As insurgents raced across Syria in a surprise offensive launched in the country’s northwest late last year, officials from several countries backing either the rebels or Syria’s government met in Qatar on what to do.

According to people briefed on the December 7 meeting, officials from Turkey, Russia, Iran and a handful of Arab countries agreed that the insurgents would stop their advance in Homs, the last major city north of Damascus, and that internationally mediated talks would take place with Syrian leader Bashar Assad on a political transition.

But insurgent factions from Syria’s south had other plans. They pushed toward the capital, arriving in Damascus’ largest square before dawn. Insurgents from the north, led by the Islamist group Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham, arrived hours later. Assad, meanwhile, had fled.

HTS, the most organized of the groups, has since established itself as Syria’s de facto rulers after coordinating with the southern fighters during the lighting-fast offensive.

Wariness among the southern factions since then, however, has highlighted questions over how the interim administration can bring together a patchwork of former rebel groups, each with their own leaders and ideology.

HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has called for a unified National Army and security forces. The interim defense minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, has begun meeting with armed groups. But some prominent leaders like southern rebel commander Ahmad al-Awda have refused to attend.

Officials with the interim government did not respond to questions.

The southern province of Daraa is widely seen as the cradle of the Syrian uprising in 2011. When anti-government protests were met with repression by Assad’s security forces, “we were forced to carry weapons,” said Mahmoud al-Bardan, a rebel leader there.

The rebel groups that formed in the south had different dynamics from those in the north, less Islamist and more localized, said Aron Lund, a fellow with the Century International think tank. They also had different backers.

“In the north, Turkey and Qatar favored Islamist factions very heavily,” he said. “In the south, Jordanian and American involvement nudged the insurgency in a different direction.”

In 2018, factions in Daraa reached a Russian-mediated “reconciliation agreement” with Assad’s government. Some former fighters left for Idlib, the destination for many from areas recaptured by government forces, while others remained.

The deal left many southern factions alive and armed, Lund said.

“We only turned over the heavy weapons … the light weapons remained with us,” Mahmoud al-Bardan said.

When the HTS-led rebel groups based in the north launched their surprise offensive last year in Aleppo, those weapons were put to use again. Factions in the southern provinces of Daraa, Sweida and Quneitra reactivated, forming a joint operations room to coordinate with northern ones.

On December 7, “we had heard from a number of parties that there might be an agreement that … no one would enter Damascus so there could be an agreement on the exit of Bashar Assad or a transitional phase,” said Nassim Abu Ara, an official with one of the largest rebel factions in the south, the 8th Brigade of al-Awda.

However, “we entered Damascus and turned the tables on these agreements,” he said.

Al-Bardan confirmed that account, asserting that the agreement “was binding on the northern factions” but not the southern ones.

“Even if they had ordered us to stop, we would not have,” he said, reflecting the eagerness among many fighters to remove Assad as soon as possible.

Ammar Kahf, executive director of the Istanbul-based Omran Center for Strategic Studies, who was in Doha on Dec. 7 and was briefed on the meetings, said there was an agreement among countries’ officials that the rebels would stop their offensive in Homs and go to Geneva for negotiations on “transitional arrangements.”

But Mr. Kahf said it was not clear that any Syrian faction, including HTS, agreed to the plan. Representatives of countries at the meeting did not respond to questions.

A statement released by the foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia, Iran, Qatari, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq after the December 7 meeting said they “stressed the need to stop military operations in preparation for launching a comprehensive political process” but did not give specifics.

The initial hours after armed groups’ arrival in Damascus were chaotic. Observers said the HTS-led forces tried to re-impose order when they arrived. An Associated Press journalist saw an argument break out when HTS fighters tried to stop members of another faction from taking abandoned Army munitions.

Mr. Abu Ara acknowledged that “there was some chaos” but added, “we have to understand that these people were pent-up and suddenly they achieved the joy of victory in this manner.”

During a visit by AP journalists to the western countryside of Daraa province this month, there was no visible presence of HTS forces.

At one former Syrian Army site, a fighter with the Free Syrian Army, the main faction in the area, stood guard in jeans and a camouflage shirt. Other local fighters showed off a site where they were storing tanks abandoned by the former Army.

“Currently these are the property of the new state and Army,” whenever it is formed, said one fighter, Issa Sabaq.

The process of forming those has been bumpy.

On New Year’s Eve, factions in the Druze-majority city of Sweida in southern Syria blocked the entry of a convoy of HTS security forces who had arrived without giving prior notice.

Ahmed Aba Zeid, a Syrian researcher who has studied the southern insurgent groups, said some of the factions have taken a wait-and-see approach before they agree to dissolve and hand over their weapons to the state.

Local armed factions are still the de facto security forces in many areas.

Earlier this month, the new police chief in Daraa city appointed by the HTS-led government, Badr Abdel Hamid, joined local officials in the town of Nawa to discuss plans for a police force there.

Hamid said there had been “constructive and positive cooperation” with factions in the region, adding the process of extending the “state’s influence” takes time.

Mr. Abu Ara said factions are waiting to understand their role. “Will it be a strong Army, or a border guard Army, or is it for counterterrorism?” he asked.

Still, he was optimistic that an understanding will be reached.

“A lot of people are afraid that there will be a confrontation, that there won’t be integration or won’t be an agreement,” he said. “But we want to avoid this at all costs, because our country is very tired of war.”

Now, cushions and plants brighten the wreckage that he is determined to call home again.

“As soon as we found out that… the regime was gone and that people were coming back… we sorted our things” and packed the car, said Kafozi, 74, standing in the wreckage of his home in a former rebel bastion near the capital.

“We came back in the hope that our home would be different to this.”

Plastic sheeting covers windows in what remains of the home where he and his family are living with no electricity, running water or even a proper bathroom, in the town of Hammuriyeh.

Siege, return

Syria’s war began in 2011 when Assad unleashed a crackdown on democracy protests, prompting soldiers to defect from the army and civilians to take up weapons.

When Eastern Ghouta, where Hammuriyeh is located, fell out of Assad’s control, the government imposed a siege and launched a ferocious air and ground assault. Assad’s forces were accused of conducting chemical attacks on rebel areas of Eastern Ghouta.

In 2018, tens of thousands of fighters and civilians were bussed to Opposition-held northwest Syria under evacuation deals brokered by Assad backer Russia. Among those who left the area at the time were Mr. Kafozi and his family. His granddaughter Baraa, now eight, “was an infant in our arms” when they left, he said.

Fast-forward to December 2024, Assad was ousted in an offensive spearheaded by Islamist fighters, allowing displaced Syrians to return to their homes.

Mr. Kafozi said that when Baraa first saw the damage, “She just stared and said, ‘What’s this destroyed house of ours? Why did we come? Let’s go back.’” “I told her, this is our home, we have to come back to it,” he said.

Until their return to Hammuriyeh, his family sought refuge in the northwest and survived a 2023 earthquake that hit Syria and neighbouring Turkiye.

Despite the damage to his home, Mr. Kafozi said: “I don’t regret coming back.”

Outside, children played in the dusty street, while a truck delivered gas bottles and people passed on bicycles.

Next door, Mr. Kafozi’s nephew Ahmed, 40, has also returned with his wife and four children, but they are staying with relatives because of the damage to their home.

From the shell of a bedroom, the day worker looked out at a bleak landscape of buildings crumpled and torn by bombing.

“Our hope is that there will be reconstruction in the country,” he said. “I don’t think an individual effort can bear this, it’s too big, the damage in the country is great.”

Syria’s 13-year-war has killed more than 5,00,000 people, displaced millions more and ravaged the country’s infrastructure and industry.

Local official Baibars Zein, 46, said bus transport had been arranged for people displaced from Hammuriyeh. “We’ve taken around 106 families — the total number of families that want to come back is around 2,000,” he said.

‘Oppression is gone’

Among those who returned was Zein’s brother Saria, who left his wife and five children in northwest Syria to try to make their flat inhabitable before they return.

To Saria, the devastation was a grim reminder of a 2015 strike that killed his seven-year-old daughter.

His children “are really excited, they call me and say ‘Dad, we want to come back,’” he said.

“We are very very optimistic — the oppression is gone,” he said.

Representational image.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Fourteen members of the Syrian police were killed in an “ambush” by forces loyal to the ousted government in the Tartous countryside, the transitional administration said early on Thursday (December 26, 2024), as demonstrations and an overnight curfew elsewhere marked the most widespread unrest since Bashar al-Assad’s removal more than two weeks ago.

Syria’s new Interior Minister said on Telegram that 10 police members were also wounded by what he called “remnants” of the Assad government in Tartous, vowing to crack down on “anyone who dares to undermine Syria’s security or endanger the lives of its citizens.”

Earlier, Syrian police imposed an overnight curfew in the city of Homs, state media reported, after unrest there linked to demonstrations that residents said were led by members of the minority Alawite and Shi’ite Muslim religious communities.

Reuters could not immediately confirm the demands of the demonstrators nor the degree of disturbance that took place.

Some residents said the demonstrations were linked to pressure and violence in recent days aimed at members of the Alawite minority, a sect long seen as loyal to Assad, who was toppled by Sunni Islamist rebels on Dec. 8.

Spokespeople for Syria’s new ruling administration led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, a former al Qaeda affiliate, did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the curfew.

State media said the curfew was being imposed for one night, from 6 pm local time (1500 GMT) until 8 am on Thursday morning.

The country’s new leaders have repeatedly vowed to protect minority religious groups, who fear the former rebels now in control could seek to impose a conservative form of Islamist government.

Small demonstrations also took place in other areas on or near Syria’s coast, where most of the country’s Alawite minority live, including in Tartous.

The demonstrations took place around the time an undated video was circulated on social networks showing a fire inside an Alawite shrine in the city of Aleppo, with armed men walking around inside and posing near human bodies.

The Interior Ministry said on its official Telegram account the video dated back to the rebel offensive on Aleppo in late November and the violence was carried out by unknown groups, adding whoever was circulating the video now appeared to be seeking to incite sectarian strife.

The Ministry also said some members of the former regime had attacked interior ministry forces in Syria’s coastal area on Wednesday, leaving a number of dead and wounded.

Smoke billows as people gather to celebrate the fall of the Syrian government, in Damascus, Syria, Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AP

Officials of the Indian embassy in the Syrian capital Damascus are safe and are in contact with Indians in the conflict-hit country where the government of Bashar Al-Assad fell to a militant uprising on Sunday (December 8, 2024).

“Our embassy continues to remain operational in Damascus, Syria. The embassy is in touch with all Indian nationals, and they are safe. The embassy remains available to assist Indian nationals in Syria,” said a source in the Ministry of External Affairs.

FOLLOW MORE: Syria war LIVE updates: Russia grants asylum to Assad and his family ‘on humanitarian grounds’

Last week, the Ministry had said that India was following the developments in Syria “closely”, saying that around “90 Indian nationals” remain in the country.

Official spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal had said on Friday, “Our Mission remains in close contact with our nationals for their safety and security.” Various UN agencies have 14 Indian nationals employed with them, he had said.

In disagreement:People protest possible rapprochement between Syrian and Turkiye in the city of Azaz in the rebel-held north of Syria’s Aleppo province, close to the Turkish border, on Friday, July 12, 2024.
| Photo Credit: AFP

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have recently signalled that they are interested in restoring diplomatic ties that have been ruptured for more than a decade.

Mr. Erdogan has said he hopes to arrange a meeting with Mr. Assad soon for the first time since the countries broke off relations in 2011 as mass anti-government protests and a brutal crackdown by security forces in Syria spiralled into a still-ongoing civil war.

Speaking at a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Washington on Thursday, Mr. Erdogan said he had called on Mr. Assad two weeks ago to either come to Turkiye for the meeting or to hold it in a third country, and that he had assigned Turkiye’s Foreign Minister to follow up.

Turkiye had backed Syrian insurgent groups seeking to overthrow Mr. Assad and still maintains forces in the opposition-held northwest, a sore point for Damascus.

This is not the first time that there have been attempts to normalise relations between the two countries, but previous attempts failed to gain traction.

Russia, which is one of the strongest backers of Mr. Assad’s government but also has close ties with Turkiye, has been pushing for a return to diplomatic relations.

Previous efforts

In December 2022, the Turkish, Syrian and Russian Defence Ministers held talks in Moscow, the first ministerial level meeting between rivals Turkiye and Syria since 2011.

Russia also brokered meetings between Syrian and Turkish officials last year.

However, the talks fizzled, and Syrian officials publicly continued to blast Turkiye’s presence in northwest Syria. Mr. Assad said in an interview with Sky News Arabia last August that the objective of Mr. Erdogan’s overtures was “to legitimise the Turkish occupation in Syria.”

Russia appears to once again be promoting the talks, but this time around, Iraq — which shares a border with both Turkiye and Syria — has also offered to mediate, as it previously did between regional arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Aron Lund, a fellow with the Century International think tank, said Iraq may have taken the initiative as a way to deflect pressure from Turkiye to crack down on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, a Kurdish separatist group that has waged an insurgency against Turkiye since the 1980s and has bases in northern Iraq.

By pushing rapprochement with Syria, Baghdad may be trying to “create some form of positive engagement with the Turks and deflect the threat of an intervention,” Mr. Lund said.

The geopolitical situation in the region has also changed with Israel’s war on Gaza and fears of a wider regional conflict. Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, an analyst on Turkiye and director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, said that both countries may be feeling insecure and seeking new alliances in the face of the war’s potential regional ripple effects.

From Mr. Erdogan’s side, Mr. Unluhisarcikli said, the attempt to engage is likely driven in part by the increasing anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkiye. Mr. Erdogan is likely hoping for a deal that could pave the way for the return of many of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees living in his country.

From the Syrian side, a return to relations with Turkiye would be another step toward ending Mr. Assad’s political isolation in the region.

And despite their differences over Turkiye’s presence in northwest Syria, Damascus and Ankara both have an interest in curtailing the autonomy of Kurdish groups in northeast Syria.

Turkiye may be concerned that the security situation in northeast Syria could deteriorate in the event that the U.S. withdraws troops it currently has stationed there as part of a coalition against the Islamic State militant group, Mr. Unluhisarcikli said.

Joseph Daher, a Swiss-Syrian researcher and visiting professor at the European University Institute in Florence, said the two governments likely hope for modest “economic gains” in a rapprochement. While trade never completely stopped, it currently goes through intermediaries, he said, while restoring diplomatic relations would allow official commerce to resume and make trade more fluid.

‘Bad blood’

Although the two countries’ interests “actually overlap to a large degree,” Mr. Lund said, “there are also major disagreements” and “a lot of bad blood and bitterness” that could impede even “lower-level dealmaking.” Both Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Assad may also want to wait for the outcome of the U.S. election before making a major deal, he said.

In the long run, Mr. Lund said, “The logic of the situation dictates Turkish-Syrian collaboration in some form… They are stuck with each other and the current stalemate does them no good.”

Mr. Unluhisarcikli agreed that a “grand bargain” is unlikely to come out of the present talks. But the increased dialogue could lead to “some confidence building measures,” he said.

In Turkiye and in government-controlled Syria, many view the prospects of a rapprochement positively. In northwest Syria, on the other hand, protests have broken out against the prospect of a normalisation of relations between Ankara — which had previously positioned itself as a protector of the Syrian opposition — and Damascus.

Kurds in Syria have also viewed the potential rapprochement with apprehension. The Kurdish-led authority in northeast Syria said in a statement that the prospective reconciliation would be a “conspiracy against the Syrian people” and a “clear legitimisation of the Turkish occupation” of previously Kurdish-majority areas that were seized by Turkish-backed forces.