Rwandan President Paul Kagame was gearing up on July 16 for a fourth term after winning a thundering 99.15% of votes according to partial results from an election where only two challengers were allowed to run against him.

The outcome of the July 15 poll was never in doubt, with Mr. Kagame ruling the small African nation with an iron fist as de facto leader then president for three decades.

Partial results issued by the election commission seven hours after polls closed showed that Mr. Kagame had won 99.15% of the vote — even more than the 98.79% he got in the last poll seven years ago.

Democratic Green Party candidate Frank Habineza could only muster 0.53% and independent Philippe Mpayimana 0.32%, according to the results issued with 79% of ballots counted.

In an address from the headquarters of his ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), the 66-year-old thanked Rwandans for giving him another five years in office.

“The results that have been presented indicate a very high score, these are not just figures, even if it was 100 percent, these are not just numbers,” he said.

“These figures show the trust, and that is what is most important,” he added.

“I am hopeful that together we can solve all problems.”

‘Safe and transparent’

With 65% of the population aged under 30, Mr. Kagame is the only leader most Rwandans have ever known.

The bespectacled 66-year-old is credited with rebuilding a traumatised nation after the 1994 genocide — but he is also accused of ruling in a climate of fear at home, and fomenting instability in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo.

Over nine million Rwandans — including two million first-time voters — were registered to cast their ballot, with the presidential race being held simultaneously as legislative elections for the first time.

In Kigali’s Nyabugogo market, shoppers were upbeat and unsurprised by the result.

“The reason he gets such high votes, which should be 100 percent, is because Rwandans love him,” pensioner Frederick Bayingana told AFP, listing Kagame’s accomplishments in providing “development”, “drinking water” and “security”.

“Today is a day for celebrations because this is the result I wanted,” motorcycle taxi driver Thomas Dushimirimana, 38, told AFP.

Full provisional results are due by July 20 and definitive results by July 27.

“In general, the electoral process happened in a safe and transparent atmosphere for Rwandans living abroad and at home,” the National Electoral Commission said.

Mr. Kagame won with more than 93% of the vote in 2003, 2010 and in 2017, when he again easily defeated the same two challengers.

He has overseen controversial constitutional amendments that shortened presidential terms from seven to five years but reset the clock for the Rwandan leader, allowing him to potentially rule until 2034.

‘Severe restrictions’

Rwandan courts had rejected appeals from prominent opposition figures Bernard Ntaganda and Victoire Ingabire to remove previous convictions that effectively disqualified them from the July 15 vote.

The election commission also barred high-profile Kagame critic Diane Rwigara, citing issues with her paperwork — the second time she was excluded from running.

Ahead of the vote, Amnesty International said Rwanda’s political opposition faced “severe restrictions… as well as threats, arbitrary detention, prosecution, trumped-up charges, killings and enforced disappearances”.

The imbalance between the candidates was evident during the three-week campaign, as the RPF’s well-oiled PR machine swung into high gear.

His rivals struggled to make their voices heard, with barely 100 people showing up to some events.

Mr. Kagame’s RPF militia is lauded for its role in ending the 1994 genocide — ousting the Hutu extremists who had unleashed 100 days of bloodletting targeting the Tutsi minority.

The perpetrators killed around 800,000 people, mainly Tutsis but also Hutu moderates.

Rwanda’s GDP has grown by an average of 7.2% per year between 2012 and 2022, although the World Bank says almost half the population lives on less than $2.15 a day.

Abroad, Kigali is accused of meddling in the troubled eastern DRC, where a U.N. report says its troops are fighting alongside M23 rebels.

In the parliamentary election, 589 candidates were chasing 80 seats, including 53 elected by universal suffrage.

In the outgoing assembly, the RPF held 40 seats and its allies 11, while Habineza’s party had two.

Another 27 spots are reserved for women, the youth and people with disabilities.

A small landlocked African nation playing in the big league: with military might, image branding and political influence, Rwanda under President Paul Kagame has become a major strategic player with tentacles spread far and wide.

De facto leader since the 1994 genocide and running for a fourth term as President in elections on Monday, the iron-fisted Kagame has established a sphere of influence far outweighing Rwanda’s size to develop the country and entrench his own power base.

Unlike many other African nations, “Rwanda is pursuing a real foreign policy strategy”, says Paul-Simon Handy, East Africa director at the Institute for Security Studies.

This strategy is similar to “smart power”, says Mr. Handy, combining hard power – the use of military and economic means for influence – and soft power.

The Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) is one of the pillars of this policy, though its role is contradictory.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has for years accused its neighbour of fomenting instability in the east and supporting armed groups, including the Tutsi-led M23, deploying troops and allegedly seeking to plunder its mineral wealth.

A recent UN experts report said 3,000-4,000 Rwandan soldiers are fighting alongside M23 rebels and that Kigali had “de facto control” of the group’s operations.

Questioned repeatedly on the issue, Mr. Kagame has not explicitly denied the presence of Rwandan forces in DRC, instead pointing to the “persecution” of the Tutsi minority and the risk of instability on Rwanda’s border.

“By nature, Rwanda’s security posture has always been defensive, not offensive. We only act when trouble is brought on us,” he said this month.

Its murky role in the DRC has however cost Kigali some financial support from the West, which since 2012-2013 has cut development aid and investment.

‘Africa’s policeman’

At the same time, Mr. Kagame has established his Army as the “policeman of Africa”.

Since 2024, the RDF has taken part in numerous UN peacekeeping missions. With 5,894 men deployed as of March 31, Rwanda is the fourth largest contributor, with forces in South Sudan and the Central African Republic.

“By participating in and leading peacekeeping and unilateral military missions, Rwanda has significantly enhanced its global image and strategic relevance beyond its historical association with the 1994 genocide,” said Federico Donelli, assistant professor of international relations at the University of Trieste.

It also reaps a financial windfall. The UN pays contributors $1,428 per soldier per month, meaning Kigali receives more than $100 million a year.

The RDF has also been deployed under bilateral deals with, for example, CAR and Mozambique.

These military commitments are often accompanied by economic agreements, offering development opportunities for Rwanda, which does not have its own natural resources or industrial base, and is reliant on international funding.

In CAR, Rwandans enjoy privileged investment access to sectors such as mining, agriculture and construction, often led by Crystal Ventures, an investment firm owned by Kagame’s ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF).

Diplomatic lever

These deals also represent a valuable diplomatic lever to ward off sanction threats over the DRC or its dismal human rights record.

“Rwanda has never hidden its threat to withdraw from peacekeeping operations if it were to be sanctioned,” Mr. Handy said.

“It has proven its effectiveness: DRC efforts to have Rwanda sanctioned for its support for the M23 were unsuccessful.”

Mr. Donelli said Kagame has an ability to read global dynamics. “He knows that Western actors are increasingly reluctant to get involved in African crises,” he added.

“In an increasingly chaotic regional context, he is using Rwanda’s role as a reliable partner in crises to reduce Western criticism and divert attention from domestic issues such as the lack of democratic development, centralisation of power and human rights concerns.”

Mr. Kagame is accused of authoritarian rule, muzzling the media and political opposition, while according to the World Bank, almost half the population lives on less than $2.15 a day.

But he has sought to burnish Rwanda’s image abroad — selling itself as an African flagship for new technology, a hub for conferences and major sporting events, and a leading ecotourism destination.

Sponsorship deals have seen “Visit Rwanda” emblazoned on the shirts of European football teams Arsenal, PSG and Bayern Munich.

Rwanda has also boosted its presence in global organisations.

In 2009, it became a member of the Commonwealth and hosted its 2022 summit, while a former Minister is head of the International Organisation of La Francophonie (French-speaking union), and another serves as deputy chair of the African Union Commission.

Mr. Handy says Rwanda’s “smart power” was illustrated by the controversial deal to take in asylum seekers deported from Britain.

Widely condemned by rights groups and blocked by the U.K. courts, the scheme has now been scrapped by Britain’s new government.