Mumbai:

Resort politics has made a comeback in Maharashtra, as has the possibility of cross-voting and horsetrading, as the state gears up to hold elections for 11 Legislative Council seats on Friday. Riding high after its unexpectedly good performance in the Lok Sabha polls, in which it won 30 of the state’s 48 seats, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi has fielded three candidates, one more than it has the numbers to elect, necessitating the election.

The Maharashtra Assembly, which has 288 seats, currently has 274 members, meaning that every MLC candidate needs 23 first-preference votes to get elected. The ruling Mahayuti – part of the larger NDA alliance – which consists of the BJP, the Eknath Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar wing of the NCP, has fielded nine candidates and has 201 MLAs, including Independents and smaller parties, backing it. 

The Maha Vikas Aghadi, which is under the INDIA umbrella, has the Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) as its key constituents and has put up three candidates despite having the support of only 67 MLAs. Six MLAs, including an independent, are neutral and may end up playing a key role in the elections because 12 candidates are now vying for 11 Lok Sabha seats. 

What makes the exercise interesting, apart from the numbers game, is its timing – just after the Lok Sabha elections and months ahead of the Assembly polls in the state – which has led to it being dubbed a semi-final. This is also only the second time that elections will be held in Maharashtra’s unique political environment, where the split of two regional parties has led to two Shiv Senas and two NCPs – under very similar but different names – being pitted against each other. 

The Lok Sabha polls were the first round and parties from both sides are now pulling out all stops to ensure that they come out tops in the second. After Ajit Pawar’s NCP won just one Lok Sabha seat, there has been a strong buzz that MLAs from his party are looking to jump ship and return to the faction of the party led by Sharad Pawar. Their support is what may have given the opposition the confidence to field a third candidate.

Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray, who triggered the need for the election by fielding his close aide, Milind Narvekar, had said, “We would not be doing it (fielding a third candidate) if we had not been confident of winning.”

How The Numbers Stack Up – Mahayuti

The BJP, which has 103 MLAs, has fielded five candidates – Pankaja Munde, Yogesh Tilekar, Parinay Phuke, Amit Gorkhe and Sadabhau Khot – which means that it is 12 MLAs short of the number it needs to get them elected.

The Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led faction of the Shiv Sena has 37 members in the Assembly and has put up two candidates – Krupal Tumane and Bhawana Gawli. It is nine MLAs short.

The faction of the NCP led by Ajit Pawar has 39 MLAs and has two candidates in the fray,  Rajesh Vitekar and Shivajirao Garje, falling seven short of the 46 votes needed to get them elected. 

The ruling coalition is, however, banking on nine MLAs from smaller parties and 13 Independents to see it through. 

How The Numbers Stack Up – Maha Vikas Aghadi

The Congress, with 37 MLAs and one candidate, Pradyna Satav, is the only party with 14 surplus votes. Sharad Pawar’s NCP, with its 13 MLAs, is supporting the Peasants and Workers Party (PWP’s) Jayant Patil. 

Former chief minister Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena has put up Mr Narve as a candidate despite having just 15 MLAs, eight short of the figure it needs. 

The Congress votes may make up for the shortfall faced by Mr Patil and Mr Narve but the votes of the AIMIM’s two MLAs, the SP’s two, the CPI(M)’s lone MLA and one Independent – all of whom are seen to be neutral – will be key. The Congress has claimed the coalition has the support of at least some of these MLAs

MLAs In Hotels

Leader of Opposition in the Assembly, Vijay Wadettiwar of the Congress, organised a dinner meeting for his party MLAs at a hotel in Mumbai on Thursday night. The Congress has issued a whip to its MLAs asking them to vote for candidates of the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Exact instructions, given the surplus votes, will be issued just before voting begins, reported news agency PTI. 

Uddhav Thackeray held a dinner interaction with his MLAs at a five-star hotel in central Mumbai on Wednesday night. All 11 MLAs who attended the meeting stayed back at the hotel, where they were joined by the four remaining legislators on Thursday, said a party leader. 

Ajit Pawar’s NCP has moved its MLAs to a five-star hotel near the airport in suburban Mumbai while MLAs from Shiv Sena gathered in Vidhan Bhavan complex on Wednesday morning for a meeting and then moved to a five-star hotel in Bandra. 

BJP MLAs are also at a luxury hotel, but the the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) has not made any such move. 

Jayant Patil, the Maharashtra president of the NCP, said, “We have full faith in our MLAs and don’t feel the need to keep them in five-star hotels.” 

Voting will take place from 9 am to 4 pm and counting of votes will begin an hour later. 

(With inputs from PTI)

New Delhi:

The Supreme Court on Thursday questioned the Maharashtra Speaker’s ruling on the Sena vs Sena dispute – in which the faction led by Eknath Shinde was declared the “real Sena” based on its “discernible legislative majority” – and asked if the conclusion was contrary to its instructions.

A bench led by Chief Justice DY Chandrachud made the oral observation as it heard pleas from the Uddhav Thackeray-led faction (or what was the united Shiv Sena) challenging Speaker Rahul Narwekar’s decision to not disqualify the MLAs – including Mr Shinde – who had switched to the BJP.

The court ordered the Speaker’s office to submit all original records pertaining to disqualification pleas filed by Mr Thackeray’s camp, and asked Mr Shinde’s camp to file a reply by April 1.

The summoning of records was in response to forgery allegations by the Shinde faction.

The next hearing will be in the second week of the same month, the court said, adding, it will also hear then objections by the Shinde side – that this matter is worthy of being heard by the top court.

The court also said it was keeping open the issue of maintainability of the petition.

READ | Thackeray Approaches Court Over Speaker’s “Real Shiv Sena” Decision

On January 10, Rahul Narwekar ruled in favour of the Shinde faction, calling it the “real Shiv Sena” and holding, therefore, that disqualification of its MLAs could not be sought by the Thackeray faction.

READ | Eknath Shinde Faction Is “Real Sena”, Says Speaker

He said he was relying on the legislative strength of the Shinde camp; his final ruling noted it had a strength of 37 of 55 seats (won by the then united Sena in the 2019 Assembly election).

However, in May last year, the Supreme Court had said the Speaker should not base his decision on “a blind appreciation of which group possess a majority in the Legislative Assembly”. The Constitution Bench of the court said a decision on the “real Sena” was more than numbers.

An incensed Mr Thackeray had called Mr Narwekar’s decision an “insult to the Supreme Court and (a) murder of democracy”. The former Chief Minister said the Speaker made a “thief” – a jab at to Eknath Shinde – “master of the House”, and had exceeded the brief given to him by the court.

READ | “Why Were We Not Disqualified,” Thackeray Questions Speaker

“The court had given a framework but he distorted it into something else… he thinks he is above the Supreme Court. He should have made laws against party-hopping stricter but was busy clearing a path for himself,” he said, pointing out also Mr Narwekar had “changed parties many times”.

After splitting in June 2022, the factions served a clutch of disqualification notices against each other. The Thackeray faction sought the removal of as many as 40 Shinde camp MLAs, which, in turn, wanted 14 of its rivals disqualified. The Speaker, though, had dismissed all these petitions.

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