New Delhi:

Last week China announced that it is building the world’s largest dam in Tibet – even larger than the Three Gorges Dam, which according to NASA, has slowed the Earth’s rotation by 0.06 seconds. But unlike that one, which is built in central China, the new one will be built in an environmentally-sensitive Himalayan zone in Tibet, very close to the border with India.

Besides the impact on the environment, the region is geologically fragile too as it falls in a high seismic zone and hence is prone to earthquakes of a relatively higher magnitude. These are two of several concerns New Delhi has about the gigantic project planned on the Brahmaputra river – which China calls by the name Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet.

Days after Beijing’s announcement about the mega project, New Delhi responded today, saying India will “protect its interests”. It also sent a reminder to Beijing reiterating its rights to the waters of the river while also seeking transparency over Beijing’s plans.

For now, the Ministry of External Affairs said, New Delhi will continue to closely monitor the latest developments, adding that necessary and appropriate action will be taken when required.

“We will continue to monitor and take necessary measures to protect our interests,” the foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said.

The project will have a massive impact on the flow of the Brahmaputra as well as the river basin. The proposed project will result in periods of severe drought and colossal floods affecting millions, perhaps tens of millions of Indians living downstream.

At a press conference in New Delhi today, the spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs said that Beijing has been urged “to ensure that the interests of downstream states of the Brahmaputra are not harmed by activities in upstream areas”.

Addressing a question on concerns about the projects adverse impact on Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, Mr Jaiswal said, “As a lower riparian state with established user rights to the waters of the river, we have consistently expressed, through expert-level as well as diplomatic channels, our views and concerns to the Chinese side over mega projects on rivers in their territory.”

“These have been reiterated, along with the need for transparency and consultation with downstream countries, following the latest report,” he added.

The hydroelectric project also has a geopolitical impact. The project may has the potential to result in acute geopolitical tensions between India and China, as it sows the seeds of “water wars” between the two nations – something Genevieve Donnellon-May, a geopolitical and global strategy adviser wrote about in 2022.

WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE PROJECT SO FAR

The dam, once complete, will be the world’s largest hydropower project. It is proposed to be built on the eastern rim of the Tibetan plateau, located in the lower reaches of Yarlung Zangbo (Tsangpo) or Brahmaputra river.

This ambitious project is part of China’s 14th five-year plan and aims to produce 300 billion Kwh of electricity annually. The project cost is estimated at USD 137 billion, making it the biggest infrastructure project globally.

At 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, this new dam will more than triple the 88.2 billion kWh designed capacity of the Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s largest, in central China.

During the construction of the Three Gorges Dam, China had to resettle more than 1.4 million people who were displaced because of the project. This new project is three times the size, but Beijing has not given any estimate of how many people will be displaced.

The project will also alter the regional ecology impacting both Tibet and India. It will also change the course of the river downstream – having a damaging impact on India and change the agricultural landscape.
 

New Delhi:

Last week China announced that it is building the world’s largest dam in Tibet – even larger than the Three Gorges Dam, which according to NASA, has slowed the Earth’s rotation by 0.06 seconds. But unlike that one, which is built in central China, the new one will be built in an environmentally-sensitive Himalayan zone in Tibet, very close to the border with India.

Besides the impact on the environment, the region is geologically fragile too as it falls in a high seismic zone and hence is prone to earthquakes of a relatively higher magnitude. These are two of several concerns New Delhi has about the gigantic project planned on the Brahmaputra river – which China calls by the name Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet.

Days after Beijing’s announcement about the mega project, New Delhi responded today, saying India will “protect its interests”. It also sent a reminder to Beijing reiterating its rights to the waters of the river while also seeking transparency over Beijing’s plans.

For now, the Ministry of External Affairs said, New Delhi will continue to closely monitor the latest developments, adding that necessary and appropriate action will be taken when required.

“We will continue to monitor and take necessary measures to protect our interests,” the foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said.

The project will have a massive impact on the flow of the Brahmaputra as well as the river basin. The proposed project will result in periods of severe drought and colossal floods affecting millions, perhaps tens of millions of Indians living downstream.

At a press conference in New Delhi today, the spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs said that Beijing has been urged “to ensure that the interests of downstream states of the Brahmaputra are not harmed by activities in upstream areas”.

Addressing a question on concerns about the projects adverse impact on Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, Mr Jaiswal said, “As a lower riparian state with established user rights to the waters of the river, we have consistently expressed, through expert-level as well as diplomatic channels, our views and concerns to the Chinese side over mega projects on rivers in their territory.”

“These have been reiterated, along with the need for transparency and consultation with downstream countries, following the latest report,” he added.

The hydroelectric project also has a geopolitical impact. The project has the potential to result in acute geopolitical tensions between India and China, as it sows the seeds of “water wars” between the two nations – something Genevieve Donnellon-May, a geopolitical and global strategy adviser wrote about in 2022.

WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE PROJECT SO FAR

The dam, once complete, will be the world’s largest hydropower project. It is proposed to be built on the eastern rim of the Tibetan plateau, located in the lower reaches of Yarlung Zangbo (Tsangpo) or Brahmaputra river.

This ambitious project is part of China’s 14th five-year plan and aims to produce 300 billion kWh of electricity annually. The project cost is estimated at USD 137 billion, making it the biggest infrastructure project globally.

At 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, this new dam will more than triple the 88.2 billion kWh designed capacity of the Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s largest, in central China.

During the construction of the Three Gorges Dam, China had to resettle more than 1.4 million people who were displaced because of the project. This new project is three times the size, but Beijing has not given any estimate of how many people will be displaced.

The project will alter the regional ecology impacting both Tibet and India. It will also change the course of the river downstream – having a damaging impact on India and change the agricultural landscape.
 

China will be constructing the world’s largest hydropower dam on the eastern rim of the Tibetan plateau that could impact India. The dam will be located in the lower reaches of Yarlung Zangbo, producing 300 billion kwh of electricity annually.

A bird’s eye view of the Sedongpu Gully in Tibetan China, visible just to the left of the Yarlung Tsangpo River at the centre of this image, December 30, 2020.
| Photo Credit: Google Earth

A new study on the high frequency of mass wasting events in the Sedongpu Gully of the Tibetan Plateau since 2017 and the rapid warming of the area, which rarely experienced temperatures beyond 0º C before 2012, could be bad signs for India, specifically the country’s Northeast.

A geological event, mass wasting is the gravity-influenced movement of rock and soil down a slope. A gully is a landform created by erosion from running water, mass movement or both.

The Sedongpu Gully, in the catchment of the Sedongpu glacier and its valley, is 11 km long and covers 66.8 sq. km. It drains into the Yarlung Zangbo, or the Tsangpo River, near where it takes a sharp turn — called the Great Bend — while flowing around Mt. Namcha Barwa (altitude 7,782 metres) and Mt. Gyala Peri (7,294 metres) to create a gorge 505 km long and 6,009 metres deep. This is one of the deepest gorges on the earth.

The Great Bend is close to Tibet’s border with Arunachal Pradesh, where the Tsangpo flows as the Siang River. In Assam further downstream, the Siang meets the Dibang and Lohit to form the Brahmaputra, which flows as the Jamuna in Bangladesh.

The study, authored by Weile Li and six others associated with China’s Chengdu University of Technology, was published on August 2 in the Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering.

According to their paper, more than 700 million cubic metres of debris have been mobilised in the Sedongpu gully catchment since 2017. The combination of long-term warming and intense local shaking due to earthquakes has greatly enhanced landslide activity in the area. The impact on humans has been low because it is so remote.

However, environment scientists in Assam said the study underlining landslides was ominous for areas hundreds of kilometres downstream. The threat has been accentuated by big dams such as the 510-MW Zangmu on the Tsangpo and India’s planned projects on the Siang.

River choking and flash floods

“China plans to set up a 60-gigawatt project on the Tsangpo, which will [have] thrice the capacity of the Three Gorges project on the Yangtze, the world’s largest hydropower plant,” said Partha Jyoti Das, the head of the Water, Climate, and Hazard Division of Aaranyak, a Guwahati-based biodiversity research organisation. “This region is characterised by enormous geophysical instability and experienced the 8.6-magnitude Assam-Tibet or Medog earthquake in 1950, one of the biggest of the 20th century. The 6.4-magnitude Nyingchi earthquake hit the same region in November 2017.”

“The Sedongpu study has serious implications for the Tsangpo-Siang-Brahmaputra-Jamuna, especially in India and Bangladesh. The most direct consequence could be the addition of major amounts of sediments to the course of the river, already one of the most sediment-laden rivers of the world,” he said.

The Brahmaputra carries more than 800 tonnes of sediment at Pandu in Guwahati, becoming more than a billion tonnes at Bahadurabad in Bangladesh. Dr. Das said increasing sedimentation may make the river more intensely braided in the Assam plains, which could lead to more bank erosion.

“The sedimentation can elevate the river beds more, accentuating flood hazards. Further, the channels of the river in Assam and Bangladesh may get choked with sand and silt in the lean season making navigation difficult and affecting livelihoods related to fishing,” he said.

The Sedongpu study examined the patterns of landslides in the gully catchment using satellite data from December 1969 to June 2023. From 149 satellite images, they identified 19 large mass-wasting events or event groups they divided into three sub-patterns: ice-rock avalanche (IRA), ice-moraine avalanche (IMA), and glacier debris flow (GDF). A moraine is a mass of rocks and sediment deposited by a glacier.

The debris from the IRAs temporarily blocked the Tsangpo and tributary Yigong. “The breaching of the blockages leads to catastrophic flash floods in the downstream areas such as the ones in Arunachal Pradesh’s East Siang and Assam’s Dhemaji district in 2000. These floods were triggered by the outburst of a dam created on the Yigong by the glaciated debris and rock materials generated during a huge landslide,” Dr. Das said.

Lull before hyperactivity

The Sedongpu study noted that the earliest mass wasting event in the area occurred from 1974 to 1975 and satellite images thereafter indicated no catastrophic events until 1987. Two IMAs happened from 1998 to 2000 and the gully remained quiet again from 2001 to 2017.

“The gully entered a very active period [in] 2017 with a large IRA from October 20-27 temporarily blocking the Yarlung Tsangpo,” the paper said, underlining the Nyingchi earthquake — its epicentre was 8 km from the gully’s edge — that disrupted the stability of the rocks and glaciers.

Three successive GDFs followed from November to December 2017 and two catastrophic IRAs occurred “unexpectedly” in 2018 to completely block the Tsangpo and form another gully more than 300 metres deep. “After these events, the Sedongpu gully entered an intense erosion period… Overall, among the 19 events, 13 were concentrated after 2017, accounting for 68.4% of the total,” the paper said.

The geoscientists said the bedrock of the Sedongpu basin consists mostly of Proterozoic marble and the conditions indicate its land surface temperature ranges from -5º to -15º C, rarely exceeding 0º C before 2012. Data from the nearby weather stations at Bomi and Linzhi revealed that the annual temperature in this area increased at rates of 0.34º to 0.36º C during 1981-2018, which is higher than the global average.

“It is high time we undertook similar studies to monitor the status and trends of geophysical events leading to landslides, rockfalls, and other erosional processes that could affect the geomorphic and hydrological regime of the Brahmaputra and its tributaries apart from attending to sediment management,” Dr. Das said.

rahul.karmakar@thehindu.co.in