Israeli airstrikes on Monday killed at 492, including 35 children, in Lebanon, marking the deadliest attack on the country in nearly two decades. This came just days after thousands of pagers, still used in the country, exploded and killed at least 32 people and injured scores of others. Lebanon claimed Israel was behind those explosions as well.

Tensions between Israel and militant-group Hezbollah have escalated on unprecedented levels in the last year after Hamas’ October 7 attack. Even though Hezbollah said it had nothing to do with the attack on Southern Israel, it has continued to support the militant group in Gaza where Israeli airstrikes have killed over 40,000 Palestinians and displaced nearly the entire population.  

The shadow war

The shadow war between Israeli intelligence agencies and Hezbollah goes back over 40 years. In the early 1980s, Israel invaded Lebanon to uproot the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). While Israel achieved an initial victory by forcing the PLO to withdraw from Beirut, a disastrous event in November 1982 marked the beginning of Israel’s ongoing struggle against Hezbollah. 

In one of the first major blows, a massive explosion destroyed the headquarters of Israel’s internal intelligence service, Shin Bet, in the town of Tyre, killing 91 people. It was revealed to be one of the first suicide car bombings, orchestrated by militant Shia Islamists who would later go on to form Hezbollah.

Hezbollah

Founded in 1983 with Iranian backing, Hezbollah quickly became one of Israel’s most formidable enemies. The organisation, adept at both guerilla warfare and covert operations, continued its efforts to destabilise Israeli targets both within and outside Lebanon. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, Hezbollah conducted numerous attacks, including the bombings of the US and French military barracks in Beirut. 

Hezbollah managed to fund its operations through a vast network of supporters, including in South America, which emerged as a key aspect of the shadow war. The organisation’s involvement in both legal and illegal activities, such as drug trafficking and money laundering, enabled it to amass significant resources, which Israel struggled to disrupt.

A prime example of Hezbollah’s global reach came in the early 1990s when following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Abbas al-Musawi by Israeli forces, the militant group retaliated by bombing the Israeli embassy and a Jewish community centre in Argentina’s Buenos Aires, killing over 100 people. 

Spy Ops

However, Israel’s spy agency Mossad also remained relentless. Mossad, in a series of high-profile assassinations, targeted senior Hezbollah and Iranian operatives involved in planning attacks against Israel.

The elusive Hezbollah military commander, Imad Mughniyeh, was a particular target of Israeli intelligence. Mughniyeh, credited with masterminding several high-profile attacks, including the 1983 bombings in Lebanon, evaded capture for decades. It wasn’t until 2008 that Israeli forces, along with the CIA, succeeded in killing Mughniyeh with a car bomb in Damascus.

Hezbollah retaliated with numerous attempts to target Israeli embassies and civilians, including the 2012 suicide bus bombing in Bulgaria that killed five Israelis.

This year, in July 2024, Israel successfully eliminated two high-ranking Hezbollah officials, Fuad Shukr and Ibrahim Aqil. They were involved in the 1980s attacks on Israeli forces in Lebanon.

The shadow war has not been limited to conventional or even guerilla tactics. One of the most infamous attacks came in the form of the Stuxnet computer virus, a joint Israeli-American operation that targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities in 2010. This cyberattack, which destroyed centrifuges at Iran’s Natanz facility, marked the first known instance of a cyber operation causing physical damage.

Most recently, Hezbollah and Israel have engaged in a new type of high-tech warfare. In September 2024, Hezbollah acknowledged that a series of attacks involving exploding pagers and walkie-talkies had inflicted severe damage on the group. The operations bore the hallmarks of Mossad even though Israel has not officially claimed responsibility.

Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, called Israel’s recent actions a “declaration of war”. 

The remains of a rocket booster that, according to Israeli authorities critically injured a 7-year-old girl, after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel, near Arad, Israel, April 14, 2024.

(These article is part of the View From India newsletter curated by The Hindu’s foreign affairs experts. To get the newsletter in your inbox every Monday, subscribe here.)

On April 19, five days after Iran launched an unprecedented missile and drone attack on Israel, Tel Aviv struck a base in the central Iranian province of Isfahan, unnamed American and Israeli officials told the U.S. media. Iran’s April 14 attack, involving over 300 drones, cruise and ballistic missiles, was a retaliation against an attack on its embassy complex on April 1 in which seven IRGC officers, including two senior Generals, were killed. Israeli leadership had vowed to respond to the Iranian attack, despite growing calls from its allies in the West for restraint. On April 19, Iranian state media reported explosions in Isfahan but ruled out any foreign attack. Israel did not publicly acknowledge that it carried out attack inside Iran. Its government remained tight-lipped while the only public response was from Itamar Ben Gvir, a far-right Minister, who left a one-word post on X, calling the attack ‘feeble’. U.S. officials spoke to the media only anonymously. In a public comment, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. was not involved in any retaliatory strike without confirming or dismissing reports that Israel carried out a strike inside Iran.

Compared to the massive barrage of the Iranian strike, Israel’s reported attack was largely symbolic. And by not claiming the attack, Israel offered an off-ramp to Iran. When Iranian officials dismissed reports an Israeli attack inside its territory, they actually took the de-escalation path. Both sides do not want a full-blown war, at least for now. The Biden administration reportedly worked behind the scene to avoid a regional war. According to the U.S. media, Israel carried out the April 1 bombing of Iran’s embassy complex in Damascus without prior consultation with the U.S. Immediately after Iran’s attack, Biden officials told the media that the President informed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. would not join any Israeli retaliatory attack on Iran. Mr. Biden’s argument was that Israeli, American, British, French and Jordanian defence systems and aircraft had intercepted “99%” of Iranian projectiles. Mr. Biden asked Mr. Netanyahu “to take the win” and do not escalate the crisis into a regional war, which is not in America’s interest. This practically limited Mr. Netanyahu’s options. The challenge before him was to retaliate without escalation. And that’s what he did with the symbolic strike with a path towards de-escalation.

But it doesn’t mean that the pre-April 1 status quo in the Iran-Israel shadow war can continue. In fact, the message from Tehran, when it launched a direct attack on Israel, was that it wanted to alter the status quo which allowed Israel to attack Iranian interests in Syria and Lebanon cost-free. Iran wanted to make it costly for Israel. Mr. Netanyahu, probably under American pressure or due to other strategic challenges he is facing today, backed off from hitting Iran hard. But does that mean that he would stop targeting Iranian interests in Syria? Rolling back Iran’s influence in its immediate neighbourhood has been a security priority for Israeli governments. If Israel continues to attack IRGC commanders in Syria, can Iran ignore them, especially after it launched such a heavy attack on Israel over the killing of IRGC officers? So the fault lines remain intact in the shadow war, even though both sides have backed off from the brink, for now.

Big win for Muizzu

Maldives’ ruling People’s National Congress (PNC) has secured a big win in the parliamentary elections on Sunday, giving President Mohamed Muizzu, who came to power last year on an anti-India campaign plank, significant control over the legislature. The leader, who wanted Indian military out of the island nation, has pledged to elevate strategic ties with China. Six political parties and several independent groups had fielded some 368 candidates for the 93 seats in Parliament or the People’s Majlis. The PNC, according to local media, was headed for a “super majority” in Parliament, with a likely win in nearly 60 out of the 93 seats, my colleague Meera Srinivasan reports. The Maldivian Parliament was earlier controlled by the Opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). The results appear to have strengthened the President’s hands.

The top five

1. Israel, a two-state solution, some recent perceptions

Writings and official Israeli assertions offer an idea of what ‘a Jewish national home’ and a long-standing dispute constitute, writes Hamid Ansari

2. A world in disarray, a concern about the future

The absence of leaders who command influence across the world, new alliances, economic issues and the progress of current technologies are some of the factors, writes M.K. Narayanan.

3. India’s Arctic imperative

While the Indian government seems keen to benefit from seabed mining and resource exploitation in the Arctic, it ought to unequivocally back a sustainable mode of extraction, write Abhijit Singh and Adreas Osthagen.

4. Lawrence Wong | Designated successor

Singapore’s new leader is now tasked with fortifying the ruling party’s walls and earning back the trust of the public that took a hit by scandals before next year’s general elections, writes Saumya Kalia.

5. Priyamvada Natarajan | Universe’s cartographer

The Coimbatore-born astrophysicist, whose works on black holes won global recognition, is on TIME magazine’s list of 100 most influential people in 2024, writes Arkatapa Basu.

New Delhi:

Israel, who has been waging a war against the terrorist organisation Hamas for six months, now needs to strengthen another front. Iran has said that it is prepared for war and will deliver a “slap” to Israel.

Iran’s remarks come after an Israel airstrike hit their consulate in Damascus, killing at least seven Iranians, including two generals. While Israel has repeatedly targeted Iran-linked assets in Syria over the past few months, this was the first time an attack struck an Iranian diplomatic building.

Israel has been on alert since then, canceling home leave for combat troops, calling up reserves, and bolstering air defenses. Its military scrambled navigational signals over Tel Aviv on Thursday to disrupt GPS-navigated drones or missiles that might be fired at the country.

Israel-Iran Shadow War: Origins

The roots of this shadow conflict trace back to the overthrow of Iran’s last monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, in 1979. Following the Islamic revolution, Iran’s leaders adopted an anti-Israel stance, aligning themselves with groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine.

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the revolution, brought about a new worldview that predominantly championed Islam. He called for a fight against “arrogant” world powers who oppress others – including Palestinians – to serve their interests.

The new government in Iran started referring to Israel as the “Little Satan” to the “Great Satan” that is the US.

Meanwhile, Israel perceives Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat and has allegedly conducted covert operations to thwart its atomic program.

The Battlegrounds

The clashes between Israel and Iran have not been limited to ideologies or proxy groups, with both countries often attacking the other. But both publicly deny carrying out the attacks, which is why the conflict has become known as a “shadow war” that has spread to several other countries in the region.

Lebanon serves as one of the battlegrounds in the shadow war between the two Middle Eastern nations, with Hezbollah emerging as a proxy for Iran’s interests in the region. Israeli incursions into Lebanon, coupled with Hezbollah’s rocket attacks into Israel, have perpetuated a cycle of violence along the border.

Syria’s civil war provided another theater for the conflict, as Iran bolstered its military presence to support President Bashar al-Assad and facilitate arms transfers to Hezbollah. In response, Israel has launched numerous airstrikes targeting Iranian assets in Syria, further escalating tensions.

Maritime incidents have also contributed to the hostility between the two adversaries, with attacks on commercial vessels suspected to be carried out by both Israel and Iran.

What Is Happening Now?

Suspected Israeli warplanes bombed Iran’s embassy in Damascus on Monday in a strike that killed an Iranian military commander and marked a major escalation in Israel’s war with its regional adversaries.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has said that seven Iranian military advisers died in the strike, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in its Quds Force, which is an elite foreign espionage and paramilitary arm.

Iran has said it reserves the right “to take a decisive response” and will deliver a “slap” to Israel.

Why Is US On High Alert

Amid the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, US President Joe Biden dialled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and assured him of support.

“Our teams have been in regular and continuous contact since then. The United States fully supports the defense of Israel against threats from Iran,” a senior Biden administration official said.

But just hours after the Biden call became public, Iran issued a statement warning the US to stay out of the conflict.

In a written message to Washington, Iran “warned the US not to get dragged into Netanyahu’s trap,” Mohammad Jamshidi, the Iranian president’s deputy chief of staff for political affairs, wrote on X, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The US should “step aside so that you don’t get hit.”

Is An All-Out War Between Israel And Iran A Possibility?

The specter of all-out war looms large, particularly concerning Iran’s nuclear program. Despite Iran’s claims of peaceful intent, Israeli officials remain sceptical, citing intelligence suggesting otherwise.

Israeli officials have repeatedly implied that if Iran were to reach the brink of weapons capability, they would attack its nuclear program using air power, as they did Iraq’s in 1981 and Syria’s in 2007.