Congress MP and Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi participates in the swearing-in ceremony of TVK Chief Vijay as Tamil Nadu Chief Minister at Jawaharlal Nehru Indoor Stadium in Chennai.
| Photo Credit: B. Jothi Ramalingam

It has been over two years since top Tamil actor Vijay launched his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). Yet, with no electoral debut so far, there is little clarity on the party’s potential vote share in the upcoming Tamil Nadu and Puducherry Assembly elections.

Within the party, optimism runs high, with some functionaries informally projecting a vote share of around 25%. Outside, however, estimates vary widely. A section of observers believes TVK could mirror the early performance of late Vijayakant’s DMDK, securing about 8–10% in its first outing. Others suggest the party could push closer to 15%.

Predicting electoral outcomes in Tamil Nadu has never been straightforward, particularly in Assembly elections. The entry of TVK and of Mr. Vijay, a political greenhorn with Chief Ministerial ambitions, has only complicated the arithmetic further.

The party skipped the last Lok Sabha polls and the February 2025 Erode (East) Assembly bypoll. Consequently, its actual support base remains untested. Its decision to go it alone has set the stage for a four-cornered contest in Tamil Nadu.

Was this strategic restraint—avoiding early electoral exposure—a deliberate move by Mr. Vijay to keep his political capital intact ahead of a high-stakes debut?

“Mr. Vijay knows what he is doing. Like in his movies, he is going by the script in politics as well,” said Professor G. Palanithurai, former dean of Students’ Welfare at Gandhigram Rural Institute.

There is a theory that Dravidian rhetoric has killed intellectualism in the State. Professor Palanithurai, who specialises in grass-roots democracy, said he has been visiting campuses, and the lack of political discourse in higher educational institutions has led to the youth gravitating towards the actor over time.

Besides, corruption has been regularised. The ruling DMK and Opposition AIADMK accuse each other of corruption but never take action against each other when in power. “Mr. Vijay has sensed it. That is why he is focusing on anti-corruption to attract voters. Vijayakanth also fought on the anti-corruption theme, but Mr. Vijay is more popular than Vijayakanth. He attracts huge crowds, especially youth. Even the ruling DMK can’t bring in such crowds voluntarily,” he said.

While crediting the Dravidian parties with their developmental policies, both social and industrial, the academician, however, said politics has now become corrupt. “Mr. Vijay is a film personality. He understands the psychology of the masses. The rule of law has now become the ruling party’s law. That is why he is taking on the ruling governments,” he added.

“On the flip side, unlike [actor-turned-Chief Ministers] MGR and Jayalalithaa, Mr. Vijay is not close to the rank and file. He is in isolation all the time. Also, the TVK’s second line of leadership is not impressive. However, Tamil Nadu’s peculiar politics lacks a collective leadership as Dravidianism has shown the way to herding. Mass appeal counts,” he asserted.

Against the ideologically inclined DMK and politically masterful late M. Karunanidhi, it was the personal charisma and political acumen of MGR and J. Jayalalithaa that had kept the AIADMK in power for a longer time than its arch-rival. Mr. Vijay, with his mass appeal, seems to be gradually filling the charismatic leaders’ role.

But is that adequate to penetrate the world of politics? “Popularity in cinema doesn’t always bring votes. We can’t draw a parallel between Mr. Vijay and MGR. MGR had a strong hold in the party, and he broke ranks while he was the treasurer of the DMK. He campaigned and worked hard for all those years. He also brought the underprivileged and the subaltern into his movies. The titles would resonate with communities, like Vivasayi, Padagotti and Meenava Nanban,” said P. Ramajayam, an academician.

“Grass-roots politics requires social and political mobilisation, involving several groups like minorities and subalterns”, he said. “Mr. Vijay’s popularity seems to be higher among the youth. But so far, he has not been tested electorally. He is confident and wants only positive results,” he added.

Long-time political observers feel that apart from the mass appeal, the party needs social and political mobilisation. The TVK should have a strength of about 300 to 400 cadre per booth to secure around 100 votes each. If the party garners 15% of votes, Mr. Vijay would have a future as a politician.

“Mr Vijay is certainly a large crowd puller, and the crowds are organic. Only two leaders do not pay for crowds— [Naam Tamilar Katchi’s] Seeman and Mr. Vijay,” said R. Kannan, biographer of former Chief Ministers C.N. Annadurai and MGR.

Asked if Mr. Vijay would succeed, he says, “May 4 [election counting date] will give the answer.”

Published – April 07, 2026 05:58 pm IST

TNCC chief Selvaperunthagai. File
| Photo Credit: M. Periasamy

CPI(M) general secretary M.A. Baby. File
| Photo Credit: PTI

AIADMK’s senior leader and former Education and Health Minister S. Semmalai on Saturday called upon political parties to avoid rolling out a slew of freebies.

Asked whether the spree of freebies, being announced by major political parties as part of their electoral assurances, would facilitate the development of Tamil Nadu, the 80-year-old former Minister replied emphatically: “Definitely not! This should be avoided. Leaders of political parties should realise this.” He added that his prescription was applicable to the Union government too.

Pointing out that the outstanding debt of the State government would exceed the ₹10-lakh-crore mark by 2026-27 from about ₹5.19 lakh crore five years ago, Mr. Semmalai, who represented Salem in the Lok Sabha during 2009-14, contended that this would be double the figure the State had accrued in the last 50 years. “Loans have been taken even to meet the commitment of interest payment.”

Criticising the DMK government for not increasing the capital expenditure substantially in the last five years, the former Minister said the present regime had “frittered away” funds for the purpose of distributing freebies, done keeping with “vote bank politics” in mind. At least in future, there should be higher allocations for capital expenditure to enable the implementation of more infrastructure development projects, eventually triggering the generation of greater revenue.

Clarifying that he was not for the abolition of freebies, he, however, stipulated that freebies be targeted towards the needy, vulnerable sections of society so that the living standards were raised. “Instead of being given as freebies, you can give grants,” he suggested.

Asked about the AIADMK’s freebies, Mr. Semmalai answered that “there is no other way out. Like any other party, we also have to dress up. But, when we come to power, we will correct the trend and provide more funds for capital expenditure.”

On the question of the party suffering frequent electoral setbacks in the last 10 years, the former parliamentarian, who has not sought a party ticket to contest in the coming election, said: “Electoral success or defeat is not important for any political party. What is more important is the party infrastructure and network, which remains intact in our case.”

Head-to-head results

The AIADMK, which had seen its golden jubilee, had defeated the DMK (formed in 1949), at the hustings on seven occasions. After M.G. Ramachandran (MGR) established his party in 1972, former Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi could not taste power for 13 years at a stretch, he said.

On three occasions in the past, the DMK did not even secure the position of Leader of the Opposition (LOP) in the Assembly. All these did not render it irrelevant. However, even with the absence of two “towering personalities” (M.G. Ramachandran and Jayalalithaa), the AIADMK [in 2021] had managed to retain the LOP position, apart from its front being able to win 75 seats.

“This was no ordinary performance, as the party had experienced confusion, which arose after the death of Jayalalithaa. On the contrary, in 1991, the DMK bagged only two seats,” Mr. Semmalai recalled.

Asked whether the apparent support among the youth for the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-politician Vijay, was a reflection of the failure of the two Dravidian majors to attract the new and younger generation, Mr. Semmalai called the TVK an “untested force” and said not all fans of Mr. Vijay would become workers of the new party. “So, you cannot guess the strength of the party, taking into account the fans.”

To another question whether the TVK founder was following the example of MGR, who was also a matinee idol, the former Minister replied that after establishing the party in 1972, MGR had demonstrated the party’s strength by winning in in the 1973 Dindigul Lok Sabha and 1974 Coimbatore (West) Assembly byelections. In addition to emerging as the single largest party in Puducherry in 1974, the AIADMK had formed the government, Mr. Semmalai recalled.

Published – March 22, 2026 12:39 am IST