, including a raise for U.S. troops. Mr. Biden, a Democrat, has indicated he will sign it.

Mr. Johnson, as he has done more than 60 times since succeeding his ousted predecessor Kevin McCarthy in October, relied on a parliamentary manoeuvre to bypass hardliners within his own party on March 22, allowing the measure to pass by a 286-134 vote that had substantially more Democratic support than Republican.

For most of the past six months, the government was funded with four short-term stopgap measures, a sign of the repeated brinkmanship that rating agencies have warned could hurt the creditworthiness of a federal government that has nearly $34.6 trillion in debt.

Also read: Unnecessary brinkmanship: On the U.S.’s fiscal quagmire

“This legislation is truly a national security bill — 70% of the funding in this package is for our national defence, including investments that strengthen our military readiness and industrial base, provide pay and benefit increases for our brave servicemembers and support our closest allies,” said Republican Senator Susan Collins, one of the main negotiators.

Opponents cast the bill as too expensive. “It’s reckless. It leads to inflation. It’s a direct vote to steal your paycheck,” said Senator Rand Paul, part of a band of Republicans who generally oppose most spending bills.

The last partial federal government shutdown occurred during Donald Trump’s presidency, from Dec. 22, 2018 until Jan. 25, 2019. The record-long interruption in government services came as the Republican insisted on money to build a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico and was unable to broker a deal with Democrats.

Trouble for Speaker Johnson?

The new budget bill passed the House with 185 Democratic and 101 Republican votes, which led Ms. Greene, a hardline conservative, to introduce her measure to oust Mr. Johnson.

Also read: Mike Johnson | The man with the gavel

That move had echoes of October when a small band of hardliners engineered a vote that removed Mr. McCarthy for relying on Democrats to pass a stopgap measure to avert another partial government shutdown.

They had been angry at Md. McCarthy since June, when he agreed with Mr. Biden on the outlines of the fiscal 2024 spending that were passed on March 22.

Mr. McCarthy’s ouster brought the House to a halt for three weeks as Republicans struggled to agree on a new leader, an experience many in the party said they did not want to repeat as the November election draws nearer.

Ms. Greene said she would not push for an immediate vote on her move to force Mr. Johnson out. “I filed a motion to vacate today. But it’s more of a warning than a pink slip,” the Georgia Republican told reporters.

Indeed, some Democrats said that they would vote to keep Mr. Johnson, if he were to call a vote on a $95 billion security assistance package already approved by the Senate for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

That measure is unlikely to come up anytime soon, as lawmakers will now leave Washington for a two-week break.

Pockets of Republican opposition to more funding for Ukraine have led to fears that Russia could seriously erode Kyiv’s ability to continue defending itself.

Life is unlikely to become easier for Mr. Johnson anytime soon, with the looming departure of two members of his caucus – Ken Buck and Mike Gallagher – set to reduce his majority to a mere 217-213 in a month’s time. At that point, he could afford to lose only one vote from his party on any measure that Democrats unite to oppose.

On August 3, India imposed import restrictions on a host of IT hardware products such as laptops, personal computers (including tablet computers), micro computers, large or mainframe computers, and certain data processing machines with a view to boost domestic manufacturing and cut imports from countries like China.
| Photo Credit: Elise Amendola

The U.S., China, Korea and Chinese Taipei have raised concerns on India’s decision to impose import restrictions on laptops, and computers, in a meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO), an official said.

The concern was flagged in the meeting of WTO’s Committee on Market Access. It was chaired by Renata Crisaldo of Paraguay on Monday, in Geneva.

The U.S. said that the decision will have an impact on trade of these products, including U.S. exports to India, once they are implemented, the Geneva-based official said.

The U.S. also said the decision was creating uncertainty for exporters and downstream users.

On August 3, India imposed import restrictions on a host of IT hardware products such as laptops, personal computers (including tablet computers), micro computers, large or mainframe computers, and certain data processing machines with a view to boost domestic manufacturing and cut imports from countries like China.

The regime would take effect November 1.

However, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal last week said India would not impose licensing requirement on imports but will only monitor their inbound shipments.

The official said that Korea stressed that the proposed measures by India seem inconsistent with WTO rules and could consequently create unnecessary trade barriers.

Seoul requested India to reconsider the implementation of these measures and provide detailed clarifications and information on this issue, including the timeline of its implementation.

The country has imported personal computers, including laptops, worth $5.33 billion in 2022-23, as against $7.37 billion in 2021-22.