FILE PHOTO: An aerial view shows the crude oil terminal Kozmino on the shore of Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia June 13, 2022. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo
| Photo Credit: Reuters

Chinese and Indian refiners are seeking alternative fuel supplies as they adapt to severe new U.S. sanctions on Russian producers and tankers that are designed to curb the revenues of the world’s second-largest oil exporter.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration imposed its broadest package of sanctions so far targeting Russia’s oil and gas revenues on Friday (January 10, 2025) to give Kyiv and Donald Trump’s incoming team leverage to reach a deal for peace in Ukraine.

The incoming Mr. Trump administration has not yet responded to requests for comment.

The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, as well as on 183 vessels that form part of a shadow fleet that has so far allowed Russia to skirt sanctions to get its oil to global markets.

According to Morgan Stanley, which cited data from tanker tracker Vortexa, the tankers subject to the latest sanctions carried around 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2024. That equates to around 1.4% of global oil demand.

Many of them have been used to ship oil to India and China as Western sanctions and a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven countries in 2022 shifted trade in Russian oil from Europe to Asia. In addition, some tankers have shipped oil from Iran, which is also under sanctions.

Oil prices have jumped. Global benchmark Brent crude rose on Monday (January 14, 2025) above $81 a barrel to its highest since August and the premium of prompt crude to that for delivery six months later has risen to its highest since April, implying traders expect supplies to remain tight.

The Kremlin said the sanctions risked destabilising global markets, and Moscow would seek to counter them.

“It is clear that the United States will continue to try to undermine the positions of our companies in non-competitive ways, but we expect that we will be able to counteract this,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday (January 14, 2025).

Washington also imposed sanctions on top Russian ship insurer Ingosstrakh and another insurance provider Alphastrakhovanie.

It was unclear what would happen to the vessels whose insurance was unknown in the event of any environmental disaster and what mechanisms would be in place for clean-up costs or for insurance claims.

Adaptation?

China has reiterated its opposition to unilateral U.S. sanctions.

Analysts said the new sanctions were likely to reduce Russian oil exports in the short term, but Russia could adapt by using the vessels in its shadow fleet that are still not under sanctions.

Analysts also said the true size of Russia’s shadow fleet was unknown, but it was estimated to comprise close to 600 tankers.

Since the new sanctions, at least 65 oil tankers have dropped anchor at multiple locations, including off the coasts of China and Russia, ship tracking data showed.

Five of those were stationary off Chinese ports and a further seven dropped anchor off Singapore, with others halting near Russia in the Baltic Sea and the Far East.

Shandong Port Group banned tankers under U.S. sanctions from calling at its ports before Washington’s announcement on Friday (January 10, 2025).

The severity of the new measures has for now driven Chinese refiners back to sellers of oil that is not restricted, pushing up the spot markets for some regional crudes, as well as adding upward momentum on the global oil market.

“Chinese refiner Yulong Petrochemical has previously bought Russian ESPO Blend crude, but over the weekend bought 4 million barrels of Abu Dhabi’s Upper Zakum crude loading in February and March from Totsa,” the trading arm of French energy major TotalEnergies, traders said.

In recent weeks, it has also purchased Angolan and Brazilian crude, traders said, and is in talks to buy more oil from West Africa as well as Canada.

China’s Unipec on Friday (January 10, 2025) also booked four very large crude carriers, which can carry up to 2 million barrels of crude, from the Middle East, figures from data intelligence firm Kpler showed.

The numerous sources Reuters spoke to declined to be named as they were not authorised to speak to media. Yulong and Totsa typically do not comment on commercial deals.

Two-month transition period

Currently, over 60% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports go to India, the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer.

Although Indian refiners have stopped dealing with oil tankers and entities under U.S. sanctions, the country does not expect disruption to Russian crude supplies during a two-month transition period, a government source said on Monday (January 14, 2025).

India will allow Russian oil cargoes booked before Jan. 10 to discharge at ports, the source said, adding that Russia could also offer deeper discounts to India to meet a $60 a barrel price cap imposed by Group of Seven countries in 2022. Shipments below that level can use western tankers and insurance.

Moscow-based Sinara Bank also said temporary discounts were possible for Russia’s flagship Urals oil blend to dated Brent.

Traders said Indian refiners, which bought spot Middle East crude last week before the sanctions were announced, were seeking more cargoes.

India’s Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd bought 2 million barrels of February-loading Oman crude from Totsa via a tender last week, two people familiar with the matter said.

Chinese and Indian refiners will source more oil from the Middle East, Africa and the Americas, boosting prices and freight costs, as new U.S. sanctions on Russian producers and ships curb supplies to Moscow’s top customers, traders and analysts said.

The U.S. Treasury on Friday (January 10, 2025) imposed sanctions on Russian oil producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil, targeting the revenues Moscow has used to fund its war with Ukraine.

Many of the tankers have been used to ship oil to India and China as western sanctions and a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven countries in 2022 shifted trade in Russian oil from Europe to Asia. Some tankers have also shipped oil from Iran, which is also under sanctions.

Russian oil exports will be hurt severely by the new sanctions, which will force Chinese independent refiners to cut refining output going forward, two Chinese trade sources said. The sources declined to be named as they are not authorised to speak to media.

Among the newly sanctioned ships, 143 are oil tankers that handled more than 530 million barrels of Russian crude last year, about 42% of the country’s total seaborne crude exports, Kpler’s lead freight analyst Matt Wright said in a note.

Of these, about 300 million barrels was shipped to China while the bulk of the remainder went to India, he added.

Sanctions reducing the fleet of ships

“These sanctions will significantly reduce the fleet of ships available to deliver crude from Russia in the short term, pushing freight rates higher,” Wright said.

A Singapore-based trader said the designated tankers shipped close to 900,000 bpd of Russian crude to China over the past 12 months.

“It’s going to drop off a cliff,” he added.

For the first 11 months last year, India’s Russian crude imports rose 4.5% on year to 1.764 million bpd, or 36% of India’s total imports. China’s volume, including pipeline supply, was up 2% at 99.09 million metric tons (2.159 million bpd), or 20% of its total imports, over the same period.

China’s imports are mostly Russian ESPO Blend crude, sold above the price cap, while India buys mostly Urals oil.

Vortexa analyst Emma Li said Russian ESPO Blend crude exports would be halted if the sanctions were strictly enforced, but it would depend on whether U.S. President-elect Donald Trump lifted the embargo and also whether China acknowledged the sanctions.

What are the alternatives available?

The new sanctions will push China and India back into the compliant oil market to seek more supply from the Middle East, Africa and the Americas, the sources said.

Spot prices for Middle East, Africa and Brazilian grades have already risen in recent months on rising demand from China and India as supplies of Russian and Iranian oil tightened and became more expensive, they added.

“Already, prices are rising for Middle Eastern grades,” said an Indian oil refining official.

“There is no option than that we have to go for Middle Eastern oil. Perhaps we may have to go for U.S. oil as well.”

A second Indian refining source said the sanctions on Russian oil insurers will prompt Russia to price its crude below $60 a barrel so Moscow can continue to use Western insurance and tankers.

Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group said: “Indian refiners, the main takers of Russian crude, are unlikely to wait around to find out and will be scrambling to find alternatives in Middle Eastern and Dated-Brent related Atlantic Basin crude.

“Strength in the Dubai benchmark can only rise from here as we are likely to see aggressive bidding for February loading cargoes of the likes of Oman or Murban, leading to a tighter Brent/Dubai spread,” he added.

Last month, the Biden administration designated more ships dealing with Iranian crude ahead of tougher action expected from the incoming Trump administration, leading the Shandong Port Group to ban sanctioned tankers from calling into its ports in the eastern Chinese province.

As a result, China, the main buyer of Iranian crude, will also turn to heavier Middle Eastern oil and most likely will maximise its offtake of Canadian crude from the Trans-Mountain pipeline (TMX), Tchilinguirian said.