The remains of a rocket booster that, according to Israeli authorities critically injured a 7-year-old girl, after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel, near Arad, Israel, April 14, 2024.

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On April 19, five days after Iran launched an unprecedented missile and drone attack on Israel, Tel Aviv struck a base in the central Iranian province of Isfahan, unnamed American and Israeli officials told the U.S. media. Iran’s April 14 attack, involving over 300 drones, cruise and ballistic missiles, was a retaliation against an attack on its embassy complex on April 1 in which seven IRGC officers, including two senior Generals, were killed. Israeli leadership had vowed to respond to the Iranian attack, despite growing calls from its allies in the West for restraint. On April 19, Iranian state media reported explosions in Isfahan but ruled out any foreign attack. Israel did not publicly acknowledge that it carried out attack inside Iran. Its government remained tight-lipped while the only public response was from Itamar Ben Gvir, a far-right Minister, who left a one-word post on X, calling the attack ‘feeble’. U.S. officials spoke to the media only anonymously. In a public comment, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. was not involved in any retaliatory strike without confirming or dismissing reports that Israel carried out a strike inside Iran.

Compared to the massive barrage of the Iranian strike, Israel’s reported attack was largely symbolic. And by not claiming the attack, Israel offered an off-ramp to Iran. When Iranian officials dismissed reports an Israeli attack inside its territory, they actually took the de-escalation path. Both sides do not want a full-blown war, at least for now. The Biden administration reportedly worked behind the scene to avoid a regional war. According to the U.S. media, Israel carried out the April 1 bombing of Iran’s embassy complex in Damascus without prior consultation with the U.S. Immediately after Iran’s attack, Biden officials told the media that the President informed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. would not join any Israeli retaliatory attack on Iran. Mr. Biden’s argument was that Israeli, American, British, French and Jordanian defence systems and aircraft had intercepted “99%” of Iranian projectiles. Mr. Biden asked Mr. Netanyahu “to take the win” and do not escalate the crisis into a regional war, which is not in America’s interest. This practically limited Mr. Netanyahu’s options. The challenge before him was to retaliate without escalation. And that’s what he did with the symbolic strike with a path towards de-escalation.

But it doesn’t mean that the pre-April 1 status quo in the Iran-Israel shadow war can continue. In fact, the message from Tehran, when it launched a direct attack on Israel, was that it wanted to alter the status quo which allowed Israel to attack Iranian interests in Syria and Lebanon cost-free. Iran wanted to make it costly for Israel. Mr. Netanyahu, probably under American pressure or due to other strategic challenges he is facing today, backed off from hitting Iran hard. But does that mean that he would stop targeting Iranian interests in Syria? Rolling back Iran’s influence in its immediate neighbourhood has been a security priority for Israeli governments. If Israel continues to attack IRGC commanders in Syria, can Iran ignore them, especially after it launched such a heavy attack on Israel over the killing of IRGC officers? So the fault lines remain intact in the shadow war, even though both sides have backed off from the brink, for now.

Big win for Muizzu

Maldives’ ruling People’s National Congress (PNC) has secured a big win in the parliamentary elections on Sunday, giving President Mohamed Muizzu, who came to power last year on an anti-India campaign plank, significant control over the legislature. The leader, who wanted Indian military out of the island nation, has pledged to elevate strategic ties with China. Six political parties and several independent groups had fielded some 368 candidates for the 93 seats in Parliament or the People’s Majlis. The PNC, according to local media, was headed for a “super majority” in Parliament, with a likely win in nearly 60 out of the 93 seats, my colleague Meera Srinivasan reports. The Maldivian Parliament was earlier controlled by the Opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). The results appear to have strengthened the President’s hands.

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New Delhi:

Israel, who has been waging a war against the terrorist organisation Hamas for six months, now needs to strengthen another front. Iran has said that it is prepared for war and will deliver a “slap” to Israel.

Iran’s remarks come after an Israel airstrike hit their consulate in Damascus, killing at least seven Iranians, including two generals. While Israel has repeatedly targeted Iran-linked assets in Syria over the past few months, this was the first time an attack struck an Iranian diplomatic building.

Israel has been on alert since then, canceling home leave for combat troops, calling up reserves, and bolstering air defenses. Its military scrambled navigational signals over Tel Aviv on Thursday to disrupt GPS-navigated drones or missiles that might be fired at the country.

Israel-Iran Shadow War: Origins

The roots of this shadow conflict trace back to the overthrow of Iran’s last monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, in 1979. Following the Islamic revolution, Iran’s leaders adopted an anti-Israel stance, aligning themselves with groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine.

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the revolution, brought about a new worldview that predominantly championed Islam. He called for a fight against “arrogant” world powers who oppress others – including Palestinians – to serve their interests.

The new government in Iran started referring to Israel as the “Little Satan” to the “Great Satan” that is the US.

Meanwhile, Israel perceives Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat and has allegedly conducted covert operations to thwart its atomic program.

The Battlegrounds

The clashes between Israel and Iran have not been limited to ideologies or proxy groups, with both countries often attacking the other. But both publicly deny carrying out the attacks, which is why the conflict has become known as a “shadow war” that has spread to several other countries in the region.

Lebanon serves as one of the battlegrounds in the shadow war between the two Middle Eastern nations, with Hezbollah emerging as a proxy for Iran’s interests in the region. Israeli incursions into Lebanon, coupled with Hezbollah’s rocket attacks into Israel, have perpetuated a cycle of violence along the border.

Syria’s civil war provided another theater for the conflict, as Iran bolstered its military presence to support President Bashar al-Assad and facilitate arms transfers to Hezbollah. In response, Israel has launched numerous airstrikes targeting Iranian assets in Syria, further escalating tensions.

Maritime incidents have also contributed to the hostility between the two adversaries, with attacks on commercial vessels suspected to be carried out by both Israel and Iran.

What Is Happening Now?

Suspected Israeli warplanes bombed Iran’s embassy in Damascus on Monday in a strike that killed an Iranian military commander and marked a major escalation in Israel’s war with its regional adversaries.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has said that seven Iranian military advisers died in the strike, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in its Quds Force, which is an elite foreign espionage and paramilitary arm.

Iran has said it reserves the right “to take a decisive response” and will deliver a “slap” to Israel.

Why Is US On High Alert

Amid the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, US President Joe Biden dialled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and assured him of support.

“Our teams have been in regular and continuous contact since then. The United States fully supports the defense of Israel against threats from Iran,” a senior Biden administration official said.

But just hours after the Biden call became public, Iran issued a statement warning the US to stay out of the conflict.

In a written message to Washington, Iran “warned the US not to get dragged into Netanyahu’s trap,” Mohammad Jamshidi, the Iranian president’s deputy chief of staff for political affairs, wrote on X, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The US should “step aside so that you don’t get hit.”

Is An All-Out War Between Israel And Iran A Possibility?

The specter of all-out war looms large, particularly concerning Iran’s nuclear program. Despite Iran’s claims of peaceful intent, Israeli officials remain sceptical, citing intelligence suggesting otherwise.

Israeli officials have repeatedly implied that if Iran were to reach the brink of weapons capability, they would attack its nuclear program using air power, as they did Iraq’s in 1981 and Syria’s in 2007.