A Sri Lankan polling officer carries a ballot box as he leaves for his designated polling booth in Colombo on September 20, 2024, on the eve of the country’s presidential election.
| Photo Credit: AP

Sri Lanka’s ninth Presidential election, which is slated for September 21, is being held under strange circumstances for more than one reason.

The country is going to the polls two years after the country witnessed a tumultuous political revolt preceded by an acute economic crisis. Even in 1953, the rising cost of living, drove the then Prime Minister Dudley Senanayake to step down, after the Left’s massive hartal. But his successor, John Kotelawala, assumed office under much less painful conditions than what Ranil Wickremesinghe faced in July 2022 when Mr. Wickremesinghe became President.

Editorial | ​Back from the brink: On the Sri Lankan elections and the road ahead

This election also marks a churning that has taken place in the political arena. The United National Party (UNP), one of the established and traditional parties alongside the now-marginalised Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), is not in the race, even though its leader, Mr. Wickremesinghe is in the fray as an independent, hoping to draw support from a broader political constituency. While the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) dislodged the SLFP as a principal player in the 2018 local authorities’ elections, the UNP’s decline was apparent in the 2020 parliamentary elections when the party could obtain only one out of 225 seats, this too in an indirect way, i.e., the National List. Just as the SLPP has walked away with a substantial portion of the SLFP’s vote base, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), led by Sajith Premadasa, has done it for the UNP.

Apart from Mr. Wickremesinghe and Mr. Premadasa, there is one more key contender in the fray — Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the home-grown Lefitist party, Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP).

One of the curious elements of the election is that the SLPP, after the 2022 popular uprising, is being viewed as a marginal player. It remains a subject of debate on who the major beneficiary would be in the event of the SLPP’s votebase eroding substantially. There is a perception that the JVP has reaped the political dividend out of the uprising.

The Tamil factor

There is every likelihood, this time, of the minorities, especially Tamils (those in the north and the east, and in the hill country) not voting en bloc for any one of the principal candidates. This is essentially because of divisions among Tamil parties in rallying behind a particular candidate. Both Mr. Wickremesinghe and Mr. Premadasa are banking on the support of certain Tamil parties. It is for the first time in the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Katchi’s (ITAK) history that party member, P. Ariyanenthiran, has entered the presidential fray, even though prominent Tamil figures had contested the elections earlier. But, Mr Ariyenthiran’s presence, as a “common” and independent Tamil candidate, does not seem to have the full support of his party.

Under the circumstances, it is to be seen whether Mr. Premadasa will repeat what he did in 2019 by bagging 70% of votes polled in the six electoral districts, where ethnic minorities are dominant. (Last time, when as the UNP’s nominee, he secured about 42% of votes across the country.) In fact, in the 2015 presidential election, the victory of Maithripala Sirisena against the formidable and incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa, was attributed, among others, to the huge support that he got in the Tamil-speaking areas.

One of the striking features of the 2019 presidential election was that Gotabaya Rajapaksa of the SLPP had demonstrated that success was possible without much support from the Tamils and Muslims. Yet, this time, no important candidate has chosen to ignore them. Namal Rajapaksa, Mahinda Rajapaksa’s son and SLPP candidate, is talking of transforming the Jaffna peninsula into a “thriving technology and business hub” like the Silicon Valley. All this is due to the realisation that securing more than 50% of the vote is a huge challenge.

Candidate profiles

Mr. Wickremesinghe, 75, knows well that he cannot get a better chance to retain the post which he got under extraordinary circumstances — this point is being used to criticise him for not having become the President the “legitimate way”. Though no one is arguing that all economic woes have become a thing of the past, the Sri Lankan’s economy is showing signs of stability, thanks to a host of factors including the initial support provided by India and the implementation of an economic recovery programme supported by the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Wickremesinghe deserves credit for achieving what he has done, as both Mr. Premadasa and Mr. Dissanayake turned down the offer made by Gotabaya Rajapaksa to form an interim government in early 2022 amid the economic crisis before Mr. Wickremesinghe became Prime Minister. But, the problem for him is that he does not have the support of a principal political force any longer.

Mr. Sajith, though bereft of the charisma of Mahinda Rajapaksa or the stature of Mr. Wickremesinghe, has, been able to keep his flock together for the last five years, a feat that even the more charming Gamini Dissanayake could not do in the early 1990s after leaving the UNP. Dissanayake eventually returned to his parent party. As for the JVP’s chief, it will be a huge jump if he is able to net 25%-30% as neither he nor his formation crossed even the 4% mark in the previous presidential and general elections. It is to be seen whether the ‘element of strangeness’ will be evident in the result too.

ramakrishnan.t@thehindu.co.in

The political landscape in Sri Lanka is set to change as its citizens elect a new President on Saturday. Sri Lanka’s 17 million voters will choose from among 39 candidates in the country’s first election after the people’s uprising of 2022, which led to then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s ouster.

This year’s election is dominated by two major alliances, the SJB (Samagi Jana Balawegaya) and the NPP (National People’s Power), apart from various smaller parties and independent candidates.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe of the UNP (United National Party) is contesting as an independent. Wickremesinghe, popularly known as RW, is being supported by many rebel legislators of the SLPP (Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna) headed by former president Mahinda Rajapaksa. Also in the contest are opposition leader Sajith Premadasa from the SJB alliance; leftist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna) – the presidential candidate of NPP – and Mahinda’s son, Namal Rajapaksa, as the SLPP candidate.

Poll surveys and experts suggest that Lankan voters are prioritising issues such as economy, education, health, law, and security. Matters of corruption and wrongdoing among politicians, which dominated the electoral narrative, have receded into the background after the 2022 unrest. Since most governments in the past didn’t solve the corruption issue, people feel it’s better to talk about development. They hope to elect a leader who can pull them out of dire poverty.

Gloomy past

In the last election, held after the Easter bombings on April 21, 2019, Gotabaya Rajapaksa of SLPP (Namal’s uncle) won a decisive victory and Sajith Premadasa came second. However, three years later, the world saw Sri Lankans oust President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, having endured a steady economic slide. The flawed economic and monetary policies of Gotabaya, along with the COVID-19 pandemic that dented tourism – a chunk of the economy – resulted in an unsustainable debt level. In April 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt and asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance. The Russia-Ukraine war further aggravated the crisis with rising food, medicine and fuel prices resulting in mass protests never seen before in the country’s history.

The uprising was given the name of ‘Janatha Aragalaya‘ (a Sinhala term). Then Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned and subsequently, his brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa quit as President and fled. Ranil Wickremesinghe, a former minister, became Prime Minister. In July 2022, Ranil took over as president through a parliamentary vote with the support of the Rajapaksas’ party SLPP, which still has the majority in the legislature. Ranil Wickremesinghe adopted severe austerity measures, with support from the IMF.

New leaders

Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s inept governance and his decision to leave the country tarred the image of the Rajapaksa clan and the SLPP the most. Most SLPP MPs are supporting either Ranil or Sajith in this election. Namal Rajapaksa, they say, is just a symbolic candidate to keep the SLPP alive.

Sajith’s SJB has the support of the Tamil and Muslim minorities, who form 11% and 9% of the population.

Though Tamil parties have fielded a common candidate, the largest party ITAK (Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi) has extended its support to Sajith Premadasa. In 2019 also, Tamils had voted for Sajith but there was an unprecedented consolidation of Sinhala votes behind Gotabhaya Rajapaksa after the Easter bombings, which helped him win the election.

The political space created by Rajapaksas’ dismissal was filled by Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the JVP, who urged Sri Lankans to go for a broader change. Once in the margins, the party has emerged as a credible, major political force.

As far as Ranil Wickremesinghe is concerned, most members of his party UNP are now with Sajith, though he has support from some legislators of the SLPP like state Defence Minister Premitha Bandara Tennakoon. Ranil is banking on his handling of the economic crisis to fetch him votes.

“People want change this time. They don’t want to vote for the same party and old candidates. The new voters, especially on social media, are rooting for Anura Dissanayake. However, on the ground Sajith has a lot of support base, especially in the rural areas,” says Thushara Gooneratne, editor-in-chief, Mawrata News.

“Most people think of Sajith as pro-poor just like his father, former President R Premadasa.”

India’s Stake

In recent times, anti-India sentiment has surged in the neighbourhood, because of various reasons. Be it Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka or Bangladesh, politicians have been successful in diverting the people’s ire towards India.

For India, the sorry plight of the Tamil population in the north and east of Sri Lanka has been a concern for a long time. Successive Lankan governments have failed to implement the 13th Amendment signed as part of India-Sri Lanka agreement in 1987, which provided for devolution of powers to local governments in the north and the east. India, in fact, raised the Sri Lankan Tamil issue at the 51st session of the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva in 2022. With the new government, India would like to push for the restoration of provincial councils, which would give a measure of autonomy to Lankan Tamils.

India has stakes in a stable and peaceful Sri Lanka. It wants to restrict China’s growing interference in the country because of its geo-strategic location in the Indo-Pacific. The 99-year lease of Hambantota port to China in 2017, feeding the debt-trap narrative, has exacerbated India’s concerns.

Anura Dissanayake’s party has often been seen as close to China, India’s principal geopolitical rival. But for some time now, Dissanayake has enjoyed a different kind of authority within Sri Lankan politics, which has in turn earned him recognition as a rising political force even from India’s point of view. As a reflection of this, New Delhi invited Dissanayake in February to engage with him.

“Whoever wins this time will engage with India. Sajith is pro-India. But even Dissanayake, who was known to be anti-India before. India is important for Sri Lanka’s growth and stability,” says Thushara.

India needs all the goodwill it can command in order to navigate the increasing complexities in the neighbourhood, The escalating regional conflicts and a continuous shift in the global economic order. A friendly, stable neighbourhood is a good start.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe gestures as he arrives at the Election Commission in Rajagiriya to submit his nomination papers for the upcoming Presidential election, scheduled for September 21, in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on August 15, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe, the front runner in the Presidential poll scheduled for next month, was on Friday (August 16, 2024) endorsed by a grand coalition of more than 30 political parties and groups.

This comes after Mr. Wickremesinghe (75) announced himself as the independent candidate on Thursday (August 15, 2024) by handing over nominations to contest the September 21 Presidential election.

Election crucial for Sri Lanka’s future: President Ranil Wickremesinghe

Ranil Wickremesinghe, the leader of the now decimated grand old party, the United National Party (UNP), is backed by the Rajapaksa family breakaways from the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP).

Mr. Wickremesinghe was elected as the stop-gap President after then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa was ousted in a popular uprising following his inability to handle the country’s unprecedented economic crisis that led to a shortage of essential commodities.

The SLPP of the Rajapaksas provided Mr. Wickremesinghe with Parliamentary support to become the President but did not approve of the incumbent President’s hard reforms to revive the bankrupt economy. The SLPP has fielded the heir apparent of the dynasty Namal Rajapaksa (38) against him.

Mr. Wickremesinghe, who initiated a hard reform programme led by the International Monetary Fund, took upon reviving the economy with the support from his SLPP-dominated Cabinet.

Explained | The political career of Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe

“I’m thankful to those who supported me to handle this difficult task. They did not run away when challenged to perform the responsibilities of the country,” Mr. Wickremesinghe, also the Finance Minister, said.

Mr. Wickremesinghe, since being elected, implemented hard economic reforms as necessitated by the IMF to secure a bail-out of nearly $3 billion over four years.

His hard reforms brought in stability although the Opposition said the economic hardships caused by the IMF deal had left the public in the lurch. The Opposition has vowed to renegotiate the IMF programme to provide relief to the public.

Mr. Wickremesinghe’s main rivals are once his deputy Sajith Premadasa and the leader of the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) Anura Kumara Dissanayake.

There have been several individuals who changed loyalties to Mr. Wickremesinghe and Premadasa and vice-versa since the election was announced by the island nation’s independent election commission.

The Rajapaksas’ political party met on Monday to discuss strategy ahead of Sri Lanka’s presidential polls.
| Photo Credit: Special Arrangement

The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP or People’s Front) — led by the once-powerful Rajapaksa clan which was deposed from power in 2022 — has said it will not back President Ranil Wickremesinghe in the presidential polls in September.

The decision, announced after the party’s central committee’s meeting on Monday, marks the withdrawal of the Rajapaksas’ support to Mr. Wickremesinghe, two years after they helped him rise to the country’s most powerful office. He replaced former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who resigned in July 2022, in the wake of a mass uprising that blamed him chiefly for the country’s dramatic economic crash.

Ranil Wickremesinghe | From lone MP to PM 

In 2021, Mr. Wickremesinghe was the United National Party’s (UNP) lone MP in parliament, following his party’s poll debacle in the 2020 general election. In May 2022, Mr. Gotabaya appointed him Prime Minister, in place of Mr. Mahinda, who resigned amid the surging protests. After Mr. Gotabaya stepped down in July 2022, Mr. Wickremesinghe won an urgent parliamentary vote with the SLPP’s support, and has since relied on it to pass several legislations.

While Mr. Wickremesinghe earned praise from some for taking over the country’s leadership at a critical time, and “stabilising” its battered economy, his dependence on and association with the Rajapaksas have drawn criticism from those who sought a clean break from the Rajapaksa administration tainted by allegations of corruption and mismanagement. In November 2023, Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court ruled that the Rajapaksa brothers (Mr. Mahinda, Mr. Gotabaya and Mr. Basil), along with other top officials in their government [2019 to 2022] “demonstrably contributed to” the country’s devastating economic crisis and violated “public trust”, but they faced no consequence.

On their party’s poll-time decision, SLPP General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam said Mr. Wickremesinghe’s policies were not agreeable to members. “For instance, our party has a position on whether and how to go about privatising national assets. But the President does not care about national assets or the underprivileged people of this country,” he told The Hindu on Tuesday.  Asked about the candidate the party would field, Mr. Kariyawasam said: “That decision has not been taken as yet,” amid wide speculation that a non-Rajapaksa may be nominated for the first time.

Meanwhile, some SLPP members, especially those who are part of Mr. Wickremesinghe’s Cabinet, are expected to stay with him in the coming election, signalling a virtual split in the SLPP.  

Namal Rajapaksa, son of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and the party’s national organiser, has blamed Mr. Wickremesinghe for dividing the party that backed him over the last two years. Following Monday’s decision, Mr. Namal, a parliamentarian from the southern Hambantota district, said on the social media platform ‘X’: “With our decision to field our own candidate, we acknowledge past challenges and commit to unity, economic stability, and restoring trust.”  

For now, this leaves Mr. Wickremesinghe with what remains of his UNP —its breakaway faction, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB or United People’s Force), is the main opposition party — a faction of the SLPP, and certain other backers, including from parties representing the island nation’s minority Tamils, Muslims, and Malaiyaha (hill country) Tamils. Contesting this election as an independent candidate, Mr. Wickremesinghe faces at least two strong challengers in Leader of Opposition Sajith Premadasa, and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who leads the opposition National People’s Power (NPP) alliance.

In a media statement on Tuesday evening, the President’s office said 92 legislators, of the 225-member House, pledged their support to him.