The story so far: South Africa’s top court on Monday barred former President Jacob Zuma from contesting in the upcoming elections. Mr. Zuma was forced to quit as the President of South Africa in 2018 after allegations of corruption. He was found guilty of contempt of court in 2021 and handed 15 months in prison, of which he only served two months. He is still on trial for corruption allegations.

Mr. Zuma was a member of the African National Congress (ANC) party when he was the President of South Africa. Following his resignation, Cyril Ramaphosa became the President.

Zuma’s comeback attempt and disqualification

In December 2023, Mr. Zuma announced that he would not be voting for the ANC. He is now the leader of a new party called uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) (means Spear of the Nation), named after the former paramilitary wing of the ANC. Following this, the ANC suspended his membership. “Former President Jacob Zuma is actively impugning the integrity of the ANC and campaigning to dislodge the ANC from power, while claiming that he has not terminated his membership. This conduct is irreconcilable with the spirit of organisational discipline and letter of the ANC Constitution,” the ANC said in a statement announcing Mr. Zuma’s suspension in January 2024.

However, on March 28, the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) announced that they had received an objection to Mr. Zuma’s candidature, which had been upheld. Although the IEC did not specify a reason, it reiterated the eligibility criteria for candidates to qualify for the presidential election, which, among other things, says that people convicted of an offence and sentenced to more than 12 months in prison are ineligible to contest in the election. Mr. Zuma’s 15-month sentence falls within this stipulated time period.

A court in South Africa overturned the disqualification, allowing Mr. Zuma to run for presidency. The court’s decision was challenged by the IEC, and on May 20, the Constitutional Court ruled in its favour and barred Mr. Zuma from contesting in the election. The Election Commission had approached the Constitutional Court to seek clarity on whether it had powers to enforce section 47(1) of the Constitution, which states that “anyone who…is convicted of an offence and sentenced to more than 12 months’ imprisonment without the option of a fine” is ineligible to contest in elections. The Constitution of South Africa also adds that “a disqualification under this paragraph ends five years after the sentence has been completed.”

What are the charges against Mr. Zuma?

Mr. Zuma was jailed on charges of contempt of court for refusing an order to appear before a probe into the charges of corruption that mired his nine-year presidency. Violence erupted in South Africa after the former President was imprisoned in July 2021, killing more than 300 people. The rioting by Mr. Zuma’s supporters first started in KwaZulu-Natal province and spread to other parts of the country, including Gauteng province, which has Johannesburg, South Africa’s largest city.

Mr. Zuma was released on medical parole two months later.

Mr. Zuma is also facing an ongoing trial on charges of corruption in a 1999 arms deal. Charges against him were dropped and reinstated multiple times over the last two decades.

Shortly after Mr. Zuma resigned from the post of President in 2018, he was charged with corruption over a $2.5 billion state arms deal. He was the deputy President at the time of the deal, and allegedly received bribes from a French defence equipment company through his financial adviser Schabir Shaik, who himself was jailed for 15 years in 2005 on charges of soliciting bribes on behalf of Mr. Zuma. Mr. Shaik was released on medical parole in 2009.

Apart from the arms deal, there are several other corruption allegations against Mr. Zuma. The Gupta family, headed by Ajay, Atul and Rajesh (‘Tony”) Gupta from Saharanpur, Uttar Pradesh, were at the heart of many allegations levelled against Mr. Zuma. In April 2023, the UAE rejected an extradition bid by South Africa to bring the brothers back to the country and prosecute them.

What do opinion polls say?

According to Gallup, the ANC could lose its majority in South Africa for the first time in 30 years— since 1994— when Apartheid was abolished. The party has enjoyed a majority in the country since Nelson Mandela became the President. It won almost 70% of votes in 2004, but the vote share has been declining since then. Corruption allegations, poor economic conditions, and rising unemployment are the main reasons why South Africans are losing their faith in the ANC.

“The coming elections may serve as a turning point for the nation if the ANC receives less than 50% of the vote, dropping the party out of the majority position it has held and necessitating negotiations to form a coalition government,” the survey noted.

Corruption charges against Mr. Zuma are not the only problem the ANC faces. Current President Ramaphosa has been embroiled in his own fair share of controversies, including allegations of misconduct and a violation of the Constitution he helped to draft in the 1990s.

In June 2022, Arthur Fraser, former state security head and ally of ex-President Zuma, filed a criminal complaint alleging that Mr. Ramaphosa had money in the range of $4 million to $8 million stolen from his northeastern Phala Phala game farm in February 2020, but never reported this theft. The President instead tasked a member of his personal protection unit to conduct an off-the-books investigation. The scandal was termed Farmgate by local media.

Another opinion poll conducted by Ipsos through interviews in March and April 2024 found that the ANC was struggling to retain voters. “Nationally, only 38% believe that the ANC will live up to their election promises, and the party’s support base has long been concentrated in rural areas,” the poll said.

South Africa goes to polls on May 29.

(With inputs from agencies)

As 72-year-old Nonki Kunene walks through the corridors of Thabisang Primary School in Soweto, South Africa, she recalls the joy she and many others felt 30 years ago when they voted for the first time.

It was at this school on April 27, 1994, that Kunene joined millions of South Africans to brave long queues and take part in the country’s first democratic elections after decades of white minority rule which denied Black people the right to vote.

The country is gearing up for celebrations Saturday to mark 30 years of freedom and democracy. But much of the enthusiasm and optimism of that period has subsided as Africa’s most developed economy faces a myriad of challenges.

Like many things in South Africa, the school that Kunene remembers has changed, and what used to be a school hall has now been turned into several classrooms.

“I somehow wish we could go back to that day, because of how excited I was and the things that happened thereafter,” said Kunene, referring to Nelson Mandela becoming the country’s first Black president and the introduction of a new constitution that afforded all South Africans equal rights, abolishing the racially discriminative system of apartheid.

For many who experienced apartheid, those years remain etched in their collective memory.

“I cannot forget how we suffered at the hands of whites. In the city at night, there were white bikers with hair like this (describing a mohawk-like hairstyle) who would brutally assault a Black person if they saw them walking on a pavement. Those white boys were cruel,” said 87-year-old Lily Makhanya, whose late husband died while working in the anti-apartheid movement’s underground structures.

“If they saw you walking on the pavement, you would be assaulted so badly and left for dead.”

For Makhanya and many others who stood in those queues to vote in 1994, it represented a turning point from a brutal past to the promise of a prosperous future.

But 30 years later, much of that optimism has evaporated amid the country’s pressing challenges. They include widening inequality as the country’s Black majority continues to live in poverty with an unemployment rate of more than 32%, the highest in the world.

According to official statistics, more than 16 million South Africans rely on monthly welfare grants for survival.

Public demonstrations have become common as communities protest against the ruling African National Congress’ failure to deliver job opportunities and basic services like water and electricity.

An electricity crisis that has resulted in power blackouts that are devastating the country’s economy added to the party’s woes as businesses and homes are sometimes forced to go without electricity for up to 12 hours a day.

Areas like the affluent Johannesburg suburb of Sandton, which hosts beautiful skyscrapers and luxurious homes, are an example of the economic success enjoyed by a minority of the country’s 60 million people.

But the township of Alexandra, which lies a few kilometers (miles) from Sandton, is a stark reflection of the living conditions of the country’s poor Black majority, where sewage from burst pipes flows on the streets and uncollected rubbish piles up on pavements.

Such contradictions are common across the major cities, including the capital Pretoria and the city of Cape Town, and they remain at the center of what is expected to be one of the country’s most fiercely contested elections in May.

For the first time since the ANC came to power in 1994, polls are indicating that the party might receive less than 50% of the national vote, which would see it lose power unless it manages to form a coalition with some smaller parties.

For some younger voters like 24-year-old Donald Mkhwanazi, the nostalgia does not resonate.

Mkhwanazi will be voting for the first time in the May 29 election and is now actively involved in campaigning for a new political party, Rise Mzansi, which will be contesting a national election for the first time.

“I had an opportunity to vote in 2019, and in local elections in 2021, but I did not because I was not persuaded enough by any of these old parties about why I should vote,” he said.

“I didn’t see the need to vote because of what has been happening over the past 30 years. We talk about freedom, but are we free from crime, are we free from poverty? What freedom is this that we are talking about?”

Political analyst Pearl Mncube said South Africans are justified in feeling failed by their leaders.

“More and more South Africans have grown skeptical of pronouncements from government due to its history of continuously announcing grand plans without prioritizing the swift execution of said plans,” Mncube said.

She said while Freedom Day is meant to signify the country’s transition from an oppressive past, it was important to highlight current problems and plans to overcome them.

“We cannot use the past, and any nostalgia attached to it, to avoid accounting for the present,” she said.