On the economy, the report said during the first half of 2024-25, real GDP growth (y-o-y) moderated to 6 per cent from 8.2 per cent and 8.1 per cent growth recorded during H1 and H2 of 2023-24, respectively. File. Representational image
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The Indian economy is exhibiting resilience and stability, and the gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow at 6.6 per cent in 2024-25, aided by a revival in rural consumption, a pickup in government consumption and investment, and strong services exports, a RBI report said on Monday (December 30, 2024).

The Reserve Bank has released the December 2024 issue of the Financial Stability Report (FSR), which reflects the collective assessment of the Sub-Committee of the Financial Stability and Development Council (FSDC) on the resilience of the Indian financial system and risks to financial stability.

“The soundness of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) has been bolstered by strong profitability, declining non-performing assets and adequate capital and liquidity buffers. Return on assets (RoA) and return on equity (RoE) are at decadal highs, while the gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio has fallen to a multi-year low,” the report said.

It also said that macro stress tests demonstrate that most SCBs have adequate capital buffers relative to the regulatory minimum threshold even under adverse stress scenarios. Stress tests also validate the resilience of mutual funds and clearing corporations.

On the economy, FSR said during the first half of 2024-25, real GDP growth (y-o-y) moderated to 6 per cent from 8.2 per cent and 8.1 per cent growth recorded during H1 and H2 of 2023-24, respectively.

“Despite this recent deceleration, structural growth drivers remain intact. Real GDP growth is expected to recover in Q3 and Q4 of 2024-25 supported by pick up in domestic drivers, mainly public consumption and investment, strong service exports and easy financial conditions,” the RBI said.

On inflation, the report said that going forward, the disinflationary effect of a bumper kharif harvest and the rabi crop prospects are expected to soften prices of foodgrains.

On the flipside, the rising frequency of extreme weather events continues to pose risks for food inflation dynamics.

Persisting geopolitical conflicts and geo-economic fragmentation can also impose upside pressures on global supply chain and commodity prices.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened weak at 85.31 and slipped further to hit its lifetime low of 85.35 against the greenback, registering a loss of 8 paise from its previous closing level. Representational image
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee slid for the fourth straight session, depreciating 8 paise to hit a new all-time low of 85.35 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday due to strengthening American currency and relentless outflow of foreign capital.

According to analysts, the local unit was weighed down by the dollar’s strength amid the greenback’s increased demand by importers for month-end and year-end payment obligations. However, easing crude oil prices globally and positive cues from domestic equity markets capped the fall in the Indian unit.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened weak at 85.31 and slipped further to hit its lifetime low of 85.35 against the greenback, registering a loss of 8 paise from its previous closing level.

The rupee plunged 12 paise to its record low closing mark of 85.27 against the dollar on Thursday, after declining 13 paise in the previous two sessions.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.04 per cent at 107.93 amid soaring US Treasury yields with 10-year bond hovering around 4.50 per cent.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.07 per cent to USD 73.31 per barrel in futures trade.

On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share benchmark index Sensex was trading higher by 207.16 points, or 0.26 per cent at 78,679.64 points. The Nifty was up 88.50 points, or 0.37 per cent, at 23,838.70 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 2,376.67 crore, according to exchange data.

The Rupee’s earlier sharpest one-day fall of 68 paise was recorded on February 2, 2023. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The Rupee fell steepest in almost two years to hit its lifetime intraday low of 85.80 before a suspected Central bank intervention helped recover some of its losses and settled 23 paise lower at a record low of 85.50 (provisional) against the U.S. dollar on Friday (December 27, 2024) owing to a strong greenback amid increased month-end demand from banks and importers.

According to analysts, the Reserve Bank of India’s stance to hold on to its dollar payments in short-term forward contracts added to the shortage of greenback, with importers rushing to meet their month-end payment obligations.

“Despite robust sentiment in domestic equity markets, the Rupee was weighed down by sustained outflow of foreign funds and rising crude oil prices,” they added. At the interbank foreign exchange, the Rupee opened weak at 85.31 and plunged 53 paise to the lowest-ever intraday level of 85.80.

The unit finally ended the session at 85.50 (provisional) against the greenback, losing 23 paise from its previous closing level of 85.27. The Rupee’s earlier sharpest one-day fall of 68 paise was recorded on February 2, 2023.

The domestic unit has been hitting new lows almost every day in the past couple of weeks. It had plunged 12 paise to 85.27 against the dollar on Thursday (December 26, 2024) after declining 13 paise in the previous two sessions.

“The Central bank holds $21 billion in short-side forward contracts set to mature in December and January. Market speculation suggests that the RBI has refrained from rolling over these maturing forwards, leading to a scarcity of dollars and an oversupply of Rupees.

“Moreover, dollar liquidity in the market remains very low, amplifying the upward momentum in the pair. This imbalance has propelled the USD-INR pair towards 85.8075 levels,” said Amit Pabari, MD of CR Forex Advisors.

According to Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, the Rupee hit a record low on dollar demand from importers towards the end of the month and outflows from foreign investors (FIIs).

“Rising U.S. treasury yields and crude oil prices also weighed on the Rupee,” he said and projected the USD-INR spot price in a range of ₹85.30 to ₹85.85, saying traders may take cues from goods trade balance data from the U.S.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.04% at 107.94, while the 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury yield rose 0.76%, hitting its seven-month high level of 4.61%. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.15% to $73.37 per barrel in futures trade.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex settled 226.59 points or 0.29% higher at 78,699.07 points, while Nifty went up 63.20 points or 0.27% to close at 23,813.40 points.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday (December 26, 2024), as they offloaded shares worth ₹2,376.67 crore, according to exchange data.

“While such practices may yield short-term gains, they ultimately expose the bank to significant long-term risks, including reputational damage, supervisory scrutiny, and financial penalties,” Shaktikanta Das said in a keynote address at the Conference of Directors of Private Sector Banks here.
| Photo Credit: Thulasi Kakkat

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday (November 18, 2024) asked bank boards to strengthen internal governance framework to curb unethical practices, such as mis-selling of products or opening of accounts without proper KYC verification.

Mr. Das also said that the incentives for bank staff should be carefully structured so as not to encourage them to indulge in unethical practices.

“While such practices may yield short-term gains, they ultimately expose the bank to significant long-term risks, including reputational damage, supervisory scrutiny, and financial penalties,” he said in a keynote address at the Conference of Directors of Private Sector Banks here.

Mr. Das further said that the Indian banking sector is transitioning through a time which is replete with opportunities as well as risks and challenges.

“The banking sector remains strong and stable. All the financial indicators have improved since we met in May last year, reflecting the efforts of the various participants of the banking sector, including their management and boards,” he said.

To keep the resilience of the banking system intact, the governor emphasised that strong fundamentals ought to be leveraged to reinforce and fortify the defences.

“Good times, after all, are the best times to reinforce resilience and grow sustainably,” he added. Mr. Das also said that in the rapidly evolving and technology-driven environment, organisations face significant challenges and risks.

Factors like technological advancements, the rise of new-age fintech entities, third-party dependencies and climate change are reshaping the economic landscape, he added.

Amid these shifting tides, bank boards should serve as a lighthouse for lenders and provide steady guidance to help navigate these challenges and steer towards safe and prosperous shores, he said.

 At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 83.24 against the dollar and then touched an early high of 83.22, registering a gain of 5 paise over its previous close. File
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The rupee appreciated by 5 paise to 83.22 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday supported by a positive trend in domestic equities.

Forex traders said the rupee is trading in a narrow range as sustained foreign fund outflows and strength of the American currency in the overseas market weighed on investor sentiments.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 83.24 against the dollar and then touched an early high of 83.22, registering a gain of 5 paise over its previous close.

On Monday, the rupee settled at 83.27 against the US dollar.

“This week, on the domestic front, no major economic data is expected to be released but on the global front, from US the dollar could react to Fed member’s speech and a couple of important economic data from the US,” said Gaurang Somaiya, forex and bullion analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial.

Somaiya further noted that “we expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 83.05 and 83.50.” The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.06 per cent higher at 106.30.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.02 per cent to $89.67 per barrel.

In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 325.65 points or 0.49 per cent higher at 66,492.58. The broader NSE Nifty advanced 98.15 points or 0.5 per cent to 19,829.90.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday as they sold shares worth ₹593.66 crore, according to exchange data.