The political landscape in Sri Lanka is set to change as its citizens elect a new President on Saturday. Sri Lanka’s 17 million voters will choose from among 39 candidates in the country’s first election after the people’s uprising of 2022, which led to then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ouster.

This year’s election is dominated by two major alliances, the SJB (Samagi Jana Balawegaya) and the NPP (National People’s Power), apart from various smaller parties and independent candidates.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe of the UNP (United National Party) is contesting as an independent. Wickremesinghe, popularly known as RW, is being supported by many rebel legislators of the SLPP (Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna) headed by former president Mahinda Rajapaksa. Also in the contest are opposition leader Sajith Premadasa from the SJB alliance; leftist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna) – the presidential candidate of NPP – and Mahinda’s son, Namal Rajapaksa, as the SLPP candidate.

Poll surveys and experts suggest that Lankan voters are prioritising issues such as economy, education, health, law, and security. Matters of corruption and wrongdoing among politicians, which dominated the electoral narrative, have receded into the background after the 2022 unrest. Since most governments in the past didn’t solve the corruption issue, people feel it’s better to talk about development. They hope to elect a leader who can pull them out of dire poverty.

Gloomy past

In the last election, held after the Easter bombings on April 21, 2019, Gotabaya Rajapaksa of SLPP (Namal’s uncle) won a decisive victory and Sajith Premadasa came second. However, three years later, the world saw Sri Lankans oust President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, having endured a steady economic slide. The flawed economic and monetary policies of Gotabaya, along with the COVID-19 pandemic that dented tourism – a chunk of the economy – resulted in an unsustainable debt level. In April 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt and asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance. The Russia-Ukraine war further aggravated the crisis with rising food, medicine and fuel prices resulting in mass protests never seen before in the country’s history.

The uprising was given the name of ‘Janatha Aragalaya‘ (a Sinhala term). Then Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned and subsequently, his brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa quit as President and fled. Ranil Wickremesinghe, a former minister, became Prime Minister. In July 2022, Ranil took over as president through a parliamentary vote with the support of the Rajapaksas’ party SLPP, which still has the majority in the legislature. Ranil Wickremesinghe adopted severe austerity measures, with support from the IMF.

New leaders

Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s inept governance and his decision to leave the country tarred the image of the Rajapaksa clan and the SLPP the most. Most SLPP MPs are supporting either Ranil or Sajith in this election. Namal Rajapaksa, they say, is just a symbolic candidate to keep the SLPP alive.

Sajith’s SJB has the support of the Tamil and Muslim minorities, who form 11% and 9% of the population.

Though Tamil parties have fielded a common candidate, the largest party ITAK (Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi) has extended its support to Sajith Premadasa. In 2019 also, Tamils had voted for Sajith but there was an unprecedented consolidation of Sinhala votes behind Gotabhaya Rajapaksa after the Easter bombings, which helped him win the election.

The political space created by Rajapaksas’ dismissal was filled by Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the JVP, who urged Sri Lankans to go for a broader change. Once in the margins, the party has emerged as a credible, major political force.

As far as Ranil Wickremesinghe is concerned, most members of his party UNP are now with Sajith, though he has support from some legislators of the SLPP like state Defence Minister Premitha Bandara Tennakoon. Ranil is banking on his handling of the economic crisis to fetch him votes.

“People want change this time. They don’t want to vote for the same party and old candidates. The new voters, especially on social media, are rooting for Anura Dissanayake. However, on the ground Sajith has a lot of support base, especially in the rural areas,” says Thushara Gooneratne, editor-in-chief, Mawrata News.

“Most people think of Sajith as pro-poor just like his father, former President R Premadasa.”

India’s Stake

In recent times, anti-India sentiment has surged in the neighbourhood, because of various reasons. Be it Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka or Bangladesh, politicians have been successful in diverting the people’s ire towards India.

For India, the sorry plight of the Tamil population in the north and east of Sri Lanka has been a concern for a long time. Successive Lankan governments have failed to implement the 13th Amendment signed as part of India-Sri Lanka agreement in 1987, which provided for devolution of powers to local governments in the north and the east. India, in fact, raised the Sri Lankan Tamil issue at the 51st session of the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva in 2022. With the new government, India would like to push for the restoration of provincial councils, which would give a measure of autonomy to Lankan Tamils.

India has stakes in a stable and peaceful Sri Lanka. It wants to restrict China’s growing interference in the country because of its geo-strategic location in the Indo-Pacific. The 99-year lease of Hambantota port to China in 2017, feeding the debt-trap narrative, has exacerbated India’s concerns.

Anura Dissanayake’s party has often been seen as close to China, India’s principal geopolitical rival. But for some time now, Dissanayake has enjoyed a different kind of authority within Sri Lankan politics, which has in turn earned him recognition as a rising political force even from India’s point of view. As a reflection of this, New Delhi invited Dissanayake in February to engage with him.

“Whoever wins this time will engage with India. Sajith is pro-India. But even Dissanayake, who was known to be anti-India before. India is important for Sri Lanka’s growth and stability,” says Thushara.

India needs all the goodwill it can command in order to navigate the increasing complexities in the neighbourhood, The escalating regional conflicts and a continuous shift in the global economic order. A friendly, stable neighbourhood is a good start.

Sajith Premadasa, leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya, party gestures as he arrives at the Election Commission in Rajagiriya to submit his nomination papers for the upcoming presidential election, scheduled for September 21, in Colombo, Sri Lanka. File.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

The Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), a prominent political party representing Tamils of Sri Lanka’s north and east, on Sunday (September 1) pledged support for presidential aspirant Sajith Premadasa in the September 21 election.

The move, which reflects one significant position within the island nation’s fragmented Tamil polity, comes even as the ITAK’s former coalition partners — along with other political groups — back former parliamentarian and ITAK member P. Ariyanethiran as a “common Tamil candidate” in the presidential race, in which incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Mr. Premadasa, and opposition politician Anura Kumara Dissanayake have emerged as key contenders.

Also read: Prominent Tamil party in Sri Lanka seeks governance structure based on federal model

The central committee of ITAK met on Sunday and decided the party will not back Mr. Ariyanethiran, instead announcing its support for Mr. Premadasa, who Tamils voted for in large numbers in the 2019 presidential election, principally to reject Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Further, ITAK sources said the party would request Mr. Ariyanethiran to withdraw from the race, to arrest the apparent divisions within the Tamil electorate.

The ITAK was the chief constituent of the former Tamil National Alliance (TNA), a formidable grouping representing Tamils of the north and east in parliament. The TNA collapsed in recent years amid differences among members. The ITAK, too, is grappling with internal differences that have only aggravated after senior party member and noted Tamil leader R. Sampanthan passed away in July.

Also read: Veteran Sri Lankan Tamil leader Sampanthan passes away

The ITAK’s position on the presidential polls was awaited by many, especially in the wake of party member and legislator S. Shritharan recently endorsing the “common candidate”. His party and parliamentary colleague M.A. Sumanthiran, meanwhile, has termed the idea of fielding a Tamil candidate a “nonsensical one”, arguing that the move would weaken Tamils’ bargaining power with the winning candidate, who will invariably be a contestant from the island’s southern, Sinhala-Buddhist majority.

Tamil voters are faced with different positions of their political leadership, ranging from backing a Tamil candidate, or a preferred Sinhalese leader, or boycotting the elections, as the All Ceylon Tamil Congress has decided to, protesting the many failed promises of past leaders.  

Following the ITAK’s announcement, Mr. Premadasa said on social media platform X: “Together, we’ll create a future where everyone wins — a future with no racism, no discrimination and a future built on unity, strength, and shared purpose.”

Mr. Premadasa, who released his manifesto last week, has pledged a new constitution where Sri Lanka’s current political system would be converted to a parliamentary system “with maximum devolution based on the 13th Amendment under one country”. The contentious 13^th Amendment, which assures a measure of power devolution to Sri Lanka’s nine provinces, was passed in 1987 following the Indo-Lanka Accord. It is yet to see full implementation in nearly four decades. Successive Sri Lankan leaders have refused to part especially with land and police powers although many Tamil leaders see the legislation as inadequate for meaningful power-sharing.