Trade – Artifex.News https://artifex.news Stay Connected. Stay Informed. Thu, 22 Oct 2026 14:49:00 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.1.3 https://artifex.news/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/cropped-cropped-app-logo-32x32.png Trade – Artifex.News https://artifex.news 32 32 Festival season to boost textile sales; Chinese imports remain a concern https://artifex.news/article71604697-ece/ Thu, 22 Oct 2026 14:49:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71604697-ece/ Read More “Festival season to boost textile sales; Chinese imports remain a concern” »

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The apparel industry has entered the festive season on a positive note, with 52% of the Cloth Manufacturers Association of India (CMAI) members expecting higher sales than last year. However, there are also concerns among the apparel manufacturers in Tiruppur about rising garment imports from China.

According to a recent survey done by the CMAI among its members, numbering close to 7,000 and including major retailers and brands, close to 30% of the respondents expect the sales this year to match last year’s performance. Just less than 20% expect a decline.

Former president and chief mentor of the CMAI Rahul Mehta told The Hindu that in a prelude to the Deepavali season, the eastern States did well for dussehra sales. However, sales in the southern districts for the Navarathri festival was slow and it was sluggish in the north and west. “Despite the textile inflation of 5% to 7%, we think the festival season this year will be better than last year. Raw material prices have started coming down and the global geo political situation is not as bad as it was a few months ago. The sales are expected to pick up across the country closer to Deepavali,” he said.

The CMAI said in a statement that strong order bookings by retailers at the CMAI’s National Garment Fairs (NGFs) have further reinforced the industry confidence. While rising raw-material costs remain a concern among the retailers, around 54 % of the respondents said they were absorbing the costs by reducing margins and only about 35 % have increased the prices. “This indicates that higher festive sales could come with continued pressure on profitability,” the CMAI said.

Indian wear is expected to lead the festive-season growth followed by western casual wear. Online apparel sales are also expected to gain momentum this year.

Meanwhile, according to R. Dhamodharan, secretary of the South India Hosiery Manufacturers Association, “Import of cotton readymade garments from China during April-August this year was worth ₹508.64 crore as against ₹283.65 crore for the same period last year. Several traders are placing orders in China and importing garments now.”

Further, distributors and consumers may not absorb price increase now. “So, the manufacturers (in Tiruppur) are looking at revising the prices after the festival,” he said.



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Garment exports have the potential to grow 25% next year: ITF https://artifex.news/article71604867-ece/ Tue, 20 Oct 2026 14:01:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71604867-ece/ Read More “Garment exports have the potential to grow 25% next year: ITF” »

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Indian garment exports have the potential for a 25% increase next year and will better performance in the three major markets – USA, UK, and the European Union.

Prabhu Dhamodharan, convenor of the Indian Texpreneurs Federation (ITF), said in a press release that garment exporters are exploring new opportunities under the India–UK trade agreement, including setting up offices and design studios in London. Encouraging buyer responses will translate into higher orders from January. With regard to the European Union, implementation of the India–EU trade agreement next financial year will drive double-digit apparel export growth.

In the American market, with tariff concerns easing, India has an opportunity to regain the recently lost 2% market share within the coming quarter. A limited India–U.S. trade agreement, if finalised, will eventually help raise India’s traditional market share from 6% to 8%.

“With greater stability expected across these three major markets, we anticipate India’s monthly apparel exports rising from $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion in 2027 — a 25% increase. Indian exporters are simultaneously strengthening global competitiveness through technology, automation, and productivity improvements, positioning the industry for renewed export growth,” he said.

Total purchase of readymade garments by the U.S. declined 7.42% to $ 49.1 billion during January–August 2026. However, August recorded marginal growth of 0.46%, indicating early signs of market recovery. India’s apparel exports to the U.S. fell sharply by 26.4% to $ 2.7 billion, compared with 29.4% decline for China, 4.4% for Bangladesh and 0.8% for Vietnam. However, Cambodia grew 6.9% and Indonesia 2.6%, reflecting intense competition.

India’s traditional 6% U.S. market share dropped to 4% in August. Uncertainty over additional U.S. tariffs linked to Russian oil purchases had delayed orders from American buyers. Despite relatively stable volumes in other markets, India’s overall apparel exports declined around 7% during the first half of the current financial year. The recent indication that additional Russia-related tariffs will not be imposed for now has improved confidence among Indian exporters, he added.



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Texprocil to focus on Kasturi Cotton, benefits of FTAs for textile sector https://artifex.news/article71561071-ece/ Thu, 08 Oct 2026 17:43:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71561071-ece/ Read More “Texprocil to focus on Kasturi Cotton, benefits of FTAs for textile sector” »

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The Cotton Textile Export Promotion Council (Texprocil) will focus on increasing the quantity of cotton that can be branded as ‘Kasturi Cotton Bharat’ over the next two years, said Ravi Sam, the newly elected chairman of Texprocil.

Less than 50% of the cotton that is brought for branding meets the mandatory specifications and tests to be branded as Kasturi Cotton. This has to improve. Retail brands in other countries should also recognise the quality of Kasturi Cotton and encourage its use as it comes with traceability, he added.

Further, Kasturi branding starts from ginning units. There should be measures to ensure that farmers benefit from Kasturi cotton as they play a major role in reducing trash content and improving the fibre quality of cotton. They should get the premium that the ginners and other players in the textile value chain get from Kasturi cotton.

The government should ensure that availability of spurious cotton seeds in the market is controlled and the number of approved seeds is reduced to so that farmers know what to sow, Mr. Ravi Sam said.

On the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), he said Indian garment exporters had limited access in the U.K. and European markets for almost two decades due to duties that were levied on Indian goods. With India signing FTAs, the industry should make use of the benefits. The Confederation of Indian Industry- Southern Region has begun conducting hand holding sessions for exporters on the FTAs. This will be another area of focus for the Texprocil, he added.



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India to study potential of new markets for tea exports https://artifex.news/article71500539-ece/ Wed, 23 Sep 2026 20:11:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71500539-ece/ Read More “India to study potential of new markets for tea exports” »

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India is encouraging tea exports to explore new markets as shipments to Iran is hit by the war.

Amit Kumar, Joint Secretary of the Union Ministry of Commerce and Industry, told The Hindu on Wednesday that the government is focusing on markets such as Oman that is increasing its purchase of Indian tea. “We are analysing the data. There is substantial increase in export of tea to Oman (from India).”

When asked about the increase in import of tea and the concerns raised by the planters in this regard, he said the focus is on increasing exports to diverse markets and creating new markets for the exporters.

According to data shared by the United Planters Association of Southern India, India exported 153.24 million kg of tea between January and July last year and it declined 16.11 % to 128.56 million kg between January and June this year. India imported 15.1 million kg of tea between January and June 2026 as against 10 million kg during the same period last year.

Ajoy Thipaiah, outgoing president of UPASI, said at its annual meeting at Coonoor on Wednesday, “This renewed inflow of imported tea is a matter of concern for the domestic industry and calls for appropriate remedial measures to safeguard the interests of Indian tea producers.”



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Rubber Board to launch digital platform for rubber planters https://artifex.news/article71500946-ece/ Wed, 23 Sep 2026 15:51:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71500946-ece/ Read More “Rubber Board to launch digital platform for rubber planters” »

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The Rubber Board will launch a digital platform called ‘INR Konnect’ on a pilot scale soon to document all details of untapped rubber plantations.

Executive Director of the Board M. Vasanthagesan said at the annual conference of the United Planters Association of Southern India in Coonoor on Wednesday (September 23) that growers have plantations in which the rubber is not tapped regularly for multiple reasons.

The adopting agencies should know details about such plantations, and the plantation owners need to know the credible agencies that they can approach for tapping. “The platform has the potential to increase production by 20%,” he told The Hindu. The pilot stage of the project is likely to be rolled out in a month.

Further, with increase in rubber imports, the Rubber Board has taken up with the Bureau of Indian Standards the need to come up with standards for compounded rubber. “There is no monitoring mechanism now for rubber imports. We need standards first to monitor the imports,” he said.



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Textile mills, garment units seek measures to improve cotton availability https://artifex.news/article71443992-ece/ Tue, 08 Sep 2026 16:00:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71443992-ece/ Read More “Textile mills, garment units seek measures to improve cotton availability” »

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With cotton and yarn prices continuing to fluctuate, textile mills and garment units in Tamil Nadu are seeking measures to improve cotton productivity and availability.

Spurt in demand for cotton yarn globally is among the main reasons for volatility in its prices, said Ashwin Chandran, chairman of the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry.

International demand for yarn is better than the last couple of years. Demand for cotton yarn was muted since 2023-24. Demand for textile products across the value chain started picking up last December. Most of the textile units maintained hand-to-mouth stocks for the last years because of the low demand.

Demand for yarn from China and Bangladesh saw an increase and domestic demand for garments is also seeing growth. This has led to better market for yarn. Further, hosiery yarn exports are mainly by the mills in Gujarat and not much from those in Tamil Nadu.

However, the cotton futures market went up to 92 cents for a pound and has corrected now to about 86 cents. Thus, the prices of cotton, the basic raw material, saw prices fluctuating. While the landed prices of clean cotton has seen ₹70 increase, yarn prices have increased by about ₹95 a kg in the last one year, he said.

The focus of the entire industry should be on improving cotton productivity in the country for raw material security, he added.

Meanwhile, the Tiruppur Exporters and Manufacturers Association has urged the Central and State governments to ban cotton exports. It said the State, especially the western districts, design and manufactures a wide range of textile products and supply to both, domestic and international markets.

This industry, predominantly driven by small and medium-sized enterprises, provides employment and livelihoods to thousands of people. However, since January this year, certain large spinning mills and traders “have been artificially restricting the supply of cotton, causing yarn prices to skyrocket and creating an unprecedented crisis for local manufacturing units—particularly the small and medium-sized ones,” alleged the Association.

Last year, cotton requirement was 350 lakh bales, whereas current domestic production stands at 290 lakh bales. With the existing cotton shortage, the government removed the import duty (11%) on cotton and 62 lakh bales of cotton were imported. Yet, cotton prices continue to rise.

This is due to artificial market manipulation, the Association claimed. The continuous rise in cotton prices have increased raw material costs, causing garment orders to be diverted to other States and countries, it said.



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Union government sets $21 billion textile export target for Tamil Nadu by 2030 https://artifex.news/article71158286-ecerand29/ Sun, 28 Jun 2026 15:14:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article71158286-ecerand29/ Read More “Union government sets $21 billion textile export target for Tamil Nadu by 2030” »

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Union Textile Minister Giriraj Singh (right) interacted with garment exporters in Tiruppur on Sunday.
| Photo Credit: SIVA SARAVANAN S.

The Union government has set a target of $21 billion worth textile and apparel exports from Tamil Nadu by 2030, said T.N. Venkatesh, Principal Secretary, Department of Handlooms, Textiles, Khadi, and Handicrafts, Tamil Nadu, in Tiruppur on Sunday (June 28, 2026).

India is expected to achieve $100 billion export of textiles and apparel by 2030 and Tamil Nadu’s contribution will be one-fifth, and Tiruppur cluster alone would contribute nearly $11.5 billion. “This will be easy to achieve with the investments in research and development and free trade agreements,” he said.

One of the main demands of the Tiruppur garment industry was hostels for the women workers. The Tamil Nadu government has allocated ₹1,250 crore to construct “Thozhi hostels” in industrial clusters, and hostels for women workers in Tiruppur will be constructed under this scheme. A Centre of Excellence for athleisure (athletic wear) will also be set up in Tiruppur, Mr. Venkatesh said.

Union Textile Minister Giriraj Singh told the garment exporters at the meeting organised by the Tiruppur Exporters Association that annual exports of textiles and apparel hit the $44 billion mark only once since 1998. It is now at $38 billion and the target is $100 billion by 2030.

India has a free trade agreement with Japan. But, its exports to Japan are not much. Garment exporters need to diversify at least 20% of their exports to new markets, he said.



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Textile, apparel export see sharp decline in October; government rescinds QCO on viscose fibres https://artifex.news/article70295928-ece/ Tue, 18 Nov 2025 16:06:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article70295928-ece/ Read More “Textile, apparel export see sharp decline in October; government rescinds QCO on viscose fibres” »

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With the U.S. tariffs hitting hard, apparel and textile exports saw a 12.91% slump in October compared with last October.

While textile shipments last month were worth $1,597 million, apparel exports were $1,069.42 million, as against $1,833 million (textiles) and $1,227 million (apparel) in October 2024.

Exports of jute and carpets dropped 27.27% and 15.8% respectively, and cotton yarn, fabrics, and made-ups went down 13.31%.

“Many buyers in the U.S. who were placing orders with us regularly are still doing so. But, we are supplying at heavy discounts,” said A. Sakthivel, vice chairman of the Apparel Export Promotion Council (AEPC).

The garment exporters got the spring season orders. But the summer orders are slow. Things may improve with a bilateral trade agreement expected soon and the support measures announced by the Indian government, said Mithileshwar Thankur, secretary general of the AEPC.

The Cotton Textiles Export Promotion Council Executive Director Siddhartha Rajagopal said yarn exports to China did see a slight improvement. But supplies to other markets slumped. Fabric movement is also sluggish. Exporters were earlier front-loading the goods, and hence there was a good movement in August-September. They are offering 15% to 25% discount now to the U.S. buyers. “One season is gone. In markets other than the U.S., the competition is high,” he said.

He urged the Central government to look at the textile industry as one integrated value chain and offer financial support to the entire value chain.

Meanwhile, in a notification issued on Tuesday (November 18, 2025), the Union Ministry of Textiles rescinded the order issued on December 29, 2022, thus removing the Quality Control Order on viscose staple fibres.

Removal of the QCO will strengthen the manmade fibre ecosystem and benefit the industry in the long-run. The tariff issue should be resolved to address the current challenges, said Durai Palanisamy, chairman of the Southern India Mills’ Association.

Viscose staple fibre and several speciality fibres within this order are critical inputs for several value-added garments and made-ups. Revoking the QCO for viscose fibres and polyester yarn and fibres will address the price and availability concerns raised by the users of these raw materials in the MMF segment. This measure will contribute significantly to raising the competitiveness of the Indian textile and apparel sector, said Ashwin Chandran, chairman of the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry.

The Textile Ministry also said on Tuesday (November 18) that 17 new applications for a cumulative investment of ₹2,374 crore were approved under the Production Linked Incentive Scheme, round three. The proposed projects are expected to achieve projected sales of over ₹12,893 crore and generate employment for about 22,646 persons in the coming years.

The PLI Scheme for Textiles was notified on September 24, 2021, with an approved outlay of ₹10,683 crore to promote the production of MMF apparel and fabrics, and products of technical textiles.



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Port restriction on jute from Bangladesh imposed to protect local industries from subsidised products, say officials https://artifex.news/article69925244-ece/ Tue, 12 Aug 2025 17:00:00 +0000 https://artifex.news/article69925244-ece/ Read More “Port restriction on jute from Bangladesh imposed to protect local industries from subsidised products, say officials” »

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The latest order is aimed at further tightening the import of jute and products made from Bangladeshi jute. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

A day after India imposed a fresh round of port restrictions on a range of jute products, officials here justified the move as necessary because Bangladesh’s subsidies were “killing” local Indian industries.

The items listed in Monday’s (August 11, 2025) order by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) included bleached and unbleached woven fabrics of jute or of other textile fibre, twine cordage, rope made of jute, and sacks and bags of jute that have a large market in India. “Imports from Bangladesh shall not be allowed from any land port on the India-Bangladesh Border. However, it is allowed only through the Nhava Sheva seaport,” the order issued by the DGFT said.

“Bangladesh exporters were misdirecting goods under other HS (Harmonised System) codes. Export subsidies by Bangladesh government in different names were killing local industries. Anti-dumping duty was being circumvented by clubbing it with other exports at volumes well above their production capacity,” an official said.

Monday’s (August 11, 2025) order on jute is aimed at further tightening the import of jute, and products made from Bangladeshi jute. On June 27, India banned the entry of a certain range of jute items through land ports, leaving the Nhava Sheva port in Maharashtra open for the same items. That decision followed a May 17 declaration of port restriction by the DGFT targeting readymade garments from Bangladesh.

The order also banned export by Bangladesh of fruits, fruit flavoured drinks, and processed food items (baked goods, snacks, chips, and confectionary); cotton and cotton yarn waste; plastic and PVC finished goods except pigments, dyes, plasticisers, and granules; and wooden furniture via the land ports of Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Tripura. The same goods were also banned from entering India through the Land Customs Stations of Changrabandha and Fulbari.

Textiles and jute constitute two of the major areas of India-Bangladesh trade, and India’s targeting of these items intensified against the backdrop of Bangladesh Chief Advisor Muhammed Yunus’s visit to China in March, during which he described Bangladesh as the second largest readymade garment manufacturer after China, and invited China to take advantage of Bangladesh’s business potential. “Seven States of eastern India — the seven sisters —are landlocked.

They have no way to reach the ocean,” Prof. Yunus said, pitching Bangladesh as the gateway to the region at an industry meeting during the tour. He had also referred to Nepal and Bhutan as landlocked, and urged greater connectivity between these countries.

The remarks drew a strong response from several Indian leaders, including Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who described Prof. Yunus’s remarks as “offensive and strongly condemnable”.



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US presidential elections 2024: a news analysis by Sriram Lakshman https://artifex.news/article68829346-ece/ Mon, 04 Nov 2024 14:44:14 +0000 https://artifex.news/article68829346-ece/ Read More “US presidential elections 2024: a news analysis by Sriram Lakshman” »

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U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in the race for the White House. It is likely that if Ms Harris wins that many of her policies towards India will pick up where Mr Biden left off. There may be some greater emphasis on issues that are important to the left flank of the Democratic party — such as stronger or more public positions if the U.S. has concerns about democratic norms and human rights in the actions of the Narendra Modi government. There will likely also be a greater engagement with groups in the U.S. who raise these concerns.  Inter-governmental discussions on these subjects are largely — but not fully — managed behind closed doors and that is likely to continue.

Any step changes in U.S. policy towards India are more likely to appear if Mr Trump becomes President. These changes may result from first order impacts, such as in trade, the energy sector,  or the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET). But there are second order changes which could be at least as  profound, but felt only in the medium to long term. These might occur through Mr Trump’s approach to the Ukraine-Russia war, the conflict in West Asia, and importantly actions vis-à-vis China, the South Asian neighbourhood and the Indo Pacific.

Outcomes under a hypothetical second Trump administration are uncertain, not least because of the unpredictability that is at the core of Mr Trump’s strategy and approach.

Technology Partnership

Given the breadth and depth of iCET, an initiative launched in 2023 by the Biden administration and Narendra Modi government  and led by the countries’ National Security Advisors, it is likely to continue.

Watch: Why are U.S. Presidential elections held on Tuesdays?

Consider cooperation in the domain of outer space, an aspect of iCET , for instance. Mr Trump – especially since his close embrace of SpaceX founder Elon Musk, is continuing to show signs that he will be supportive of space exploration and its commercialization. He sought to promote private space exploration by scaling down regulation while in office and targeted a moon-landing by 2024. The Trump administration also established the  U.S. Space Command and the U.S. Space Force.

The ground is set for greater space cooperation between India and the US,  whether there is a continuity in policy under a Harris administration or a switch to a Trump administration, especially with India signing the Artemis Accords in June 2023.

However, with Mr Trump there could be some friction points – where manufacturing and iCET projects intersect (for example semi-conductor fabrication in India). If the U.S. is going to support manufacturing in India, Mr Trump may view that as a threat to U.S. manufacturing (it is conceivable that he will think this way about semiconductors).  Given, Mr Trump’s mercantilist world view, he is likely to expect something tangible in return and in the short to medium term, rather than playing “the long game” with India, as the Biden administration has said it is doing.  

That iCET is helping India acquire advance capabilities so it can potentially become an alternative to China as far as supply chains are concerned – a view held in the US – is not likely to satisfy Mr Trump for at least two reasons. One, this outcome is not in the near term. Two, this outcome greatly benefits India as well. He will expect India to pay.

Defence

In general, Mr Trump can be expected to emphasize the defece aspect of the U.S. relationship with India. The Quad was revived during his administration (Mr Biden elevated it to the leader level). Mr Trump is likely to push India to keep spending on arms from the U.S. ( the two countries recently concluded a $ 3.5 billion deal for India to purchase 31 MQ-9B armed drones from made by General Atomics). One of iCET’s domains is defence innovation and technology cooperation.

Trade

More generally, as far as trade is concerned, Mr Trump has a preference for trade deals, rather than the Biden administration’s framework approach. India has not yet signed on to the Indo Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF).  Mr Trump said in 2023 that he would undo this framework. He is likely to follow through – he took the US out of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) days after his inauguration.

Mr Trump views trade balances as profit and loss statements. He has repeatedly suggested that India and China ( sometimes also referring to the European Union) as being “tough” on trade.  

He called India the ‘tariff king’ when he was President and took India out of the U.S.’s preferential trading program, the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). If elected, Mr Trump is likely to seek the equalization of tariffs across product categories with regard to US-India trade.

Mr Trump is also likely to want tariff equalization across product categories. He told Bloomberg’s John Micklethwait that ‘tariff’ was the “most beautiful word in the dictionary”(since then, as November 5th got closer,  he had downgraded it to third place, after ‘love’ and ‘religion’).

A Trump administration is also likely to want to sign a trade deal with India, at least a limited-scope trade deal for starters. This was under discussion towards the end of Mr Trump’s first term but nothing came of it.

India had purchase  U.S. energy during Mr Trump’s administration after it slapped sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, cutting off those sources of oil. Given the focus on domestic fuel production during the campaign, Mr Trump is likely to not just drill for more petroleum, but also seek markets for U.S. energy in India and other countries.

China and Russia

Mr Trump has said he will end dependence on China in critical sectors – electronics, steel and pharmaceuticals. India could benefit from this.

There are, however, larger questions about his approach to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Mr Trump says he gets  on with Mr Xi,  while also mentioning China in virtually every campaign speech as an economic competitor. Mr Trump began a trade war with China during his time in the White House.  

The former President’s stance on Taiwan is complicated. He has said Taiwan should pay the U.S. for defending it  ( likening the U.S. to an “insurance company”) and has been ambiguous about whether he would go to Taiwan’s defence if China were to attack it. He is nevertheless going to have to negotiate with Republicans  (and Democrats in a split Congress); there is little appetite on both sides of the aisle to placate China. Mr Trump is also expected to have in his inner circle China hawks, e.g. , Tennessee Senator Bill Hagerty, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell and  former Defense Department official Elbridge Colby. At this stage it is largely futile , in the case of China and Russia, to identify what the outcomes of a Trump 2.0 situation will be.

With regard to Moscow, since Mr Trump left office, Indian purchases of Russian oil have increased significantly (from about 2% to just over 40% by some estimates between 2021 and May 2024).  India has been accused of helping to fund Russia’s invasion of Ukraine through oil purchases and has defended its purchases as being in its national interest. New Delhi has also noted that had it stopped buying Russian oil, the global price of oil will have increased with restricted supply.

 How these dynamics change in the medium to long term will depend on how the path of the Russia-Ukraine war is shaped under Mr Trump who has suggested a keenness to bring the conflict to a swift end. This is likely to involve significantly more unfavourable terms for Kyiv than are perhaps open to it now, going by the adulatory remarks Mr Trump has made about Russian President Vladimir Putin, his testy relationship with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his distaste for American money going to Ukraine’s assistance.

In the approach to any resolution to that conflict, there is the more immediate issue of sanctions against Russia. Even as recently as last week (October 30), the  U.S. sanctioned 19 Indian entities for providing “dual use” technologies to Russia.

There are Republicans in Congress who would oppose the removal of Russia-related sanctions.

“We don’t know how that is going to factor into Trump’s calculations,” said Lisa Curtis who leads the Indo-Pacific program at the Centre for a New American Security. Ms Curtis was the senior director for South and Central Asia in Mr Trump’s National Security Council.

“ All we know is that Trump will probably put more effort into ending the war than the Biden administration has,” she added.

Alleged assassination plots

Officials who served as bureaucrats in both Democratic and Republican administrations are united in one thing – that neither a Democratic nor Republican president would look the other way if a foreign government attempted to assassinate a U.S. citizen on U.S. soil (abstracting from whether or not that happened in the Sikhs for Justice leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun case, as alleged by the U.S. Department of Justice).

Pro-Khalistan figures, have openly propagated separatism in the Indian context as well as issued threats against Indian assets (for instance, Mr Pannun’s threats in October 2022 with regard to Air India flights). Nevertheless, thus far, these activities have appeared to avail of protections offered by the First Amendment (of the U.S. Constitution).  It is unclear if this would change under a hypothetical Trump administration. 

“I think certainly if there’s any information you know, brought to him [ Mr Trump] that demonstrates any involvement in any kind of terrorism or threats to India, a Trump administration would investigate those and act on those. But it really depends on the information that India presents and how credible it is, and what it means,” Ms Curtis told The Hindu.

“Trump … he is ‘America First’.  He’s going support US citizens … he’s not going to like the idea of another country trying to assassinate a US citizen on US territory,” she said, adding ,

“ I don’t think any US president would look favorably on that kind of thing.”

At least some American policy-makers suggest that the meeting between three Sikh groups and White House officials just ahead of Mr Modi’s visit for the Quad Summit in September this year,  was neither out of line nor something for India to be alarmed by.

Immigration

Mr Trump’s biggest campaign focus has been cracking down on illegal migration (Indians represent the largest group of Asian undocumented migrants in the United States). However, his

Rapport between leaders

Another aspect of the US-India relationship that has been discussed is the apparent connect between leaders.   Mr Biden has emphasized the role of his personal rapport with other politicians – whether from other countries or in the U.S. Congress – in delivering mutually favourable outcomes. He and Mr Modi appeared to have developed a good relationship. There are no signs of an especially good relationship  between While Mr Modi and  Ms Harris appear to have a perfectly good dynamic, there are no signs that it is especially strong.

Mr Modi and Mr Trump also had on display an apparent bonhomie in previous years – seen for example in the ‘Howdy Modi’ rally in Houston in 2019 and Mr Trump’s visit to India in early 2020.   

Officials, past and present, in Washington DC,  have suggested that interpersonal relationships at the leader level are important in setting the overall tone of the engagement at the bureaucratic level and a good rapport between leaders can encourage ministers, negotiators and officers to raise the ceiling of their ambitions.  Notwithstanding the strength of interpersonal bonds, there is a floor; and this likely to be felt sooner in a Trump administration than in a Harris administration , because of Mr Trump’s transactional approach.



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