Efforts to end the war between the U.S. and Iran appeared to stall as the two sides traded fire in ‌the Gulf on Friday (May 8, 2026), while a U.S. intelligence analysis concluded Tehran could withstand a naval blockade for months.

A ​CIA assessment indicated that Iran would not suffer severe economic pressure from a U.S. blockade of Iranian ⁠ports for about another four months, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter, suggesting that U.S. leverage over Tehran remains limited as the two sides seek to end a conflict that has been unpopular with U.S. voters.

Iran-Israel war LIVE- May 9, 2026

The Washington Post first reported the assessment. Recent days have seen the biggest ‌flare-ups in fighting in and around the Strait of Hormuz since a ceasefire began a month ago, and the United Arab Emirates came under renewed attack on Friday (May 8, 2026).

Washington is awaiting Tehran’s response to a U.S. proposal that would formally ‌end the war before talks on more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear program. “We should know something today,” U.S. Secretary of ‌State Marco ⁠Rubio told reporters in Rome earlier in the day. “We’re expecting a response from them.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson ⁠said Tehran was still weighing its response, and none was reported by mid-afternoon in Washington, just before midnight in Tehran.

Sporadic clashes in Strait

Meanwhile, more sporadic clashes between Iranian forces and U.S. vessels took place in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported. The Tasnim news agency later cited an Iranian military source ​saying the situation had calmed, but warned more clashes were ‌possible. The U.S. military said it struck two Iran-linked vessels attempting to enter an Iranian port, with a U.S. fighter jet hitting their smokestacks and forcing them to turn back. Iran has largely blocked non-Iranian shipping through the strait since the war began with joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes across Iran on February 28. The U.S. imposed a blockade on Iranian vessels last month.

Oil prices rose, with ‌Brent crude futures above $101 a barrel, though still down more than 6% for the week. Mr. Trump said on Thursday (May 7, 2026) the ​ceasefire was still holding despite the flare-ups in the strait, which, before the war, handled one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. The confrontation extended beyond the waterway. The United Arab Emirates said its air defences engaged with ⁠two ballistic missiles and three drones from Iran on Friday (May 8, 2026), with three people sustaining moderate injuries.

During the war, Iran has repeatedly targeted the UAE and other Gulf states that host U.S. military bases. In what the UAE called a “major escalation”, Iran stepped up attacks this week in ‌response to Mr. Trump’s announcement of “Project Freedom” to escort ships in the strait, which he paused after 48 hours.

Iran accuses U.S. of breaching truce

Iran accused the U.S. of breaching the ceasefire, which had largely held since it was announced on April 7 but has come under strain this week. “Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday (May 8, 2026). Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that one crew member was killed, 10 wounded and four missing after a U.S. Navy attack on an Iranian commercial ship late on Thursday (May 7, 2026).

Mr. Rubio, after meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, questioned why Italy ‌and other allies were not backing Washington’s efforts to reopen the strait. “Are you going to normalise a country claiming to control an international waterway? Because if ​you normalise that, you’ve set a precedent that’s going to get repeated in a dozen other places,” he said.

U.S. imposes sanctions

While pursuing diplomacy, the U.S. also ratcheted up sanctions to pressure Iran. The U.S. Treasury on Friday (May 8, 2026) announced ⁠sanctions against 10 individuals and companies, including several in China and Hong Kong, for aiding efforts by Iran’s military to secure weapons and raw ⁠materials used to build Tehran’s Shahed drones.

Treasury said in a statement it remains ready to take economic action against Iran’s military industrial base so Tehran cannot reconstitute its production capacity and project power outside its borders. It also said it was ‌prepared to act against any foreign company supporting illicit Iranian commerce, including airlines, and could impose secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions that aid Iran’s efforts, including those connected to China’s independent “teapot” oil refineries.

The announcement came days before Mr. Trump plans to travel ​to China for a meeting with President Xi Jinping.

The U.S. announced Project Freedom on May 4 to end the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. It was suspended the next day even as merchant ships and U.S. Navy craft came under attack.

Though U.S. President Donald Trump cited progress in negotiations with Iran as the reason for calling off the initiative project, Iran had shown it could escalate the situation if the U.S. persisted in its attempt to deny Iran stakes in the Strait of Hormuz and establish dominance in the Persian Gulf.

This was a far cry from 30 years ago, when the U.S. was able to intervene in the Tanker Wars and ensure a relatively smoother flow of ships in the region.

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Listing a range of advanced systems, including underwater drones and warships, the U.S. said multiple advanced military capabilities were being “harnessed” in Project Freedom to reopen safe navigation through the strait. As the initiative got underway, the U.S. claimed two U.S.-flagged merchant ships had crossed the strait freely, apparently not through the routes Iran had indicated, as a demonstration meant to encourage confidence. Iran had earlier indicated that only the area close to its coast was free of mines and marked a danger zone running almost the entire breadth of the strait towards Oman.

In a day, however, Mr. Trump declared Project Freedom was temporarily suspended. There were indications shipowners were not convinced to make the transit. The same day the project was announced, Hapag-Lloyd, one of the biggest container shipping companies in the world, said its risk assessment remained unchanged and that the Strait of Hormuz remained closed for its transits until further notice.

The industry sought more details since the U.S. indicated it was not going to escort ships individually, unlike 30 years ago when it largely succeeded in beating back Iranian initiatives to take control of the strait. Operation Earnest Will involved minesweepers, patrol boats and U.S. warships escorting merchant ship convoys with anti-missile batteries to counter Iranian attacks.

At the time, Iran had recently acquired Silkworm missiles that could be mounted on trucks and fired from land at merchant ships. It also had speedboats with machine guns and mines in its arsenal. Iran sought to attack Kuwaiti and Saudi ships because the two countries were supporting Iraq, its adversary.

During Operation Earnest Will, the U.S. Navy escorted nearly 130 fleets consisting of more than 250 ships in a 14-month period ending in September 1988. Though the Tanker Wars drove up insurance costs and reduced traffic, transits continued amid a few attacks and the strait remained open. After the U.S. launched a major operation destroying Iran’s Naval capabilities, Iran backed off and the Tanker Wars ceased.

Now, however, some experts say drones have changed the equation. A few low-cost weapons can inflict visible damage on merchant ships and even one hit from a swarm of drones could have a disproportionate impact, including on insurance costs that influence global ship movements. “The U.S. is still ahead of the game as far as countering Iranian surprises is concerned, especially if it is able to deploy its capabilities continuously,” said Commodore (retd.) R. Seshadri Vasan, defence expert.

But that commitment was not visible to the shipping industry since key operational details were missing. Meanwhile, at least two merchant ships, including a UAE tanker, were attacked and damaged. Two U.S. Navy destroyers were hit too, in a sign of Iranian firepower. “While a few ships made it out safely while Project Freedom was in place, it was clear that transits without coordination with Iran entailed significant risk,” said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer of Bimco, a global industry body representing shipowners.

The U.S. military on Thursday (April 23, 2026) seized another tanker associated with the smuggling of Iranian oil, ratcheting up a standoff with Iran a day after its paramilitary Revolutionary Guards took control of two vessels in the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

The Defence Department released video footage of U.S. forces on the deck of the oil tanker Majestic X, which was seized in the Indian Ocean.

Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard opened fire Wednesday (April 22, 2026) on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging the ship and further raising the stakes as planned ceasefire talks in Pakistan failed to materialise.

The morning attack by Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard came after U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. would indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran, which had been due to expire on Wednesday (April 22, 2026), to give Tehran time to come up with a “unified proposal” ahead of possible negotiations. Iran has offered no formal acknowledgement of Mr. Trump’s ceasefire extension.