U.S. President Donald Trump said he was postponing a planned attack on Iran scheduled for Tuesday (May 19, 2026) at the request of Gulf leaders amid “serious negotiations” with Tehran.

Mr. Trump’s sudden announcement on social media on Monday (May 18, 2026) came after Iran said it had responded to a new US proposal aimed at ending the war.

Mr. Trump said he would “hold off on our planned Military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was scheduled for tomorrow,” in a message on his Truth Social network.

The U.S. President said he had been asked to do so by the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as “serious negotiations are now taking place.”

The Gulf allies believe “a Deal will be made” that includes “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN!” added Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump said he had informed the U.S. military “that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow.”

But he said he had “further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached.”

Mr. Trump had given Iran a series of increasingly ominous warnings in the days since his return from a trip to China to meet President Xi Jinping.

Late Sunday (May 17, 2026) he said the “clock is ticking” and threatened that “there won’t be anything left” of Iran if no peace deal is reached.

The United States and Israel have been locked in a war with Iran since U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes in late February.

Mr. Trump has struggled to break an impasse in negotiations and end the conflict, which has shaken the West Asia and sent energy prices climbing.

The two sides have held only a single round of talks in Pakistan despite a fragile ceasefire in April.

On Sunday (May 17, 2026), Iran’s Fars news agency said Washington had presented a five-point list, which included a demand for Iran to keep only one nuclear site in operation and transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to the United States.

Fars said that the Iranian proposal had emphasized that Tehran would continue to manage the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy conduit which Iran has largely kept closed since the start of the war.

On Monday (May 18, 2026), the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), a new body Iran has set up to manage the Hormuz Strait, said it would provide “real-time updates” on X of operations and developments in the waterway.

Mr. Trump says Iran must open up the strait as part of any deal.

With Iran targeting U.S. bases in other countries in the West Asian region, the U.S.-Israel attack has created a massive ripple effect extending well beyond the region, threatening global energy security.

Following a drone attack from Iran on Monday, Qatar halted the production of liquefied natural gas at the world’s largest export facility. The suspension of operations across refineries in other Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq have also been announced. Oil and gas prices have surged following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a gateway to 20% of the world’s oil exports from the Gulf.

As shown in the chart below, oil prices soared to $78.31 on Monday, almost 12% higher than a week ago. Prices were slowly inching up last week even as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran were ongoing, largely due to the military build-up by the U.S. in the region.

According to the Iranian Red Crescent, the U.S.-Israeli attacks, dubbed Operation Epic Fury by the U.S.’s Pentagon, have killed more than 780 people in Iran as of March 2, hitting more than 500 locations since February 28. In retaliation, Iran fired missiles at Israel and nations across the region, particularly targeting U.S. bases in Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, pushing what was claimed to be a “pre-emptive strike” by the U.S. and Israel into an all-out regional war.

This region accounts for 31% of the global oil production in 2024, and includes five of the top 10 oil-producing countries — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait. West Asia accounted for 38% of global oil exports in 2024.

Moreover, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which is a narrow channel connecting major oil-producing nations with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Ships transporting oil have been effectively halted through threats, mine-laying, and direct attacks by Iran’s military, creating a chokepoint.

As shown in the chart below, several nations, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq, transport about 14 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products through the Strait per day.

According to energy consulting firm Kpler, the Strait represents 31% of all seaborne crude flows.

Impact on China, India.

The closure could stall supply to countries like China and India that import millions of barrels daily via the Strait. China received 5.4 million barrels of crude oil per day via the Strait in FY25Q1, the highest in volume. India followed at 2.1 million barrels per day.

Iran, which exported more than 97% of its oil to China in 2024, was a major source of cheap crude for Beijing, a dependence precipitated by longstanding U.S.-led sanctions.

Notably, the Strait’s closure comes months after the disruption of China’s supplies from Venezuela, another key source of discounted crude, following the U.S.’s invasion and naval blockade of the Latin American nation.

With two of its major sources of cheap oil now effectively cut off, China faces mounting pressure on its energy security. About 56% of China’s oil imports came from West Asian countries in 2024. However, China has sought to mitigate this dependence by storing Iranian oil in tankers and onshore inventories. 

Kpler estimates China has about 1.2 billion barrels in onshore commercial and strategic inventories as of Monday, with levels surging 30% since 2020. In India’s case, the Ministry of Petroleum has said that the country has sufficient crude oil stocks to last up to 25 days. The Strait’s closure can have detrimental effects if it persists.