Washington DC:

Donald Trump has sniffed trouble brewing afar against the United States – one that may topple the US’s position as a dominant global power and end Washington’s ability to impose economic sanctions against those it deems fit for the case. The storm in question is the steadily-expanding BRICS+ grouping.

Within hours of taking office as President of the United States, Donald Trump went after the BRICS+, threatening to impose 100 per cent tariffs on member countries. The reason Washington feels threatened by the grouping is because it makes the US dollar, America’s greatest weapon – one it can actually use, vulnerable.

In recent times there have been reports of a possibility of the BRICS+ nations working on a common currency which would replace the US dollar for international trade. The founding members of the BRICS are Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – the acronym of which is BRICS. Over the years, several other countries have become members of the bloc, namely Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Indonesia. Saudi Arabia has accepted the membership, but has not formally joined yet, saying that the matter is under consideration.

BRICS+, which is shaping up to be the developing world’s alternative to the West-led G7, has set up its own financial structure and institutions, and is cooperating economically and diplomatically to reduce its dependence on the US Dollar – the default currency for international trade.

Donald Trump has now said his administration will impose 100 per cent tariffs against countries of the BRICS+ bloc, should they take any steps to replace the US dollar. “If the BRICS nations want to do that (replace the US dollar), that’s okay, but we’re going to put at least a 100 per cent tariff on the business they do with the United States,” President Trump told the international media shortly after his presidential inauguration.

“They will have a 100 per cent tariff if they so much as even think about reducing the use of the US Dollar in global trade,” he threatened.

Less than a month before he took office, Mr Trump had made a similar reference warning the BRICS+ countries. “We require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new BRICS currency, nor back any other currency to replace the mighty US dollar or, they will face 100 per cent tariffs and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful US economy,” Donald Trump, then President-elect, had warned in December.

HOW THE US DOLLAR IS WEAPONISED IN SANCTIONS

The US Dollar, has for decades, been the world’s principal reserve currency. It has been the case since the Second World War, following which global institutions like the United Nations, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, among many others were set up. All these institutions were set up in the United States – And America being the largest trading country of the world at that time led to US Dollar becoming the default currency for global trade.

In 1973, a new system was set up to moderate international transactions. This system is known as SWIFT, which is short for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. Since then, this has become the world’s commonly accepted and standardised model for international money transfers.

According to its website, SWIFT is a member-owned cooperative connecting more than 11,000 banks, financial institutions and corporations in more than 200 countries and territories. SWIFT is neither a payment nor a settlement system, and is therefore is not regulated as such by any of the world’s central banks.

SWIFT is overseen by the central banks of G10 nations – namely, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, The Netherlands, United Kingdom, United States, Switzerland, and Sweden.

Since the US Dollar is the default currency of trade globally, and SWIFT is the method or channel of settlement, sanctions are imposed by controlling these two. Sanctions are imposed via SWIFT by restricting access to the network or completely prohibiting individuals, institutions, and countries from using its services. When sanctions are imposed, it completely freezes an account and restricts any further transactions from it.

SWIFT sanctions can freeze any bank’s ability to transact with the rest of the world. Under an international rules-based order, much of the global financial governance is dominated by the US-led West.

MULTI-POLAR WORLD

In the 21st Century, with the rise of Asia, and economies like China, India, Russia, Indonesia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and others, the world has become much more multi-polar, instead of being bipolar – which was the case during the Cold War between the US and USSR through much of the 20th Century, post the two world wars in the first half of the century.

Brazil in South America and South Africa in Africa were also rising global economies.

With time, emerging economies became increasingly disgruntled with the dominance of the US Dollar being the default in almost all global transactions. This also kept them under a constant threat of Western sanctions, should they not two the line. To deal with this, BRICS leaders have for long reportedly advocated for de-dollarisation, and been in favor of increased trade in local currencies and even reportedly explored the possibility of a potential common BRICS currency.

The BRICS members have even set up the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement or CRA – which act and function exactly like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund or IMF, respectively.

The so-far 10-member BRICS+ grouping already comprises nearly half of the world’s population and over a third of the global economy. It also has more than 25 per cent of the world’s landmass, produces more than 30 per cent of the world’s oil output and is on track to surge ahead of the G7 economies in less than 20 years.
 

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At least 100 people who were mining illegally in an abandoned gold mine in South Africa have died after being trapped deep underground for months while police tried to get them out, a group representing the miners said on Monday.

Sabelo Mnguni, a spokesman for the Mining Affected Communities United in Action Group told AP that a mobile phone sent to the surface with some rescued miners on Friday had two videos on it showing dozens of bodies underground wrapped in plastic.

Mnguni said “a minimum” of 100 men had died in the mine in North West province where police first launched an operation in November to force the miners out. They were suspected to have died of starvation or dehydration, he said. He said 18 bodies have been brought out since Friday.

The story so far: South Africa’s top court on Monday barred former President Jacob Zuma from contesting in the upcoming elections. Mr. Zuma was forced to quit as the President of South Africa in 2018 after allegations of corruption. He was found guilty of contempt of court in 2021 and handed 15 months in prison, of which he only served two months. He is still on trial for corruption allegations.

Mr. Zuma was a member of the African National Congress (ANC) party when he was the President of South Africa. Following his resignation, Cyril Ramaphosa became the President.

Zuma’s comeback attempt and disqualification

In December 2023, Mr. Zuma announced that he would not be voting for the ANC. He is now the leader of a new party called uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) (means Spear of the Nation), named after the former paramilitary wing of the ANC. Following this, the ANC suspended his membership. “Former President Jacob Zuma is actively impugning the integrity of the ANC and campaigning to dislodge the ANC from power, while claiming that he has not terminated his membership. This conduct is irreconcilable with the spirit of organisational discipline and letter of the ANC Constitution,” the ANC said in a statement announcing Mr. Zuma’s suspension in January 2024.

However, on March 28, the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) announced that they had received an objection to Mr. Zuma’s candidature, which had been upheld. Although the IEC did not specify a reason, it reiterated the eligibility criteria for candidates to qualify for the presidential election, which, among other things, says that people convicted of an offence and sentenced to more than 12 months in prison are ineligible to contest in the election. Mr. Zuma’s 15-month sentence falls within this stipulated time period.

A court in South Africa overturned the disqualification, allowing Mr. Zuma to run for presidency. The court’s decision was challenged by the IEC, and on May 20, the Constitutional Court ruled in its favour and barred Mr. Zuma from contesting in the election. The Election Commission had approached the Constitutional Court to seek clarity on whether it had powers to enforce section 47(1) of the Constitution, which states that “anyone who…is convicted of an offence and sentenced to more than 12 months’ imprisonment without the option of a fine” is ineligible to contest in elections. The Constitution of South Africa also adds that “a disqualification under this paragraph ends five years after the sentence has been completed.”

What are the charges against Mr. Zuma?

Mr. Zuma was jailed on charges of contempt of court for refusing an order to appear before a probe into the charges of corruption that mired his nine-year presidency. Violence erupted in South Africa after the former President was imprisoned in July 2021, killing more than 300 people. The rioting by Mr. Zuma’s supporters first started in KwaZulu-Natal province and spread to other parts of the country, including Gauteng province, which has Johannesburg, South Africa’s largest city.

Mr. Zuma was released on medical parole two months later.

Mr. Zuma is also facing an ongoing trial on charges of corruption in a 1999 arms deal. Charges against him were dropped and reinstated multiple times over the last two decades.

Shortly after Mr. Zuma resigned from the post of President in 2018, he was charged with corruption over a $2.5 billion state arms deal. He was the deputy President at the time of the deal, and allegedly received bribes from a French defence equipment company through his financial adviser Schabir Shaik, who himself was jailed for 15 years in 2005 on charges of soliciting bribes on behalf of Mr. Zuma. Mr. Shaik was released on medical parole in 2009.

Apart from the arms deal, there are several other corruption allegations against Mr. Zuma. The Gupta family, headed by Ajay, Atul and Rajesh (‘Tony”) Gupta from Saharanpur, Uttar Pradesh, were at the heart of many allegations levelled against Mr. Zuma. In April 2023, the UAE rejected an extradition bid by South Africa to bring the brothers back to the country and prosecute them.

What do opinion polls say?

According to Gallup, the ANC could lose its majority in South Africa for the first time in 30 years— since 1994— when Apartheid was abolished. The party has enjoyed a majority in the country since Nelson Mandela became the President. It won almost 70% of votes in 2004, but the vote share has been declining since then. Corruption allegations, poor economic conditions, and rising unemployment are the main reasons why South Africans are losing their faith in the ANC.

“The coming elections may serve as a turning point for the nation if the ANC receives less than 50% of the vote, dropping the party out of the majority position it has held and necessitating negotiations to form a coalition government,” the survey noted.

Corruption charges against Mr. Zuma are not the only problem the ANC faces. Current President Ramaphosa has been embroiled in his own fair share of controversies, including allegations of misconduct and a violation of the Constitution he helped to draft in the 1990s.

In June 2022, Arthur Fraser, former state security head and ally of ex-President Zuma, filed a criminal complaint alleging that Mr. Ramaphosa had money in the range of $4 million to $8 million stolen from his northeastern Phala Phala game farm in February 2020, but never reported this theft. The President instead tasked a member of his personal protection unit to conduct an off-the-books investigation. The scandal was termed Farmgate by local media.

Another opinion poll conducted by Ipsos through interviews in March and April 2024 found that the ANC was struggling to retain voters. “Nationally, only 38% believe that the ANC will live up to their election promises, and the party’s support base has long been concentrated in rural areas,” the poll said.

South Africa goes to polls on May 29.

(With inputs from agencies)

As 72-year-old Nonki Kunene walks through the corridors of Thabisang Primary School in Soweto, South Africa, she recalls the joy she and many others felt 30 years ago when they voted for the first time.

It was at this school on April 27, 1994, that Kunene joined millions of South Africans to brave long queues and take part in the country’s first democratic elections after decades of white minority rule which denied Black people the right to vote.

The country is gearing up for celebrations Saturday to mark 30 years of freedom and democracy. But much of the enthusiasm and optimism of that period has subsided as Africa’s most developed economy faces a myriad of challenges.

Like many things in South Africa, the school that Kunene remembers has changed, and what used to be a school hall has now been turned into several classrooms.

“I somehow wish we could go back to that day, because of how excited I was and the things that happened thereafter,” said Kunene, referring to Nelson Mandela becoming the country’s first Black president and the introduction of a new constitution that afforded all South Africans equal rights, abolishing the racially discriminative system of apartheid.

For many who experienced apartheid, those years remain etched in their collective memory.

“I cannot forget how we suffered at the hands of whites. In the city at night, there were white bikers with hair like this (describing a mohawk-like hairstyle) who would brutally assault a Black person if they saw them walking on a pavement. Those white boys were cruel,” said 87-year-old Lily Makhanya, whose late husband died while working in the anti-apartheid movement’s underground structures.

“If they saw you walking on the pavement, you would be assaulted so badly and left for dead.”

For Makhanya and many others who stood in those queues to vote in 1994, it represented a turning point from a brutal past to the promise of a prosperous future.

But 30 years later, much of that optimism has evaporated amid the country’s pressing challenges. They include widening inequality as the country’s Black majority continues to live in poverty with an unemployment rate of more than 32%, the highest in the world.

According to official statistics, more than 16 million South Africans rely on monthly welfare grants for survival.

Public demonstrations have become common as communities protest against the ruling African National Congress’ failure to deliver job opportunities and basic services like water and electricity.

An electricity crisis that has resulted in power blackouts that are devastating the country’s economy added to the party’s woes as businesses and homes are sometimes forced to go without electricity for up to 12 hours a day.

Areas like the affluent Johannesburg suburb of Sandton, which hosts beautiful skyscrapers and luxurious homes, are an example of the economic success enjoyed by a minority of the country’s 60 million people.

But the township of Alexandra, which lies a few kilometers (miles) from Sandton, is a stark reflection of the living conditions of the country’s poor Black majority, where sewage from burst pipes flows on the streets and uncollected rubbish piles up on pavements.

Such contradictions are common across the major cities, including the capital Pretoria and the city of Cape Town, and they remain at the center of what is expected to be one of the country’s most fiercely contested elections in May.

For the first time since the ANC came to power in 1994, polls are indicating that the party might receive less than 50% of the national vote, which would see it lose power unless it manages to form a coalition with some smaller parties.

For some younger voters like 24-year-old Donald Mkhwanazi, the nostalgia does not resonate.

Mkhwanazi will be voting for the first time in the May 29 election and is now actively involved in campaigning for a new political party, Rise Mzansi, which will be contesting a national election for the first time.

“I had an opportunity to vote in 2019, and in local elections in 2021, but I did not because I was not persuaded enough by any of these old parties about why I should vote,” he said.

“I didn’t see the need to vote because of what has been happening over the past 30 years. We talk about freedom, but are we free from crime, are we free from poverty? What freedom is this that we are talking about?”

Political analyst Pearl Mncube said South Africans are justified in feeling failed by their leaders.

“More and more South Africans have grown skeptical of pronouncements from government due to its history of continuously announcing grand plans without prioritizing the swift execution of said plans,” Mncube said.

She said while Freedom Day is meant to signify the country’s transition from an oppressive past, it was important to highlight current problems and plans to overcome them.

“We cannot use the past, and any nostalgia attached to it, to avoid accounting for the present,” she said.