As tropical storm Bebinca barrels towards waters off northern Taiwan gathering strength into a possible typhoon, weather forecasters in Taipei are using a new and so far successful method to help track its path – artificial intelligence (AI).

AI-generated forecasts, some powered by software from tech giants including Nvidia, whose chips are made by Taiwan’s homegrown semiconductor champion TSMC, have so far outperformed traditional methods in predicting typhoon tracks.

In July, it was AI-based weather models, used for the first time, that helped Taiwan better predict the path and impact of Typhoon Gaemi, the strongest to strike the island in eight years that brought record-breaking rainfall.

The new technology impressed Taiwan forecasters by predicting a direct hit as early as eight days before Gaemi made landfall – handily outperforming conventional methods, which remain the mainstay of prediction planning.

“People are starting to realise AI indeed delivered some stunning performances compared to conventional models,” said Chia Hsin-sing, director at the weather service provider Taiwan Integrated Disaster Prevention of Technology Engineering Consulting Company Ltd.

Bebinca is now being tracked using the same AI tools by people including Lin Ping-yu, a forecaster at Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration (CWA), who said AI has given them a higher degree of confidence there will not be a direct hit.

“This (AI) is a good thing for us. It is like having one more useful tool to use,” said Lin.

The AI weather programmes on offer include Nvidia’s FourCastNet, Google’s GraphCast and Huawei’s Pangu-Weather, as well as a deep learning-based system by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

“It is a hotly watched competition. We will know soon who is winning,” said Chia.

Such AI models have also begun to be used to predict storms and hurricanes in other regions with good accuracy, according to forecasters and academics.

The AI-based software is trained using historical weather data to learn the cause and effect relationships of meteorological systems and can predict hundreds of weather variables days in advance – a process that requires only a few minutes to complete.

For all the typhoons in the Western Pacific this year up until mid-September, AI’s accuracy in predicting storm tracks over a three-day window was nearly 20% higher than that of conventional models, according to data compiled by the CWA.

Ahead of Gaemi, AI helped the administration foresee an unusual loop in its path that prolonged its impact on Taiwan and prompted them to swiftly issue a rare warning for rainfall of 1.8 metres (5.9 feet), which was later proven accurate, according to CWA’s deputy head Lu Kuo-Chen.

“(AI) boosted the confidence for forecasters to make that prediction,” Lu said, adding the early warning gave extra time for authorities to carry out preparations.

Lu is also pinning hopes on a partnership with Nvidia, which this year announced a generative AI tool called CorrDiff that aims to forecast more precise locations of typhoon landfall and provide higher resolution images inside a storm.

“We are seeing the potential,” Lu said.

For now, however, experts say the AI tools were not able to deliver quality forecasts for more detailed impact of a typhoon, such as its strength and winds, and more time is needed for the new technology to solidify its lead over more traditional ways.

“Was it just good luck?” said Chia, pointing to AI’s stellar performance on Gaemi. “We need to give AI a bit more time. It is something to look forward to.”

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

Taipei:

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the main producer of advanced chips used in artificial intelligence applications, is expected to report a 30% rise in second-quarter profit on Thursday thanks to soaring demand.
The world’s largest contract chipmaker, whose customers include Apple and Nvidia, has benefited from a surge towards AI that has pushed TSMC’s stock – and the broader Taiwan market – to record highs. Last week, its American Depositary Receipts topped a trillion-dollar market value.

TSMC is set to report a net profit of 236.1 billion Taiwan dollar (7.25 billion USD) for the quarter ended June 30, according to a LSEG SmartEstimate drawn from 20 analysts. SmartEstimates give greater weighting to forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate.

That estimate compares to the 2023 second-quarter net profit of 181.8 billion Taiwan dollar.

TSMC last week reported a jump in second-quarter revenue, comfortably beating market expectations.

“I expect the third quarter outlook for all of their products to be very good,” said President Capital Management Co Chairman Li Fang-kuo.

TSMC, at its quarterly earnings call at 0600 GMT on Thursday, will update its outlook for the current quarter as well as for the full year, including its capital expenditure as it races to expand production.

TSMC is spending billions building new factories overseas, including $65 billion on three plants in the U.S. state of Arizona, though it says most manufacturing will remain in Taiwan.

On its last earnings call in April, TSMC maintained its guidance for capital spending this year at $28 billion to $32 billion, compared with last year’s $30.45 billion, and said 70% to 80% of that would go towards advanced technologies.

“TSMC could raise their capital spending,” said KGI Securities Investment Advisory Co Chairman Chu Yen-min. “There are many positive factors which will help their stock price and support the broader market.”

The AI boom has helped drive up the price of shares in Asia’s most valuable company, with TSMC’s Taipei-listed stock leaping 75% so far this year to historic highs, compared with a 33% gain for the broader market.

TSMC, colloquially referred to the “sacred mountain protecting the country” for its critical role in Taiwan’s export-dependent economy, faces little competition, though both Intel and Samsung are trying to challenge that dominance.

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)